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Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees. Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project...
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Water is a key ecosystem service that provides life to vegetation, animals, and human communities. The distribution and flow of water on a landscape influences many ecological functions, such as the distribution and health of vegetation and soil development and function. However, the future of many important water resources remains uncertain. Reduced snowfall and snowpack, earlier spring runoff, increased winter streamflow and flooding, and decreased summer streamflow have all been identified as potential impacts to water resources due to climate change. These factors all influence the water balance in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest (PCTR). Ensuring healthy flow and availability of water resources is...
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The western coast of Alaska is a remote region, rich in wildlife and providing critical nesting habitat for many of Alaska’s seabirds. It is also home to indigenous communities who rely upon the region’s natural resources to support a traditional lifestyle of hunting, gathering, and fishing. Although the region is frequently subject to extensive inland flooding from Bering Sea storms, little is known about the extent and frequency of flooding and its impacts on vegetation, wildlife, and water quality. Furthermore, information is lacking about how climate change and sea-level rise (which can influence the frequency and intensity of storms and subsequent flooding) are affecting this area, its communities, and their...
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Alaska has complex topography, with its extensive coastlines, dozens of islands, and mountain ranges that contain the tallest peaks in North America. Topography can have a strong influence on temperature and precipitation, therefore accurate representations of the terrain can improve the quality of simulations of past and future climate conditions. The spatial resolution of globally-available climate data is typically too coarse (~80 to 100 km) to adequately detect local landscape features, meaning these models aren’t useful for predicting future conditions in Alaska. In order for the state to adequately prepare for and adapt to changing conditions, high-resolution climate data is needed. One solution for acquiring...
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Through its many research projects and initiatives, the Alaska Climate Science Center (AK CSC) collects important scientific data that can be shared and used by resource managers in decision-making or other scientists who may access and use the data to move forward the state of the science on a particular topic. The University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), through the work of staff at its International Arctic Research Center (IARC), has become one of the primary providers of data services for the Alaska CSC to help make this data available and accessible and to ensure that it meets required standards and is properly managed, stored, and used. In particular, ongoing UAF data stewardship activities include ensuring that...
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Suicide Basin is a glacier-fed lake that branches off Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau, Alaska. Since 2011, Suicide Basin has been collecting melt- and rainwater each summer, creating a temporary glacier-dammed lake. Water that accumulates typically gets released through channels that run beneath the glacier. These channels are normally blocked by ice, but if the water pressure gets too high the channel breaks open, rapidly draining the basin in what is known as an “outburst flood”. In past years, these events have led to flooding along Mendenhall Lake and Mendenhall River in the most heavily populated neighborhood of Juneau. Because of the threats posed to infrastructure in the Mendenhall Valley, it is critical that...
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The Hawai‘i Drought Knowledge Exchange project has been successfully piloting three sets of formal collaborative knowledge exchanges between researchers and managers to co-produce customized, site specific drought data products to meet the needs of their partners. Through these pilots, knowledge co-production has demonstrated how active collaboration between researchers and managers in the design and production of data products can lead to more useful and accessible applications for drought planning and management. Resource managers have strongly embraced the need for better and more timely information on climate change, variability and drought, as these stressors exert a large and costly impact on resources...
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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Water management in the middle portion of the Rio Grande Basin (between Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico and Presidio, Texas) is challenging because water demand has continued to increase over time despite limited river water and dropping groundwater levels. While urban and agricultural users can cope with frequent droughts by using a combination of river water and pumping groundwater, little to no water reaches living river ecosystems in this region. Improving this situation requires a good understanding of river water and groundwater availability, now and in the future, as well as advantages and disadvantages of water management options to sustain these ecosystems. In particular, there is a need to determine...
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Forests in the eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest, and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees celsius. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous...
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has worked diligently to build new partnerships between scientists and resource managers to help address the science needs and questions of their stakeholders through actionable science. However, the growth of their stakeholder base and the loss of the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives has led to unmet demand for climate “extension services” from stakeholders. This project plans to establish a new scientist position at the South Central CASC focused on climate extension services and research coordination to help discover needed science solutions and to facilitate connections between the researcher and practitioner communities. The Climate Extension...
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Developing novel solutions to complex problems demands innovative approaches that are inclusive of diverse perspectives from both scientific experts and stakeholders. Across networked communities, like the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC), it can sometimes be challenging to identify and build collaborations among researchers from different disciplines. Particularly at times like the present, during a global pandemic and recovery from its impact, a means to support a diverse, integrated and engaged network is essential for producing innovative outcomes for complex problems relevant to our changing climate. One method to foster more engaged networks is through the use of Exaptive’s Cognitive...
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The Science Issue and Relevance: Coastal wetlands are some of the most productive and valuable habitats in the world. Louisiana contains 40% of the United States’ coastal wetlands, which provide critical habitat for waterfowl and fisheries, as well as many other benefits, such as storm surge protection for coastal communities. In terms of ecosystem services, biological resource production, and infrastructure investments, the value of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands exceeds $100 billion. Thus, stakeholders are gravely concerned about sea-level rise which is causing coastal marsh habitat to convert to open water and resulting in the highest rates of wetland loss in the world, with nearly 1.2 million acres lost since...
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While 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean (whose geography is contained within the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative, or CLCC), the low variability and already high annual average temperatures suggest that the largest climate-related impact on ecosystems and water resources is more likely to be through changes in the timing, pattern, and availability of moisture. The development of adaptation strategies that respond to anthropogenic climate change for the CLCC, and particularly for Puerto Rico, is currently hindered by the lack of local-scale climate scenarios that resolve the complex topographical and meso-scale climate features that will...
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Coastal marshes are vital habitats that protect and support our coastal communities and economies by providing protection from storm surge, filtering pollutants, and providing recreational opportunities. Rising sea levels threaten marshes and jeopardize the benefits they provide to human communities and ecosystems. To preserve these benefits, coastal resource managers need to understand how marshes will change in the short- and long-term in response to rising sea levels. Scientific models provide resource managers with an effective way to visualize and understand these changes, but the numerous choices of marsh models currently available can be overwhelming to coastal managers. The similarities and differences...
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Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly defined regions, and expectations that tropical environments will experience greater changes in temperature. Tropical island communities are faced with making important decisions related to adaptation that could impact the health of important natural resources and ecosystems. However, a lack of scientific guidance and information...
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Coral reefs are some of the most biologically rich and economically valuable ecosystems in the world. They provide food, fishing, and recreation opportunities for millions of people, protect coastlines from storms, and shelter thousands of plant and animal species. However, climate change is contributing to the degradation of coral reefs in two significant ways: warming temperature and increasing acidification of ocean waters. Scientists are actively working to gather more specific information about how these factors will impact coral reef ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to identify differences in climate vulnerability among three important reef-building coral species in the Florida Keys. Researchers...
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The Global Change Graduate Fellows Program is designed to train the next generation of global change scientists by providing financial, scientific, and professional development support for graduate students who are interested in multi-disciplinary research. They come together across disciplines to discover, collaborate, and share their knowledge with diverse stakeholders. Additionally, students need to be dedicated to making the science related to climate change better, where better means more true, of a greater impact, or, as our land grant mission dictates, more ethical and just. This program is sponsored by the USGS Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and NC State University. Applicants must be an NC...
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Coastal ecosystems are uniquely vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of freshwater discharge. With a warming climate, changes in freshwater discharge into estuaries will interact with rising sea levels. Coastal natural resource managers need guidance on the potential impacts and vulnerabilities to better manage the risks to aquatic species and habitats and to mitigate species decline or collapse resulting from changes in freshwater availability. This project will inform resource managers on the development of management plans that protect coastal ecosystems and species while accounting for changes in freshwater availability under climate uncertainty. To achieve this, the proposed project has three objectives....
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In many places around the world, spring events, like warming temperatures, are coming earlier and fall events are coming later than they have in the past. These changes have implications for the phenology, or the timing of natural life events (e.g. the timing of plant flowering in Spring or leaves falling in Autumn), of many plant species. However, not all species and regions are changing at the same rate, which can lead to mismatches (e.g. between the emergence of plants and pollinators in early spring). Many interactions in nature depend on timing and, as such, phenology affects nearly all aspects of the environment, including the abundance, distribution, and diversity of organisms, ecosystem services, food webs,...
map background search result map search result map Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Impact of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Growth of Reef-Building Corals Modeling Future Storm Impacts on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Projecting the Future Distribution and Flow of Water in Alaskan Coastal Forest Watersheds Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments Improving the Accessibility and Usability of Scientific Data: Data Management and Data Services for the Alaska CSC Understanding Changes to the Timing of Natural Events (Phenology) for Plants in the Water-Limited Southwest Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Climate Extension Services for the South Central U.S. Optimizing Data and Discovery Knowledge Transfer Across Researchers and Stakeholders Using Innovative Technology (“Cognitive Cities”) Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Scaling up the Hawai‘i Drought Knowledge Exchange: Expanding Stakeholder Reach and Capacity to Address Climate Change, Variability, and Drought Global Change Fellows Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Modeling Future Storm Impacts on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Understanding New Paradigms for “Environmental Flows” and Water Allocation in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in a Changing Climate Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean Projecting the Future Distribution and Flow of Water in Alaskan Coastal Forest Watersheds Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Impact of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Growth of Reef-Building Corals Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Understanding Changes to the Timing of Natural Events (Phenology) for Plants in the Water-Limited Southwest Improving the Usability of Modeling Tools for Predicting Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise Scaling up the Hawai‘i Drought Knowledge Exchange: Expanding Stakeholder Reach and Capacity to Address Climate Change, Variability, and Drought Climate Extension Services for the South Central U.S. Optimizing Data and Discovery Knowledge Transfer Across Researchers and Stakeholders Using Innovative Technology (“Cognitive Cities”) Global Change Fellows Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species Improving the Accessibility and Usability of Scientific Data: Data Management and Data Services for the Alaska CSC