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Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall demand for maple syrup has been rapidly rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Yet because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as the region’s climate changes. The distribution of sugar maple could move north into Canada and the sap flow season may become shorter in the future. Not only could these changes affect producers and consumers...
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In order to assess and understand the potential impacts of climate change on important natural resources, managers, planners, and decision-makers need climate information at a local or regional scale. In general, Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide data at coarser scales than most natural resource managers need but Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are starting to deliver finer scale results. The project team will explore both dynamic downscaling products such as results from RCMs and statistical downscaling products generated at scales finer than the original projections. The Northwest CSC has supported a series of projects that have either generated or tested downscaled climate data for the Pacific Northwest...
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Climate change is poised to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events – such as tornadoes, flooding, drought, and snowstorms – which may damage buildings and other structures, cause economic hardship, disrupt plant and wildlife communities, and endanger people’s physical and emotional health. The purpose of this project was to enhance the knowledge of local tribal environmental professionals in Oklahoma related to planning for extreme weather events as a result of climate change. Researchers hosted a one-day workshop at the University of Oklahoma (OU) that was attended by professionals representing at least five tribes, as well as interdisciplinary scholars and students engaged in climate...
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As the dominant force that sets the structure and function of most Pacific Northwest forests, fire is likely to be the major catalyst of forest change in a warming climate. Rising temperatures, decreased snowpack, and earlier snowmelt are expected to lead to longer fire seasons, drier fuel, and an increase in the area burned by wildfires in the future. Forest managers therefore need information on how wildfire patterns and forests will change as the climate warms, in order to guide management activities that can sustain the important ecosystem services that forests provide – including timber production, carbon storage, improved water quality, and recreational opportunities. To address this need, researchers developed...
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Oregon’s Upper Klamath Basin is one of the warmest watersheds in the Pacific Northwest. Despite its naturally warm waters, the basin supports abundant redband trout. These are some of the largest-bodied trout in the entire U.S., and are a culturally and economically important species, providing the last remaining subsistence fishery for the Klamath Tribes and drawing recreational anglers. The ability of this coldwater species to survive in one of the region’s warmest watersheds could hold valuable clues for conservation in the face of warming global temperatures, which represents one of the biggest threats to North America’s coldwater fish. Previous research has found that redband trout rely heavily on spring-fed...
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HawaiÊ»i is home to a rich diversity of native plants, about 90 percent of which are found nowhere else in the world. However, changing climate conditions may reduce the amount of suitable habitat for native plants and contribute to the spread of invasive plant species. The goal of this project was to better understand how Hawaiian native and invasive plants will respond to climate change. Scientists focused on 10 important native and five important invasive plant species, using over 35 years of data from thousands of locations in Hawai‘i to assess the plants’ preferred climate conditions and model their likely best future habitat based on climate change projections. The resulting maps and findings provide an initial...
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Hawaiian forest birds play important roles in many ecological processes. For example, 61% of native flowering Hawaiian plant species are either bird pollinated or dispersed through ingestion by birds. However, native bird communities across Hawaiʻi continue to decline despite efforts to control predators and enhance habitat. These declines are, in part, due to the mosquito-borne avian pox and avian malaria. Scientific forecasts of the impact of avian disease on native bird populations under various climate change scenarios predict severe declines and species extinctions in all remaining forest habitat within the next 50 years. While little can currently be done to mitigate the effects of climate change on disease...
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In the western U.S., rising temperatures and pronounced drought conditions pose significant challenges to public land managers. Widespread declines of multiple plant species have already been observed, providing insight into what the future could look like for vegetation in the region as conditions are projected to become warmer and drier. To understand how vulnerable western ecosystems are to drought, managers need to know which climatic and soil conditions cause habitats to change, and at what rate these changes may occur – important topics on which there is little available data. This project seeks to identify the vulnerability of habitats in the western U.S. to drought. Researchers will compare changes in...
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Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in walleye and other native fishes, and worsening water quality due to increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation, has prompted concern among regional anglers who may abandon certain fisheries as these changes occur. Understanding how changes in climate may affect glacial lakes region fishes, and how fishery managers...
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Extreme events not only affect people but can have detrimental impacts on natural resources, such as fish and freshwater habitats. Impacts of extreme events, like hurricanes, tornadoes, and extreme flooding, have immediate consequences, but also have the ability to alter habitats and animals far in the future by providing opportunities for exotic species to colonize new areas. Some fish communities in streams, rivers, and lakes may have the natural ability to resist the long-term impacts of extreme weather events. In this project, researchers will investigate the ability of Caribbean fish assemblages in Puerto Rico, which have both economic and cultural importance, to resist the impacts of extreme weather events....
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In order for science to have the most impact on resource management, it needs to directly address the questions that managers and other stakeholders have. Essentially, the ways in which researchers and resource managers collaborate can affect the use of scientific information in decision-making. Previous research has shown that relatively more collaboration between researchers and resource managers (or even the general public) tends to lead to more and more effective use of new scientific information. However, we do not yet have good ways to evaluate these research processes or the outcomes we expect them to produce. This project will assess the key variables necessary for the successful production of usable climate...
