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There are a variety of metrics that are used to monitor drought conditions, including soil moisture and drought indices. This study examines the relationship between in situ soil moisture, NLDAS-2 soil moisture, and four drought indices: the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, the crop moisture index, and the Palmer Z index. We evaluate how well drought indices and the modeled soil moisture represent the intensity, variability, and persistence of the observed soil moisture in the southern Great Plains. We also apply the drought indices to evaluate land–atmosphere interactions and compare the results with soil moisture. The results show that the SPI, SPEI, and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that forecast droughts up to 18 months in advance with information about their expected timing and intensity. Developed for all climate divisions in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, these drought models rely on input from predictor variables associated with global weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña. However, it is unclear...
Drought indices are widely used for drought quantification. The objective of this study is to introduce a hybrid drought index, the Precipitation Evapotranspiration Difference Condition Index (PEDCI), and to compare its performance in Oklahoma to existing drought indices. The PEDCI is based on a simple water balance model, which accounts for the difference between water supply (precipitation) and water demand (potential evapotranspiration). While it is similar in this respect to the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index, it uses a different method to normalize the index in time and space which was inspired by Vegetation Condition Index. The performance...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from AGUPubs): To assist water managers in south-central Oklahoma prepare for future drought, reliable place-based drought forecasts are produced. Past-, present-, and future-forecasted climate indices (Multivariate ENSO Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index) and past and present Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are employed as predictor variables to forecast PDSI using a multivariate regression technique. PDSI is forecasted 18 months in advance with sufficient skill to provide water managers early warning of drought. Using a training data set obtained from the period January 1901 to November 2021, a second-order model equation that contains, without...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Science Direct): Agricultural drought is characterized by low soil moisture levels that negatively affect agricultural production, but in situ soil moisture measurements are largely absent from indices commonly used to describe agricultural drought. Instead, many indices incorporate weather-derived soil moisture estimates, which is necessary, in part, because the relationships between in situ soil moisture and agricultural-drought impacts are not well quantified. Our objective was to use in situ soil moisture data from monitoring networks in Oklahoma and West Texas to identify a soil moisture-based agricultural drought index that is (i) strongly related to crop-yield anomaly across networks, (ii)...
Volodymyr V. Mihunov, Nina S.N. Lam, Robert V. Rohli, Lei Zou, 2019, Emerging disparities in community resilience to drought hazard in south-central United States, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.
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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
Abstract (from Natural Hazards): Drought indices are useful for quantifying drought severity and have shown mixed success as an indicator of drought damage and biophysical dryness. While spatial downscaling of drought indicators from the climate divisional level to the county level has been conducted successfully in previous work, little research to date has attempted to “upscale” remotely sensed biophysical indicators to match the downscaled drought indices. This upscaling is important because drought damage and indices are often reported at a coarser scale than the biophysical indicators provide. This research upscales National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor-acquired...
During the severe drought of 2010-2015, several communities in southeast Oklahoma nearly ran out of water. Some of these communities rely on streams and rivers as their sole source of water, and when these sources almost ran dry, it left them searching for alternatives and wondering how to manage future water uncertainty. To address these challenges this study used historical and climate projections through the end of the century to model potential impacts to individual water permits, and to estimate projected supply-demand curves for the most water vulnerable communities. This study focused on local communities within the Red River Basin in both the Chickasaw Nation and Choctaw Nation territories. Additionally,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The Red River Basin is a vital source of water in the South Central U.S., supporting ecosystems, drinking water, agriculture, tourism and recreation, and cultural ceremonies. Stretching from the High Plains of New Mexico eastward to the Mississippi River, the Red River Basin encompasses parts of five states – New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. In the Red River Basin, resource managers face the challenge of allocating scarce water resources among competing uses, but they lack a systematic framework for comparing the costs and benefits of proposed water management decisions and conservation actions. In 2016, researchers worked with the Great Plains LCC to develop a decision support model for identifying...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The Rio Grande/Bravo (RGB) is a basin full of extreme climate conditions. The overall goal of this study was the estimation of climate variability on the southern branch of the RGB basin (from Presidio Texas to the outlet of the river in the Gulf of Mexico) and the characterization of the periods of drought and water abundance for 110 years [1900 – 2010]. This study focused on the natural streamflow variability as a proxy for climate variability, and for extreme drought and flood events. Specifically, on the estimation of daily natural water availability for the RGB along the border, comparing the long-term water availability with drought periods. This research aimed to help in the understanding of extreme climatic...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The Rio Grande is naturally a water-scarce basin in which droughts have been classified as severe (with almost no rain during some years) and extended (lasting more than 10, or even 15 years). Severe and persistent droughts in the Rio Grande basin reduce water availability, which triggers economic, environmental, and social impacts, and affects compliance with interstate compacts and international treaty commitments. In contrast, the Rio Grande basin is also affected by flood events that cause major losses to lives, properties, and economies. Understanding each of these periods of water scarcity and water abundance can help water managers to design adaptation strategies that cope with these two extremes while still...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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The Gulf of Mexico coast of Louisiana and Texas faces threats from increasingly destructive extreme weather, heat, subsidence, and coastal erosion. Inland areas also face stronger storms, floods, and shifts in land development patterns. Increasing drought and extreme heat in Texas and New Mexico also exacerbate fires and floods. All of these regions are culturally rich, rapidly changing areas where people are working across political boundaries and organizations to protect and adapt people’s lifeways, sites and artifacts, and culturally important species, places and landscapes. This project will produce an action plan that describes ongoing efforts and identifies gaps in research and funding for cultural preservation...
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The Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas provides water resources to more than 2 million people and is home to eight federally listed threatened and endangered species that are dependent on spring flow from the aquifer for survival. Recent results from global climate models indicate that over the next several decades increases in annual average temperatures and evapotranspiration are likely in this semi-arid region. Decision makers and water resource planners need to have a robust scientific understanding of the impacts of future climate conditions on the Edwards Aquifer system to assess future management strategies needed to maintain water availability and ensure adequate spring flow for protected species....
Chelenzo Farms, located twenty miles south of the city of Santa Fe, New Mexico, is a regenerative farm that applies permaculture, soil health, and agroecology principles. It has three operating principles of research, education, and community. It practices dryland farming, focusing on the cultivation of agave and native plants. With over 200 varieties, agave can be distilled to make liquor, fermented for livestock feed, and made into textiles. In fact, 75% of those varieties have been cultivated in Mexico for thousands of years. Thus, agaves have long supported a variety of pollinators in the Southwest and along the border with Mexico in the Chihuahuan and Sonoran deserts, with the best known one being the...
Researchers developed a custom model that integrates gSSURGO soil property data with condensed climate data from PRISM (e.g., drought index) to predict fraction of available water for a given soil. The model was trained with in situ measured soil moisture data (point measurements) and expanded to spatial extent with gSSURGO maps and PRISM data. The code for the model was developed using a combination of statistical and GIS languages (R, Matlab, ArcGIS, etc.).
Trustworthy projections of hydrological droughts are pivotal for identifying the key hydroclimatic factors that affect future groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations in drought-prone karstic aquifers that provide water for human consumption and sustainable ecosystems. Herein, we introduce an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework integrated with scenario-based downscaled climate projections from global circulation models. We use the integrated framework to investigate nonlinear hydroclimatic dependencies and interactions behind future hydrological droughts in the Edwards Aquifer Region, an ecologically fragile groundwater-dependent semi-arid region in southern United States. We project GWLs under different...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from CSIRO Publishing): Soil moisture conditions are represented in fire danger rating systems mainly through simple drought indices based on meteorological variables, even though better sources of soil moisture information are increasingly available. This review summarises a growing body of evidence indicating that greater use of in situ, remotely sensed, and modelled soil moisture information in fire danger rating systems could lead to better estimates of dynamic live and dead herbaceous fuel loads, more accurate live and dead fuel moisture predictions, earlier warning of wildfire danger, and better forecasts of wildfire occurrence and size. Potential uses of soil moisture information in existing wildfire...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The greater Mississippi River Basin drains 3.2 million square kilometers of land and spans 31 U.S. states. Ninety percent of all U.S. agricultural exports are grown in the Mississippi River Basin, and about 40 percent of the nation's total exports are transported through its major rivers. About 1.3 million people, accounting for $405 billion in annual revenues, work in river-related jobs across the basin. Ecologically, the Mississippi River Basin supports about 100 amphibious, reptile, and mammal species and provides habitat for almost 250 fish and 50 mussel species. Its floodplain supports about 40 percent of North America’s wading birds and waterfowl and over 180 National Wildlife Refuges. Yet, even with engineered...
map background search result map search result map Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Assessing Future Climate Impacts on Threatened and Endangered Groundwater Dependent Species in the Edwards Aquifer Region Using a Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Framework Using Precipitation Climatology to Examine the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Events of the Mississippi River Basin An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Assessing Future Climate Impacts on Threatened and Endangered Groundwater Dependent Species in the Edwards Aquifer Region Using a Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Framework Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Using Precipitation Climatology to Examine the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Events of the Mississippi River Basin State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country