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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Southwest CASC > FY 2011 Projects ( Show direct descendants )

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Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States - a contribution to the 2013 National Climate Assessment - is a summary and synthesis of the past, present, and projected future of the region’s climate, emphasizing new information and understandings since publication of the previous national assessment in 2009.
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12257/abstract): Aim Ecological niche modelling is one of the main tools that allows for the incorporation of climate change effects into conservation planning. For example, ecological niche model predictions can be used to rank species by degree of predicted future habitat loss. While many studies have considered how different modelling decisions contribute to uncertainty in niche model outputs, here we evaluate how metrics used to rank species by conservation risk respond to the choice of global climate models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, suitable versus unsuitable threshold values, and the degree of model complexity. Location California,...
This study examines the health impacts of recent heat waves statewide and for six subregions of California: the north and south coasts, the Central Valley, the Mojave Desert, southern deserts, and northern forests. By using canonical correlation analysis applied to daily maximum temperatures and morbidity data in the form of unscheduled hospitalizations from 1999 to 2009, 19 heat waves spanning 3–15 days in duration that had a significant impact on health were identified. On average, hospital admissions were found to increase by 7% on the peak heat-wave day, with a significant impact seen for several disease categories, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dehydration, acute renal failure, heat...
Abstract: The effect of human-induced climate warming on different snow measures in the western United States is compared by calculating the time required to achieve a statistically significant linear trend in the different measures, using time series derived from regionally downscaled global climate models. The measures examined include the water content of the spring snowpack, total cold-season snowfall, fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow, length of the snow season, and fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, as well as temperature and precipitation. Various stakeholders may be interested in different sets of these variables. It is found that temperature and the...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Southwest CASC, climate, snow
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1552-6): Understanding how predicted species responses to climate change are affected by advances in climate modeling is important for determining the frequency with which vulnerability assessments need to be updated. We used ecological niche models to compare predicted climatic habitat suitability for 132 species of reptiles and amphibians in California, USA under the previous and current generations of climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). We used data from seven global climate models for future (2014–2060) predictions under the following greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: SRES A2 for CMIP3 and...
This paper is a product from the SW CSC FY 11 project, "Climate change impacts in the Southwest: An assessment of next generation climate models for making projections and derivations". Abstract: Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections...