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Knowledge of snow cover distribution and disappearance dates over a wide range of scales is imperative for understanding hydrological dynamics and for habitat management of wildlife species that rely on snow cover. Identification of snow refugia, or places with relatively late snow disappearance dates (SDDs) compared to surrounding areas, is especially important as climate change alters snow cover timing and duration. The purpose of this study was to increase understanding of snow refugia in complex terrain spanning the rain-snow transition zone at fine spatial and temporal scales. To accomplish this objective, we used remote cameras to provide relatively high temporal and spatial resolution measurements on snowpack...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
This management brief summarizes the results of a project evaluating the scientific body of research on climate adaptation actions relevant to ecological drought. This adaptation science assessment evaluated strategies developed and prioritized by participants at regional adaptation workshops by synthesizing supporting evidence from the literature. The brief presents findings on the benefits and limitations of these climate adaptation options from the accompanying report, Extremes to Ex-Streams: Ecological Drought Adaptation in a Changing Climate.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Northwest CASC,
Science Tools For Managers,
State of the Science
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004–2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Abstract (from SpringerOpen): Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Fire,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Northwest CASC,
Remote camera data on snow presence, snow depth, and wildlife detections on Moscow Mountain in Latah County, ID, USA. Reconyx Hyperfire I and Hyperfire II cameras were used and set to take hourly timelapse images and motion-triggered images. The cameras were deployed from October 2020 - May 2021. Snow presence was assessed up to 15 m from the camera. Snow depth was measured using virtual snow stakes created with the edger R package created by the author. Wildlife were marked as present in all photos in which they appear, and new individuals were counted. Snow density was collected using a federal or prairie snow sampler. Snow hardness was collected using a ram penetrometer. Solar radiation was calculated using hemispherical...
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Idaho,
Latah,
Moscow Mountain,
Odocoileus hemionus,
Odocoileus virginianus,
Anthropogenic impacts have altered and degraded global ecosystems. Integrated resource management offers an important solution to enhance collaboration, holistic thinking, and equity by considering diverse perspectives in decision making. In Washington State, Floodplains by Design (FbD) is a floodplain management and habitat restoration program that emphasizes bringing together diverse stakeholders and supporting conversations between local, state, and Tribal governments while enhancing environmental justice in the region. Marginalized communities continue to be disproportionately impacted by environmental disturbances. Our project interviewed Tribal natural resource managers to assess the degree to which they felt...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from PLoS ONE): To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projections. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest. We compare model results for vegetation cover and carbon dynamics over the period 1895–2100 assuming: 1) unlimited wildfire ignitions versus stochastic ignitions, 2) no fire, and 3) a moderate CO2 fertilization effect versus no CO2fertilization effect. Carbon stocks decline in all scenarios,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Northwest CASC,
Science Tools for Managers
Recognizing the continued human domination of landscapes across the globe, social-ecological systems (SES) research has proliferated, necessitating interdisciplinary collaborations. Although interdisciplinary research started gaining traction in academic settings close to 50 years ago, formal frameworks for SES research did not develop until the late 1990s. The first National Science Foundation (NSF) funding mechanism specifically for interdisciplinary SES research began in 2001 and the SES-specific Coupled Natural Human (CNH) Systems program began in 2007. We used data on funded NSF projects from 2000 to 2015 to examine how SES research was funded, where the research is published, and the scholarly impact of SES...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Recent studies highlight the potential of climate change refugia (CCR) to support the persistence of biodiversity in regions that may otherwise become unsuitable with climate change. However, a key challenge in using CCR for climate resilient management lies in how CCR may intersect with existing forest management strategies, and subsequently influence how landscapes buffer species from negative impacts of warming climate. We address this challenge in temperate coastal forests of the Pacific Northwestern United States, where declines in the extent of late-successional forests have prompted efforts to restore old-growth forest structure. One common approach for doing so involves selectively thinning forest stands...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Remote cameras are used to study demographics, ecological processes, and behavior of wildlife populations. Cameras have also been used to measure snow depth with physical snow stakes. However, concerns that physical instruments at camera sites may influence animal behavior limit installation of instruments to facilitate collecting such data. Given that snow depth data are inherently contained within images, potential insights that could be made using these data are lost. To facilitate camera‐based snow depth observations without additional equipment installation, we developed a method implemented in an R package called edger to superimpose virtual measurement devices onto images. The virtual snow stakes can be used...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: edger,
forest-snow,
remote cameras,
snow depth,
snowtography
Accelerating disturbance activity under a warming climate increases the potential for multiple disturbances to overlap and produce compound effects that erode ecosystem resilience — the capacity to experience disturbance without transitioning to an alternative state. A key concern is the potential for amplifying or attenuating feedbacks via interactions among successive, linked disturbance events. Following severe wildfires, fuel limitation is a negative feedback that may reduce the likelihood of subsequent fire. However, the duration of, and pre-fire vegetation effects on fuel limitation remain uncertain. To address this knowledge gap, we characterized fuel profiles over a 35-year post-fire chronosequence in California...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Fire Hazard,
Fuel Dynamics,
Pinus attenuata,
Pinus muricata,
Serotinous forests,
A central tenet of landscape ecology is that mobile species depend on complementary habitats, which are insufficient in isolation, but combine to support animals through the full annual cycle. However, incorporating the dynamic needs of mobile species into conservation strategies remains a challenge, particularly in the context of climate adaptation planning. For cold-water fishes, it is widely assumed that maximum temperatures are limiting and that summer data alone can predict refugia and population persistence. We tested these assumptions in populations of redband rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss newberrii) in an arid basin, where the dominance of hot, hyperproductive water in summer emulates threats of climate...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
The Pacific Northwest is a hotspot for temperate amphibian biodiversity and is home to many species of salamanders and frogs found nowhere else on earth. Changing climatic conditions threaten habitat for many of these species, primarily through increased air and water temperature and the drying of habitats. Among the most commonly used tools for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability are species distribution models (SDMs). This approach develops models that describe suitable habitat for a focal species (or set of species) based on relationships between environmental variables and contemporary species occurrences. These models can then be used to predict changes in the availability...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
To understand the impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity on conifer forests, we studied how wildfire and post-fire seasonal climate conditions influence western larch (Larix occidentalis) regeneration across its range in the northwestern US. We destructively sampled 1651 seedlings from 57 sites across 32 fires that burned at moderate or high severity between 2000 and 2015; sites were within 100 m of reproductively mature western larch. Using dendrochronological methods, we estimated germination years of seedlings to calculate annual recruitment rates. We used boosted regression trees to model the annual probability of recruitment as a function of (i) ‘wildfire-related factors’ including distance to seed...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
As the Earth’s climate changed in the ancient past, many species moved across the landscape to track adequate environmental conditions. Some species took shelter in remaining pockets of suitable climates, referred to as refugia. For example, refugia harbored species when vast glaciers covered much of the land, allowing them to survive and migrate again across the landscape as temperatures warmed and ice melted. Modern changes in climate are similarly compelling species to move, and some of those species may seek shelter from increasingly hostile conditions in refugia. Modern climate refugia will likely take many different forms. For example, larger-scale macrorefugia may be areas of relative climate stability that...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Landscapes,
Northwest CASC,
Other Landscapes,
Climate change may facilitate the expansion of non-native invasive species (NIS) in aquatic and terrestrial systems. However, empirical evidence remains scarce and poorly synthesized at scales necessary for effective management. We conducted a literature synthesis to assess the state of research on the observed and predicted effects of climate change on a suite of 398 aquatic and terrestrial NIS now present in or a major threat to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA and British Columbia. Surprisingly, very few studies (n = 15) have investigated the observed effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance, spread, or impact of the focal NIS, with only five studies focusing...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Fish,
Northwest CASC,
Other Wildlife,
Plants,
Science Tools For Managers,
Attributes of remote camera stations on Moscow Mountain in Latah County, ID including georeferencing information and camera deployment information. Remote cameras were used to collect data on snow presence, snow depth, and wildlife detections on Moscow Mountain in Latah County, ID, USA. Reconyx Hyperfire I and Hyperfire II cameras were used and set to take hourly timelapse images and motion-triggered images. The cameras were deployed from October 2020 - May 2021.
Categories: Data,
Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Idaho,
Latah,
Moscow Mountain,
location,
snow and ice cover
This fact sheet was prepared by Jessica Halofsky, David Peterson and Brian Harvey, University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences. Editorial assistance from Patti Loesche and Darcy Widmayer. Funding for this work provided by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center. This fact sheets goes with the following synthesis paper: https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-019-0062-8.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Fire,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Northwest CASC,
The resilience of serotinous obligate-seeding plants to fire may be compromised if increasing fire frequency curtails time available for canopy seed bank accumulation (i.e., immaturity risk), but how various drivers affect seed availability at the time of fire is poorly understood. Using field data from California closed-cone pine (Pinus attenuata and P. muricata) stands, we assess two critical demographic processes during the inter-fire period—reproductive capacity and mortality. At tree- and stand-levels, we test how these processes are affected by stand age and are mediated by biotic and abiotic factors. We found that stand age was the key driver of reproductive capacity; older stands had a greater proportion...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
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