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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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Sagebrush steppe is one of the most widely distributed ecosystems in North America. Found in eleven western states, this important yet fragile ecosystem is dominated by sagebrush, but also contains a diversity of native shrubs, grasses, and flowering plants. It provides critical habitat for wildlife like pronghorn and threatened species such as the greater sage-grouse, and is grazed by livestock on public and private lands. However, this landscape is increasingly threatened by shifts in wildfire patterns, the spread of invasive grasses, and changing climate conditions. While sagebrush is slow to recover after fires, non-native grasses such as cheatgrass thrive in post-fire conditions and the spread of these species...
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The northwestern United States (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana) are experiencing increasing air temperatures, declines in snowpack, altered hydrology, and more frequent and severe wildfire, drought, and insect and disease outbreaks as a result of climate change. These factors, alone and in combination with existing non-climate stressors, present a significant challenge to the natural and cultural resources of the region as well as to the managers tasked with their protection. While adaptation strategies and actions offer a path forward in the face of climate change, resource management decision-making is complicated by the multitude of adaptation options that have already been identified for the...
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As temperature and precipitation patterns change, different species in different areas will be affected in different ways. Some places may serve as refuges for wildlife—places where animals can remain or to which they can easily move to escape the worst impacts of climate change. This project will establish a Refugia Research Coalition to leverage recently funded Northwest CASC research projects on the topic of ecological refugia. The goal of this collaborative effort will be to synthesize our understanding of ecological refugia in the Pacific Northwest and how best to use refugia-related research products as tools for adaptive management planning in the region. Ecological refugia will be an important means of protecting...
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Surface-water availability has been identified as one of the biggest issues facing society in the 21st century. Where and when water is on the landscape can have profound impacts on the economy, wildlife behavior, recreational use, industrial practices, energy development, and many other aspects of life, society, and the environment. Projections indicate that surface-water availability will be generally reduced in the future because of multiple factors including climate change, increased drought frequency and severity, and altered water and land use. Thus, it is important resource managers understand which areas are most vulnerable to reduced water availability impacts, and to what extent current conditions may...
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Forests west of the Cascade Crest in Oregon and Washington have been shaped by infrequent but severe wildfires that historically occurred at intervals spanning several centuries. Since the mid-1900s, relatively few fires have occurred in the region, resulting in a general lack of understanding of the drivers of these fires, the impacts on ecosystems, and possible management responses. Most of the current regional understanding of fire regimes and impacts instead comes from the drier, interior forests. However, recent fire events between 2014 and 2018 (e.g., the Norse Peak Fire in Washington) have raised concern among land managers in the Pacific Northwest about fire risk in a warming climate. This project will...
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Climate change impacts on forests, including drought and wildfire, are of increasing concern to managers, conservationists, researchers, and culture bearers in the Pacific Northwest. Warmer temperatures exacerbate forest stress by accelerating evaporation and drying-out of the land surface and vegetation. These hotter drought conditions have been implicated in recent tree mortality events regionally and across the globe. Managers need science-based tools to assess risks posed by droughts, heat waves, and other climate-induced stressors, as well as practical solutions for adapting current management practices. The realities of climate change have spurred interest in tailoring silvicultural practices to increase forest...
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Vegetation transformations after wildfires are a growing issue for forest and shrubland managers in the Inland Pacific Northwest. Severe fires combined with persistent drought and invasive species can slow or prevent the recovery of burned forests and shrublands to their pre-fire states, resulting in ecological, economic, and cultural losses. Forests may be converted to shrub fields or grasslands, and shrublands may be replaced by invasive grasses. While shrublands and grasslands can be important components of these ecosystems, there is growing concern about the increased extent of these vegetation types on the landscape. Despite the severe post-fire vegetation transformations, little is known about where, when,...
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Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Northwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and ecosystem responses, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about projected future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An accessible and forward-looking summary of what we know about the “future of fire” is urgently required in the Northwest and across the country to support...
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Project Overview: Native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYA) are ecologically and socio-economically important species, but are threatened by drought, rising water temperatures, habitat loss, and non-native species. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will use climate data and extensive population records to assess the various threats to the species and to create a data visualization tool to help managers prioritize conservation actions for these vulnerable and valuable fish populations. Project Summary: In the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), drought, rising water temperatures, habitat loss, and non-native species are threatening the...
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Climate change is contributing to an increase in wildfire activity in the western United States, including the Blue Mountains and Eastern Cascades Slopes and Foothills of the Inland Northwest. Some forest ecosystems are changing from forest to non-forest because of severe fires, a hot and dry climate, and/or the absence of a viable seed source. On sites impacted by wildfire, managers are tasked with maintaining timber value, wildlife, recreation, and cultural resources important to society. However, managers contend with multiple constraints in forest restoration. To address these constraints, a network of scientists and managers of the Blue Mountains and Eastern Cascades will co-develop a decision support platform...
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Climatic warming has contributed to recent increases in severe wildfires across the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Following severe wildfire, a burned forest has an increased likelihood burning again within several decades, which can greatly alter vegetation recovery. These changes are of increasing concern to forest managers, conservationists, researchers, the public, and culture bearers. However, more information is needed to gauge how PNW forests respond to severe wildfire reburns under ongoing climate change. In this project, researchers and natural resource managers will jointly develop new applied science to anticipate and gauge the resilience of forests in the western Cascades of the PNW to climate change impacts....
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The Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (NW CASC) is hosted by the University of Washington on behalf of a multi-university consortium, enabling the federal government and Northwest natural and cultural resource managers to leverage the research capacity, expertise and infrastructure of public agencies and universities across Washington, Oregon, Idaho and western Montana. Each NW CASC Consortium partner (listed below) brings unique expertise in promoting regional climate resilience and is dedicated to building capacity within resource management agencies and among the next generation of researchers for addressing climate impacts. University of Washington The NW CASC is hosted by the University of Washington...
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Big sagebrush plant communities are important and widespread in western North America and are crucial for meeting long-term conservation goals for greater sage-grouse and other wildlife of conservation concern. Yet wildfire is increasing in the West, turning biodiverse, shrub-based ecosystems dominated by sagebrush into grasslands containing invasive species such as cheatgrass and less overall plant and animal diversity. These transformations negatively impact people and ecosystems by reducing habitat quality for wildlife and the aesthetic value of the landscape. Understanding how sagebrush communities are already responding and will continue to respond to changes in wildfire, invasive species, and climate is...
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The Squaxin Island Tribe (SIT) is descended from maritime people who have lived and prospered along the shores of the southernmost inlets of the Salish Sea for millennia. Climate change is projected to result in lower low water flows, higher peak water temperatures, and bigger and more frequent floods, due to both changes in peak flows and sea level rise. These changes could have significant impacts for salmon and other fish populations, while also putting key Tribal properties and enterprises at risk. Given the potential for climate change to exacerbate existing threats on salmon populations, it is necessary to quantify climate change impacts to inform effective restoration and conservation plans. The project...
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Within the Yurok Tribe’s territory in northwest California, tribal, public, and private land managers share the overlapping goal of promoting forests that are more resilient to climate-related disturbances through the implementation of forest treatments that are based on traditional tribal knowledge. Managers seek to understand how restoration strategies such as prescribed burning, tree harvesting, and fuel reduction can promote more resilient forests and increase the capacity of forests and human communities to adapt to extreme weather events, drought, fire, and pests and diseases. Very few existing studies of forest vulnerability and resilience have incorporated indigenous or tribal knowledge. In order to promote...
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Recent advancements in climate modeling, remote sensing, and ecological science have produced a variety of digital geospatial datasets representing many aspects of climate-change ecology that can be applied to conservation and natural-resource management in the face of climate change. The ever increasing body of climate-ecology spatial datasets provides opportunities for natural-resource managers to anticipate climate-driven changes to ecosystems, habitats, and the larger landscape, however, natural-resource managers face many challenges when trying to incorporate these diverse sources of information into on-the-ground decision-making. The Northwest CASC recently supported the development of A guidebook to spatial...
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As wildfire activity surges in the western U.S., managers are increasingly challenged by decisions surrounding managing post-fire environments.Changing fire regimes and warmer,drier post-fire conditions are increasing the likelihood of post-fire vegetation transitions, for example,from forest to grassland. Given the economic and ecological importance of these ecosystems, transformation is a concern for managers, policy-makers, and the public. As rapid environmental changes occur, management aimed at maintaining historical conditions will become increasingly untenable, requiring managers to make decisions that steward vegetation toward desired or novel conditions. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework provides...
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A change in wildfire regimes and the expansion of invasive grasses are degrading sagebrush ecosystems, altering wildlife habitats, and threatening property and human livelihoods. In response, land managers often treat large areas of land with fuel reduction or post-fire seeding treatments in an attempt to reduce these risks. However, the trajectories of ecosystem change following treatment are inconsistent across the sagebrush steppe. In some places, treatments are successful, leading to a decrease in invasive grasses which allows native plants to recover. In other places, treatments either have no effect or they facilitate the spread of invasive grasses. Under some climate conditions, native grasses and forbs do...
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Mature, old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest provide critical habitat for threatened and endangered species, including the northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet. Dominated by large Douglas-firs and western hemlocks, these established forests range in age from 200 to 1,000 years old. Yet wildfire activity is increasing across western North America, heightening concerns about severe fires that have the potential to kill the upper canopy layer of forests. Known as “stand-replacing fires”, these extreme events have important implications for forest ecosystems, initiating forest regrowth and altering habitat for wildlife. Identifying locations that are protected from stand-replacing fire is an urgent management...
map background search result map search result map Improving the Success of Post-Fire Adaptive Management Strategies in Sagebrush Steppe Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century Fire Refugia in Old-Growth Forests: Predicting Habitat Persistence to Support Land Management in an Era of Rapid Global Change Establishing a Refugia Research Coalition (RRC) for Collaborative Refugia-Related Research and Management in the Pacific Northwest State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Forest Fires in Western Cascadia: Evaluating Drivers and Impacts to Inform Climate-Adaptive Management Responses Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Harnessing the Hydraulic Traits of Trees to Adapt Forest Management in the Pacific Northwest "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest NW CASC Research Consortium Partners: Leveraging Regional Research Capacity & Expertise Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Where the Creek Meets the Tide: Effects of Climate Change on Salmon, Homes, and Businesses, and the Squaxin Island Tribe Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Informing Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Post-fire Vegetation Transitions Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions A Multi-Scale Decision Support Platform for Adaptive Management of Post-Fire Landscapes in the Inland Northwest Understanding Post-fire Transformations in Inland Northwest Forests and Shrublands Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades Leveraging Existing Data to Assess the Vulnerability of Native Salmonid Populations in the Greater Yellowstone Area Where the Creek Meets the Tide: Effects of Climate Change on Salmon, Homes, and Businesses, and the Squaxin Island Tribe Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Leveraging Existing Data to Assess the Vulnerability of Native Salmonid Populations in the Greater Yellowstone Area Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades Fire Refugia in Old-Growth Forests: Predicting Habitat Persistence to Support Land Management in an Era of Rapid Global Change Forest Fires in Western Cascadia: Evaluating Drivers and Impacts to Inform Climate-Adaptive Management Responses Harnessing the Hydraulic Traits of Trees to Adapt Forest Management in the Pacific Northwest Understanding Post-fire Transformations in Inland Northwest Forests and Shrublands Establishing a Refugia Research Coalition (RRC) for Collaborative Refugia-Related Research and Management in the Pacific Northwest NW CASC Research Consortium Partners: Leveraging Regional Research Capacity & Expertise Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Online Access to Spatial Datasets for Conservation Planning in the Pacific Northwest A Multi-Scale Decision Support Platform for Adaptive Management of Post-Fire Landscapes in the Inland Northwest "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia Improving the Success of Post-Fire Adaptive Management Strategies in Sagebrush Steppe Trajectories of Change: How Climate, Wildfire, and Management Drive Shrubland Ecosystem Transitions Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century Informing Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Post-fire Vegetation Transitions State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country