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Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates...
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Prescribed burning – planned, controlled fires conducted under weather and fuel conditions designed for safety and effectiveness – is a common practice used to maintain and restore native prairies in the Northern Great Plains. However, climate change will affect the number of days in a year, and when, suitable conditions for prescribed fires occur. For instance, warmer temperatures may shift these “good prescribed-fire days” earlier in the spring and later in the fall, but uncertainty about future climate makes it hard to predict how large shifts will be and if the number of good fire days each year will generally increase or decrease. Further, it’s hard to know whether prescribed fires will continue to achieve...
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Plant species cover and richness data were collected in experimental plots at three sites: one at Badlands National Park (BADL), South Dakota, one at Scotts Bluff National Monument (SCBL), Nebraska, and one at Wind Cave National Park (WICA), South Dakota. At the Badlands and Scotts Bluff sites, data were collected in the summers of 2015 and 2017-2020 in 50 x 50-m plots with one of five treatments: unburned for the entire time of data collection, burned only in fall 2016, burned only in fall 2018, burned in both fall 2016 and fall 2018, or burned then treated with the herbicide imazapic in fall 2016. At the Wind Cave site, data were collected in the summers of 2017-2020 in 10 x 10-m plots in which the herbicide indaziflam...
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Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States. In response to a need to understand how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center led a synthesis of peer-reviewed climate and ecology literature relevant to grassland management in the North Central Region (including Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). This synthesis was done to begin to address grassland managers’ information needs and identify research gaps. This open-file report summarizes the impacts of climate change and variability...


    map background search result map search result map Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Vegetation Composition and Management Action Data (2015-2020) from Experimental Plots at Badlands National Park, Wind Cave National Park, and Scotts Bluff National Monument Used to Develop the ABAM Model Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Synthesis of Climate and Ecological Science to Support Grassland Management Priorities in the North Central Region Vegetation Composition and Management Action Data (2015-2020) from Experimental Plots at Badlands National Park, Wind Cave National Park, and Scotts Bluff National Monument Used to Develop the ABAM Model Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Synthesis of Climate and Ecological Science to Support Grassland Management Priorities in the North Central Region