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Aspen forests are considered keystone ecosystems, meaning that loss of aspen habitat would result in negative impacts to numerous plant and animal species. Aspen also provide important economic and social benefits, including drawing tourists, serving as potential fire breaks, improving local economies, and providing forage for wildlife and livestock. Ecologically-valuable aspen forests are considered at risk in many areas of the western U.S., but especially in lower-elevation areas. Risks to aspen include climate-change and past land use. The effects of drought and browsing animals (that eat young aspen) are often more severe for lower-elevation aspen and can threaten aspen forest health and long-term persistence....
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These shapefiles represent the frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi for a set of water-budget scenarios that characterize unique combinations of rainfall and land-cover conditions. Four water-budget scenarios were developed to quantify the effects of drought on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for each island as follows: (1) a reference condition, the Non-Drought scenario, consisting of rainfall conditions during 1990–97 and 2003–06 and 2020 land cover, (2) rainfall conditions representative of the driest periods during 1920–2012 and 2020 land cover, (3) rainfall conditions...
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In the Northern Rockies, the annual area burned by wildfires has risen sharply in recent decades and is expected to continue growing. As a result, burned forests increasingly comprise a significant portion of the land base. However, burned areas represent a difficult paradox for land managers, especially in the context of other climate-linked disturbances (e.g., droughts, bark beetle outbreaks) that are also on the rise and may compound initial fire-induced stressors. While, burned areas have experienced major recent changes that may decrease their resilience to subsequent, compounding stressors, fire-induced changes can also lead to longer-term increases in resilience. The evolving landscape conditions triggered...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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FY2023R6 SA (Science Applications), in cooperation with project collaborators and watershed stakeholders (watershed coordinators, Montana State University, MTDRC, EPA, conservation districts, TU) created the River Conditions Tool (RCT) to drive conservation actions via real-time stream gage data with predetermined aquatic, riverine, drought management science. Many watersheds Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Colorado are in need of the various conservation science benefits this RCT expansion provides.Continuing this project in new watersheds would be an opportunity to create relationships with new partners and help underserved communities by providing landowners, land/watershed managers, scientists, and recreationalists...
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The northwestern United States (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana) are experiencing increasing air temperatures, declines in snowpack, altered hydrology, and more frequent and severe wildfire, drought, and insect and disease outbreaks as a result of climate change. These factors, alone and in combination with existing non-climate stressors, present a significant challenge to the natural and cultural resources of the region as well as to the managers tasked with their protection. While adaptation strategies and actions offer a path forward in the face of climate change, resource management decision-making is complicated by the multitude of adaptation options that have already been identified for the...
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The Rio Grande is naturally a water-scarce basin in which droughts have been classified as severe (with almost no rain during some years) and extended (lasting more than 10, or even 15 years). Severe and persistent droughts in the Rio Grande basin reduce water availability, which triggers economic, environmental, and social impacts, and affects compliance with interstate compacts and international treaty commitments. In contrast, the Rio Grande basin is also affected by flood events that cause major losses to lives, properties, and economies. Understanding each of these periods of water scarcity and water abundance can help water managers to design adaptation strategies that cope with these two extremes while still...
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The goal of this project was to: (a) archive the relevant AR5 model output data for the southwest region; (b) downscale daily temperature and precipitation to 12 X 12 km cell spatial resolution over the Southwest; (c) assess the precision (degree of agreement) of the simulated models; (d) assess the direction and magnitude of change in projections between AR4 and AR5, as well as assess projections of key extreme climatic events (i.e., extreme drought, extreme seasonal precipitation, extreme high and low temperature events); and (e) assess critical ecosystem impacts (i.e., climate water deficit and fire; hydrological condition of major river systems; impacts on highly valued species).
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Healthy forests in the western United States provide multiple benefits to society, including harvestable timber, soil stabilization, and habitat for wildlife. On the Navajo Nation, over 5 million acres of forest provide wood that heats 50% of homes, building materials, summer forage for livestock, and drinking water. However, warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns can increase forests’ vulnerability to insect outbreaks and catastrophic wildfire. Forest managers, particularly those associated with tribal communities that depend on forests to maintain a subsistence lifestyle, need knowledge-based tools in order to reduce the impacts of climate change on forests. This project aims to study approximately...
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Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This phenomenon will likely become more common as climate change causes increasingly severe droughts, and larger sections of streams become seasonally dry. This could lead to local loss of native prairie fishes, an already at-risk group. Fisheries managers in Wyoming and Montana have limited data on climate impacts to prairie...
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Changing climate in the “Ridge-to-Reef" (R2R) and “Icefield-to-Ocean" (I2O) ecosystems of Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska is expected to influence freshwater resources, extreme precipitation events, intensity of storms, and drought. Changes in these regions will not be uniform, rather they will depend on elevation and watershed location due to their steep-gradient terrains. A better understanding of expected future climate conditions in these regions is essential for natural resource managers to make informed climate adaptation decisions amid a changing environment. The Pacific Islands and Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Centers (PI and AK CASCs) are uniquely positioned to address these issues as they have previously...
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The South Central U.S. is home to diverse climates and ecosystems, strong agricultural and energy sectors, and fast-growing urban areas. All share a critical need for water, which is becoming an increasingly scarce resource across the region as aquifers are overdrawn and populations grow. Understanding what brings rain to this region, and how the timing and amount of precipitation may be affected by climate change, is essential for effective water planning and management, yet community planners and managers have indicated that currently available precipitation forecasts for the South Central are insufficient, due largely to the high levels of uncertainty associated with precipitation projections for the region....
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The role of soil temperature in agricultural health is largely understudied, but recent research suggests that it can affect soil health in important ways. Researchers at Texas Tech University found that lower daily temperature ranges of soil in the Southern High Plains were associated with higher levels of soil microbes (which help make critical nutrients available for plants) and decreased nitrogen availability. These results suggest that climate variability may have implications for soil health and microbial content. In the South Central U.S., a more developed understanding of how management practices, climate variability, and soil health interact is essential for sound agricultural decision-making. This project...
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The Colorado River is the dominant water source for the southwestern United States, crossing through seven states before reaching Mexico. The river supplies water to approximately 36 million people, irrigates nearly six million acres of farmland within and beyond the basin, and contributes an estimated 26 billion dollars each year to the region’s recreational economy. Yet the Colorado River’s water supply is already fully allocated, meaning that the economic and environmental health of the region is closely tied to the river’s streamflow. Climate projections for the Southwest show a future marked by chronic drought and substantial reductions in streamflow. The region has already been impacted by climate change,...
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This study focused on sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems in Hawai‘i to climate change. These Hawaiian ecosystems are becoming warmer and drier, and are relevant because they house many rare species, represent the last remaining stretches of uninvaded landscapes, and include wao akua – the small-statured cloud forests of great cultural significance that are the ‘realm of the gods’. Rapid climate change here presents a disproportionately high climate change impact risk. We provided models that relate current, past, and future distribution of plant species from 6000 – 7500’ feet in elevation on Haleakalā, to mean climate, extreme drought events, and soil properties. We constructed 24 models of current vegetation...
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Across the Navajo Nation, the negative effects of climate change are impacting soil and vegetation management practices to the detriment of ecosystem function, human health, cultural resiliency, and economic well-being. Conducting ecosystem restoration and shifting land management practices are critical elements of climate adaptation and dust mitigation strategies for the Navajo Nation. However, barriers to restoration exist. Restoration in drylands is incredibly difficult and nuanced, requiring the use of appropriate technologies, integration of multiple types of knowledge, appropriate high-quality locally-adapted native plant materials, and environmental professionals skilled in the techniques of dryland restoration...