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For centuries, tribal and indigenous communities have relied on natural resources to sustain their families, communities, traditional ways of life, and cultural identities. This relationship with both land and water ecosystems makes indigenous people and cultures particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In 2015, the Southwest Climate Science Center partnered with the University of Arizona Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions (CCASS) to develop regional capacity for engagement with tribes to support climate change adaptation. CCASS is now building on the success of the 2015 project and is strengthening partnerships to support the climate adaptation capacity of tribes in the Southwest....
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The Interior Southwest (Arizona, Nevada, and Utah) is home to a vast and diverse geography consisting of deep canyons, great expanses of desert, mountain ranges, and forests, as well as diverse human communities. The majority of the land in these states is held by state, federal and tribal entities; and environmental changes pose challenges to the management of these public and tribal lands across the region. Assessing and addressing the information needs of federal, state, and tribal resource managers is a critical part of helping these decision-makers manage risk and adapt to these changes. Identification and evaluation of existing barriers and opportunities for knowledge exchange between scientists and managers...
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Estimates of water flows in streams are critical to inform natural resource managers of water availability for both human and ecological needs. Monitoring flow in the stream using a streamgage provides information about the amount and timing of surface water resources. However, not every stream has a streamgage and decisions about water resources may need to be made in a watershed where there is no flow information. Hydrologic models can be used to provide estimates of streamflow in the absence of streamflow information. These models depend upon available streamflow data for calibration, and can be very inaccurate without the use of those data. This research developed a method to group watersheds that are gaged...
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The gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a familiar species across the southeastern Coastal Plain, but its population has declined significantly over the decades. One reason is that much of its primary habitat, sparse stands of mature pine, has been replaced by development or agriculture. Another is that periodic ground fires, which are important for providing needed forage for the tortoise, have been largely suppressed on the landscape. The gopher tortoise is a “keystone” species, meaning that its disappearance from the landscape would jeopardize the existence of many other species that make use of its underground burrows. Besides tortoise habitat, the uplands of the Coastal Plain contain isolated seasonal...
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Improving the quality of habitat for western big-game species, such as elk and mule deer, was identified as a priority by the Department of the Interior in 2018. Maintaining healthy herds not only supports the ecosystems where these species are found, but also the hunting and wildlife watching communities. For example, in Wyoming, big game hunting contributed over $300 million to the state’s economy in 2015. Yet as climate conditions change, the quantity, quality, and timing of vegetation available to mule deer, elk, and other ungulates, known as forage, could shift. It’s possible that these changes could have cascading impacts on the behavior and population sizes of many species. A key strategy used by managers...
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Tribes and tribal lands in the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains region are already experiencing the effects of climate change, and tribal managers are also already responding to and preparing for the impacts of those changes. However, these managers face many challenges and obstacles to either completing and/or implementing their adaptation plans. The overall goal of this project is to provide tribal managers in this region the opportunity to share experiences, challenges, and successes with each other in order to support climate adaptation efforts. The project researchers will plan and conduct a workshop for tribes in the north central region that are in some stage of climate adaptation planning or implementation....
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In the Great Plains, climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense droughts, severe rainfall events, and heat waves. Adapting to changing conditions will require coordination in the research and observation capabilities of multiple organizations, institutions, and government programs. In light of these needs, researchers worked with federal, state, tribal, university, and non-governmental organization partners to (1) synthesize the current state of ecosystems in the Great Plains; (2) assess the ability of human and ecological communities in the region to adapt to climate change; and (3) develop a process to improve future assessments of the vulnerability of the region’s natural and cultural resources...
map background search result map search result map Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Great Plains Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation Identifying Tribal Vulnerabilities and Supporting Planning for Extreme Weather Events Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Producing Impactful Science: The Effect of Stakeholder Engagement Strategies on the Use of Climate Science in Management Decisions Estimating Future Water Availability and Streamflow in the Southeast Continued Partnerships to Increase Capacity for Tribal Natural Resource Adaptation Planning Spoilt for Choice: A Review and Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Data for the Pacific Northwest Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming Supporting Tribal Climate Adaptation in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Region Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest How Will Coldwater Fish Survive in a Warming Future? Identifying Life-Stage Specific Use of Coldwater Refugia in the Klamath Basin and Willamette River Building Knowledge Exchange Networks to Support Climate Adaptation in the Interior Southwest Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Assessing Mosquito Populations on the Island of Hawai'i to Help Limit the Spread of Avian Diseases and Inform the Conservation of Hawaiian Forest Birds How Will Coldwater Fish Survive in a Warming Future? Identifying Life-Stage Specific Use of Coldwater Refugia in the Klamath Basin and Willamette River Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Identifying Tribal Vulnerabilities and Supporting Planning for Extreme Weather Events Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest Spoilt for Choice: A Review and Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Data for the Pacific Northwest Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming Producing Impactful Science: The Effect of Stakeholder Engagement Strategies on the Use of Climate Science in Management Decisions Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Estimating Future Water Availability and Streamflow in the Southeast Building Knowledge Exchange Networks to Support Climate Adaptation in the Interior Southwest Supporting Tribal Climate Adaptation in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Region Continued Partnerships to Increase Capacity for Tribal Natural Resource Adaptation Planning Potential Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Great Plains Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple