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Soil moisture is a critical variable for understanding the impacts of drought on ecological, hydrological, and agricultural systems. Yet, key research gaps currently prevent existing soil moisture measurements from being used to assess drought conditions and mitigate drought impacts such as wildfire outbreaks, lost agricultural production, and degraded wildlife habitat. In fact, most scales used to characterize the severity of drought, known as “drought indices”, don’t include soil moisture measurements, relying instead on atmospheric data. Current barriers to the incorporation of soil moisture data include a lack of consensus regarding how to best construct soil moisture-based drought indices, the challenges associated...
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Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of drought in the U.S., leading to potentially harmful ecological impacts. The uncertain and relatively rapid changes to precipitation patterns pose a significant challenge to managers and decision-makers. In addition to having negative social and economic implications, long periods without rainfall can alter ecosystems, thereby threatening fish and wildlife species. The term “ecological drought” emphasizes the environmental consequences of future droughts. While it is known that ecological drought places multiple stresses on the environment, many of the specific impacts are not fully understood. To address this need, researchers are working to...
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The South Central U.S. is one of the main agricultural regions in North America: annual agricultural production is valued at more than $44 billion dollars. However, as climate conditions change, the region is experiencing more frequent and severe droughts, with significant impacts on agriculture and broader consequences for land management. For example, in 2011 drought caused an estimated $7.6 billion in agricultural losses in Texas and an additional $1.6 billion in Oklahoma. Although there are many drought monitoring tools available, most of these tools were developed without input from the stakeholders, such as farmers and ranchers, who are intended to use them. The goal of this project was to assess the information...
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As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of droughts in North America are expected to increase, leading to a wide range of social and ecological impacts. Identifying these impacts and the consequences for ecosystems and human communities are essential for effective drought management. Equally important is to improve the capacity of nature and people to prepare for and cope with drought by identifying management strategies that benefit both. An interdisciplinary working group within the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) was established by the U.S. Geological Survey, The Wildlife Conservation Society, and The Nature Conservancy to synthesize our current understanding of...
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The climate in Hawai‘i is changing, and alterations in rainfall amount and distribution have implications for future vegetation cover, non-native species invasions, watershed function, and fire behavior. As novel ecosystems and climates emerge in Hawai‘i, particularly hotter and drier climates, it is critical that scientists produce locally relevant, timely and actionable science products and that managers are able to access the best-available science. Managers and researchers have identified that a knowledge exchange process is needed for drought in Hawai‘i to allow for formal collaboration between the two groups to co-produce drought data and products. To address this need, this project will pilot a focused...
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Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation threaten the persistence of the Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. This subspecies appears to be more vulnerable to drought than more northern subspecies, because it occupies small and fragmented streams which are at greater risk of drying up during drought. Most notably, in 2002 drought in the Southwest resulted in the loss of 14 different Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations – about 10% of the total population. While it is known that drought is having an effect on Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the specific ways in which individuals and populations are affected by drought...
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Drought is a common result of climate variability in the south-central United States. With increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns expected in the future, drought will continue to stress water quantity and quality in this region. University of Oklahoma researchers have demonstrated that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a measure of long-term drought conditions, can help predict drought patterns at multi-county scales in south-central Oklahoma. The model forecasts future PDSI using larger-scale climate drivers, commonly referred to as “teleconnections,” such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These teleconnections...
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Severe droughts cause widespread tree mortality and decreased growth in forests across the globe—even in areas with cooler climates. Mitigating the negative effects of climate change, in particular increased drought frequency and severity, poses a major challenge to forest managers. Managers are searching for strategies that minimize the negative effects of drought on forests (i.e. increase their resistance to drought) and maximize the ability of forests to recover after a drought (i.e. improve their resilience). Evidence suggests that forests with certain combinations of tree species, sizes, and stem densities are better able to withstand and recover from drought. The goal of this study was to identify which...
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In the Northwest U.S., warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will likely result in significantly altered snowpack, stream flows, and water availability. Along with these changes comes an increased risk of “ecological drought”, or periods of water stress that impact ecosystems and the services they provide –which can ultimately impact human communities. More frequent and severe ecological droughts have the potential to push ecosystems beyond their ability to recover, resulting in complete changes in ecosystem composition and function. Ecological drought will only worsen existing management challenges, such as competition for water resources, habitat degradation, invasive species, and more frequent...
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Warmer temperatures and less precipitation in the western U.S. related to climate change are harming many important natural resources, including forests, rivers, and many fish and wildlife species. Climate refugia provide a potential opportunity for conserving resources and biodiversity in the face of climate change. These refugia are places where the climate will likely change less than the surrounding landscape and/or places in a landscape where species may move to find more suitable climates. For example, because climate change may alter the frequency, duration, or severity of droughts, small habitats that naturally retain water (drought refugia) may become increasingly important to many natural wildlife communities....
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Drought poses a major threat to New Mexico’s state fish, the Rio Grande cutthroat trout. This southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in New Mexico and Colorado, has already been restricted to an estimated 12% of its former range. Now climate change, in the form of lower winter snowpack and reduced precipitation, challenges its long-term persistence. This trout tends to occupy small and fragmented streams, which are at higher risk of drying up during drought events. Yet, the full extent of drought impacts to Rio Grande cutthroat trout is unknown. To address this knowledge gap, researchers examined the effects of drought - in particular stream intermittency - on the growth and survival of Rio Grande...
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California’s Central Valley is a nexus for water resources in the state, draining the Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds. Urban centers, agricultural operations, and the environment all compete for limited water, and demand is expected to only increase as the population grows and agriculture intensifies. At the same time, the water supply is projected to decrease as temperatures rise, precipitation patterns change, and the frequency of extreme droughts increases. The Central Valley also provides critical wetland habitats to migratory waterbirds, and wetland managers require information on how to best use water resources to support wildlife objectives, particularly during drought. This project seeks to...
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The Missouri River system is the life-blood of the American Midwest, providing critical water resources that drive the region’s agriculture, industry, hydroelectric power generation, and ecosystems. The basin has a long history of development and diversion of water resources, meaning that streamflow records that reflect natural, unmanaged flows over the past century have been rare. As a result, research on the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation in driving droughts and surface water variability in the Missouri River Basin has lagged behind similar work done in other major basins in the country, and has hindered drought planning efforts. To address this need, researchers will use tree-rings...
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In 2017, California was experiencing its most severe drought in over a millennia. Low rainfall and record high temperatures resulted in increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks across the West. Though land managers scrambled to respond, they lacked information needed to make informed decisions. Focusing on California’s central and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, this project seeks to determine whether a key forest management practice – forest thinning via prescribed fire – can help forests better survive drought. Prescribed fire is commonly used in the western U.S. to remove potential wildfire fuel, such as small trees and shrubs. It is also thought that this act of selectively removing trees helps...
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Forested areas in the Western U.S. that are impacted by disturbances such as fire and drought have increased in recent decades. This trend is likely to continue, with the increase in frequency and extent of wildfire activity being especially concerning. Resource managers need reliable scientific information to better understand wildfire occurrence, which can vary substantially across landscapes and throughout time. However, few scientific models capture this variability, and projections of future potential changes in fire occurrence can include some uncertainty. This uncertainty can limit our ability to anticipate potential wildfire impacts on society and ecological systems. Another method to help managers prepare...
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The White House Council for Environmental Quality has identified two national watersheds to pilot large-scale drought resiliency implementation. The Missouri Headwaters Basin within the GNLCC region and High Divide landscape is one of these national demonstration areas, and the GNLCC can advance its collective mission with this opportunity. By delivering science to management and building a learning network among watershed groups, this project will align the large-scale watershed management efforts of the GNLCC with the National Drought Resiliency Program (NDRP) and the Montana Department of Natural Resources (DNRC) to build drought resilience into this important northern Rocky Mountain landscape.FY2015and FY2016The...
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The need to improve fire weather predictions for the southern Great Plains has grown in recent years, following a number of extreme fire events. While on-the-ground conditions that promote fire development in the region are still not well understood, research suggests that fire-friendly conditions are determined by more than just precipitation amounts or wind speeds. They are also influenced by soil characteristics such as moisture content, temperature, and human use. Therefore, fire weather forecast predictions could be improved by developing a better understanding of the relationship between soil characteristics and fire occurrence. With a hotter and drier future unfolding in the southern Great Plains, the time...
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During the severe drought of 2010-2015, several communities in southeast Oklahoma almost ran out of water. Some of these communities rely on streams and rivers as their sole source of water and when these sources almost ran dry, it left them searching for alternatives and wondering how to continue growing, economically, with this water uncertainty. The possibility of climate change has these communities further concerned, primarily because they do not know what to expect. Previously, the USGS, both Chickasaw and Choctaw Nations collaborated on a project to apply a range of possible climate change scenarios to the Red River watershed to determine future water availability. This study will focus specifically on southeast...
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Streams are classified as perennial (flowing uninterrupted, year-round) or intermittent (flowing part of the year) or ephemeral (flowing only during rainfall events). The classifications of “streamflow permanence” were primarily established in the middle 20th century and are often outdated and inaccurate today if they were not adjusted for changes in land use, wildfires, or climate.Understanding where streams are perennial is important for a variety of reasons. For example, perennial streams receive special regulatory protections under a variety of statutes, and provide important habitat for fish, wildlife, and other species. To predict the likelihood that streams are perennial, we compiled nearly 25,000 observations...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, CASC, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
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Migratory birds may be hit especially hard by climate change – particularly waterbirds that depend on wetlands as resting and feeding sites during their journey between breeding and non-breeding grounds. California’s Central Valley and the interior basins of southeastern Oregon and northeastern California provide some of the most critical wetlands resources to migratory waterbirds in the western U.S. However, these wetlands rely heavily on snow pack and precipitation for water supply, both of which have already decreased due to climate change. Of further concern is the fact that drought conditions resulting from climate change could exacerbate existing water allocation issues in the region. Researchers are examining...
map background search result map search result map The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Intermittency Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Assessing the Impacts of Drought on Migratory Waterbirds in Key Conservation Regions of the Western U.S. Soil Moisture-Based Drought Monitoring for the South Central Region The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Building Large Scale Drought Resiliency in the Missouri Headwaters Basin The Impact of Drought on Waterbirds and Their Wetland Habitats in California’s Central Valley Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains? Understanding the Ecological Impacts of Drought Across the U.S.: Regional Workshops and National Synthesis Ecological Drought: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Solutions for People and Nature Identifying Resilient Headwater Streams to Mitigate Impacts of Future Drought in the Northwest Identifying and Evaluating Refugia from Drought and Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Evaluation of Sustainable Water Availability in Drought Prone Watersheds in Southeastern Oklahoma Extremes to Ex-Streams: Informing Ecological Drought Adaptation in the Northwest Characterizing Historic Streamflow to Support Drought Planning in the Upper Missouri River Basin Working with Natural Resource Managers to Co-Produce Drought Analyses in Hawai‘i Drought and Disturbances as Drivers of Long-Term Ecological Transformation and Risk Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Intermittency Building Large Scale Drought Resiliency in the Missouri Headwaters Basin The Impact of Drought on Waterbirds and Their Wetland Habitats in California’s Central Valley Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains? Assessing the Impacts of Drought on Migratory Waterbirds in Key Conservation Regions of the Western U.S. Evaluation of Sustainable Water Availability in Drought Prone Watersheds in Southeastern Oklahoma Identifying Resilient Headwater Streams to Mitigate Impacts of Future Drought in the Northwest Identifying and Evaluating Refugia from Drought and Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Extremes to Ex-Streams: Informing Ecological Drought Adaptation in the Northwest Examining Soil and Drought Dynamics to Improve Fire Forecasting in the Southern Great Plains Soil Moisture-Based Drought Monitoring for the South Central Region Working with Natural Resource Managers to Co-Produce Drought Analyses in Hawai‘i Developing and Testing a Drought Early Warning Product in the South-Central United States Drought and Disturbances as Drivers of Long-Term Ecological Transformation and Risk Developing Effective Drought Monitoring Tools for Farmers and Ranchers in the South Central U.S. Characterizing Historic Streamflow to Support Drought Planning in the Upper Missouri River Basin Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Ecological Drought: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Solutions for People and Nature Understanding the Ecological Impacts of Drought Across the U.S.: Regional Workshops and National Synthesis