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While this assessment has found that many of the inland streams were at a low or very low risk of degradation, some fish habitat disturbances, including water diversions, timber harvest practices, and intensity of livestock grazing in watersheds, could not be directly included in this assessment because national datasets of these disturbances and their component variables are unavailable. These disturbances are known to have major, negative effects on fish habitats in this region. Their absence from this assessment, along with absences of other disturbances, has likely produced an overestimation of habitat condition (quality) for some water bodies. These gaps need to be kept in mind while examining the results....
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This project was designed to use the combined strengths of the cooperators to address their concerns stemming from the degradation of arid environments in the Great Basin. The project aimed to identify the regional ecological and social costs and benefits of both immediate hydrologic modifications (low-profile constructed dams) and longer-term restoration of beavers (Castor canadensis) to these landscapes. Use of these techniques by ranchers and managers of public lands depends on these costs and benefits as well as social context and attitudes; the project aimed to assess these as well. Finally, implementation of hydrologic modifications depends on communication of benefits and costs to stakeholders who may choose...
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Healthy forests and woodlands in the western United States provide many important benefits, including providing habitat for wildlife, forage for livestock, and clean water for fish and human use. Yet climate change and other stressors, from wildfires and insect attacks to severe droughts, are causing unprecedented tree die offs across the region, threatening many of these ecosystem services. Following these mortality episodes, a key question becomes: how will these ecosystems recover? In some cases, forests eventually return to their pre-disturbance states, growing back the same species and creating the same kind of ecological communities as before. However, there are increasing observations of ecosystems that...
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R6 SA (Science Applications), in cooperation with project collaborators and watershed stakeholders (watershed coordinators, Montana State University, MTDRC, EPA, conservation districts, TU) created the River Conditions Tool (RCT) to drive conservation actions via real-time stream gage data with predetermined aquatic, riverine, drought management science.This broad scale tool downscales to individual stream segments providing the ability of watershed groups to customize predetermined conservation triggers for immediate conservation action through real-time situational awareness at fine scales for all water users and in effect becomes a catalog of conservation activities for the entire broad scale project area.
map background search result map search result map Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Quantifying Future Precipitation in the South Central U.S. for Water Resources Planning An Interagency Collaboration to Develop and Evaluate New Science-Based Strategies for Great Basin Watershed Restoration in the Future Summary of scientific findings for Pacific Coast States Identifying Best Agricultural Management Practices for Maintaining Soil Health and Sustainability Under Changing Climate Conditions Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Forest Monitoring and Tree Ring Data to Inform Forest Management on the Navajo Nation River Conditions Tool (RCT) Geographic Expansion Tracking Forest and Hydrological Resilience to Compound Stressors in Burned Forests Under a Changing Climate Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science Science to Help Move From Mortality to Recovery in Western Forests and Woodlands "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes Uniting Western Restoration Strategies and Traditional Knowledge to Build Community Capacity and Climate Resilience on the Navajo Nation River Conditions Tool (RCT) Frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi, for a set of rainfall and land-cover conditions Identifying Best Agricultural Management Practices for Maintaining Soil Health and Sustainability Under Changing Climate Conditions Uniting Western Restoration Strategies and Traditional Knowledge to Build Community Capacity and Climate Resilience on the Navajo Nation Science to Help Move From Mortality to Recovery in Western Forests and Woodlands Forest Monitoring and Tree Ring Data to Inform Forest Management on the Navajo Nation Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Frequency characteristics of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi, for a set of rainfall and land-cover conditions Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii An Interagency Collaboration to Develop and Evaluate New Science-Based Strategies for Great Basin Watershed Restoration in the Future Tracking Forest and Hydrological Resilience to Compound Stressors in Burned Forests Under a Changing Climate River Conditions Tool (RCT) Geographic Expansion The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes "Adaptation Snapshots" to Inform Managers and Help Prioritize Adaptation Actions Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas River Conditions Tool (RCT) Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region Summary of scientific findings for Pacific Coast States Quantifying Future Precipitation in the South Central U.S. for Water Resources Planning Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska