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ROOT _ScienceBase Catalog __National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers ___Northeast CASC ____FY 2013 Projects
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Concern over global environmental change and associated uncertainty has given rise to greater emphasis on fostering resilience through forest management. We examined the impact of standard silvicultural systems (including clearcutting, shelterwood, and selection) compared with unharvested controls on tree functional identity and functional diversity in three forest types distributed across the northeastern United States. Sites included the Argonne, Bartlett, and Penobscot Experimental Forests located in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Maine, respectively. We quantified functional trait means for leaf mass per area, specific gravity, maximum height, height achieved at 20 years, seed mass, drought tolerance, shade tolerance,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Disturbance,
Forest management,
Forests,
Functional diversity,
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10980-015-0294-1): Context Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape-scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape modeling approach that incorporated three levels of spatial hierarchy (pixel, landtype, and ecological subsection) to model regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change. Objective To determine (1) how importance value of individual species will...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Modeling,
Northeast CASC
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S143383191400105X): Floodplain forests are extremely productive for agriculture and historical floodplain forests have been converted to prime agricultural land throughout the world, resulting in disruption of ecosystem functioning. Given that flooding may increase with climate change and reforestation will increase resiliency to climate change, we tested whether reforested floodplains also have great potential to store carbon and the effects of even modest increases in forested acreage on carbon storage. To calculate potential aboveground biomass in the Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV) of the United States, we determined current and historical...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Agriculture,
Climate change,
Ecosystem services,
Flooding,
Forests,
There is growing evidence that headwater stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changing climate and land use, but their conservation is challenged by the need to address the threats at a landscape scale, often through coordination with multiple management agencies and landowners. This project seeks to fill a gap, providing an example of cooperative landscape decision-making to address the conservation of headwater stream ecosystems in the face of climate change.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Landscapes,
Northeast CASC,
Other Landscapes,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-017-0540-9): Context Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent. Objectives We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities. Methods We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs. Results Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained...
Abstract (from Ecosphere): Spruce–fir (Picea–Abies) forests of the North American Acadian Forest Region are at risk of disappearing from the northeastern United States and Canada due to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to predict changes in this critical transitional ecosystem in the past, but none have addressed how seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation interact to influence tree species abundance. Inferences have also been limited by contemporary inventory data that could not fully characterize species ranges because they either, (1) only sampled species occurrence after large-scale human disturbance and settlement, or (2) did not span critical geopolitical boundaries...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00442-014-2881-2): Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Northeast CASC,
Wildlife and Plants,
Forests in the Eastern United States are in the early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Succession, harvest, and climate are potentially important factors affecting forest composition and structure in the region. The goal of this project was to predict the distribution and abundance of dominant tree species across portions of the Eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios from present to the end of the century. We used the forest landscape change LANDIS PRO and hybrid empirical-physiological ecosystem model LINKAGES to model changes in forest biomass and species abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession,...
There is growing evidence that headwater stream ecosystems are vulnerable to changing climate and land use, but their conservation is challenged by the need to address the threats at a landscape scale, often through coordination with multiple management agencies and landowners. A decision faced by managers of headwater systems is how to best manage stream habitats to maximize their suitability for multiple species of conservation concern, including stream salamanders and brook trout, which occur in different parts of a stream network, are affected by both the terrestrial landscape and each other, and are likely influenced by future climate change. Because streams and terrestrial habitats are linked, decisions relating...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Headwater Streams,
Landscapes,
Multiple Decision Makers,
Northeast CASC,
Headwater stream ecosystems are vulnerable to numerous threats associated with climate and land use change. In the northeastern US, many headwater stream species (e.g., brook trout and stream salamanders) are of special conservation concern and may be vulnerable to climate change influences, such as changes in stream temperature and streamflow. Federal land management agencies (e.g., US Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, USDA Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and Department of Defense) are required to adopt policies that respond to climate change and may have longer-term institutional support to enforce such policies compared to state, local, non-governmental, or private land managers. However,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Landscapes,
Northeast CASC,
Other Landscapes,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Eastern spruce-fir forest ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to climate change within the conterminous US. The goal of this project was to develop tools to identify refugia sites most likely to support spruce-fir forest and its associated high-priority obligate spruce-fir bird species over the long-term under projected climate change scenarios. Specific research objectives included: (1) producing high-resolution (temporal and spatial) projections of spruce-fir forests, including stand characteristics like structure and composition; (2) estimating future changes in the distribution, productivity, and stand characteristics of the spruce-fir forest type due to potential changes in climate; (3) comparing the distribution...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10980-015-0217-1): Context Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to make better decisions. Objective Our objective was to test the hypothesis that agreement between process and species distribution models varies by hierarchical level. Due to the top-down approach of species distribution models and the bottom-up approach of process...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Northeast CASC,
climate models,
This dataset represents results from this study attributed to the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 12 watershed boundaries. Human impacts occurring throughout the Northeast and Midwest United States, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on the region’s streams which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results...
Categories: Data;
Types: Citation,
Downloadable,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
Shapefile;
Tags: Aquatic habitats,
Connecticut,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Delaware,
Fish,
Human impacts occurring throughout the Northeast and Midwest United States, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on the region’s streams which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Fish,
Northeast CASC,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Science Tools For Managers,
Forests in the Eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the Eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees C. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Forests,
Landscapes,
New England,
Northeast CASC
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815215300621): Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models at plot and regional scale in longer timeframe (i.e. decades). We compared model predictions of aboveground carbon by one representative model of each model type (PnET-II, ED2 and LINKAGES v2.2, respectively) with field data (19–77 years) at both scales in the Central...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Carbon,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Model comparison,
Northeast CASC,
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1146609X15300059): Woody species are increasing in density, causing transition to more densely wooded vegetation states, and encroaching across ecotonal borders into non-forested ecosystems. We examined USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to identify tree species that have expanded longitudinally in range, particularly into the central United States. We analyzed compositional differences within ecological regions (i.e., subsections) in eastern and western ranges of species using repeated measures ANOVA. We considered differences in outer ranges to indicate range expansion or contraction. We also estimated the shift in forest area...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Assisted migration,
Densification,
Encroachment,
Expansion,
Forests,
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13046/abstract): Ecotones are transition zones that form, in forests, where distinct forest types meet across a climatic gradient. In mountains, ecotones are compressed and act as potential harbingers of species shifts that accompany climate change. As the climate warms in New England, USA, high-elevation boreal forests are expected to recede upslope, with northern hardwood species moving up behind. Yet recent empirical studies present conflicting findings on this dynamic, reporting both rapid upward ecotonal shifts and concurrent increases in boreal species within the region. These discrepancies may result from the limited spatial extent of observations....
Climate change and associated stressors are expected to greatly impact the ability of forest managers to sustainably manage and conserve forest habitats across the northeastern United States. As a result, adaptation strategies are being developed and applied in many regions to minimize climate change impacts and sustain key forest functions under uncertain future environmental conditions. Given that many of these strategies deviate from traditional approaches to forest management, there is a great need for field evaluations of adaptation in practice to inform long-term planning efforts to address climate change impacts. Similarly, the long timeframes over which forests develop and management actions operate has...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Northeast CASC,
Wildlife and Plants
Abstract (from Ecological Indicators): Climate change is expected to alter stream fish habitat potentially leading to changes in the composition and distribution of fish communities. In the Northeastern and Midwestern United States we identified the distribution and characteristics of those fish communities most and least at risk of experiencing changes in climate which deviate from the climate they are associated with. We classified stream fish communities based on a suite of climate and environmental variables with multivariate regression trees under both recent and future conditions based on eight climate models. Our findings showed that some areas, such as the majority of the Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa),...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
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