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The global mean surface temperature increased 0.85°C during the period 1880 – 2012. Some climate models predict an additional warming of up 2 to 4 ◦ C over the next 100 years for the primary breeding grounds for North American ducks. Such an increase has been predicted to reduce mid - continent breeding duck populations by >70%. Managing continental duck populations in the face of climate change requires understanding how waterfowl have responded to historical spatio - temporal climatic variation. However, such responses to climate may be obscured by how ducks respond to variation in land cover. We estimated effects of climate on settlement patterns of breeding ducks in the Prairie - Parkland Region (PPR), boreal...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation,
Report;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Birds,
Wildlife and Plants,
adaptive management,
agriculture,
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000479/full): Glacier hypsometry provides a first-order approach for assessing a glacier's response to climate forcings. We couple the Randolph Glacier Inventory to a suite of in situ observations and climate model output to examine potential change for the ∼27,000 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada through the end of the 21st century. By 2100, based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5–8.5 forcings, summer temperatures are predicted to increase between +2.1 and +4.6°C, while solid precipitation (snow) is predicted to decrease by −6 to −11%, despite a +9 to +21% increase in total precipitation. Snow is predicted to undergo a pronounced...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Forests,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Landscapes,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Berry Risk Mapping and Modeling of Native and exotic defoliators in Alaska is a jointly funded project between the Alaska Climate Science Center and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Alaska Natives and Corporations,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Indigenous Peoples,
Northwest CASC,
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12875/abstract): Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosystems. We synthesized existing methane (CH 4) and carbon dioxide (CO 2) production measurements from anaerobic incubations of boreal and tundra soils from the geographic permafrost region to evaluate large-scale controls of anaerobic CO 2 and CH 4 production and compare the relative importance...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Alaska CASC,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
anaerobic incubation,
Abstract: P-band interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data at 5 m resolution from Kahiltna Glacier, the largest glacier in the Alaska Range, Alaska, USA, show pronounced spatial variation in penetration depth, δ P. We obtained δ P by differencing X- and P-band digital elevation models. δ P varied significantly over the glacier, but it was possible to distinguish representative zones. In the accumulation area, δ P decreased with decreasing elevation from 18±3 m in the percolation zone to 10±4 m in the wet snow zone. In the central portion of the ablation area, a location free of debris and crevasses, we identified a zone of very high δ P (34±4 m) which decreased at lower elevations (23±3 m in bare ice...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Forests,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Kahiltna Glacier,
Landscapes,
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873965215000110): The goal of this study was to assess the importance of the 2007 sea ice retreat for hydrologic conditions on the Alaskan North Slope, and how this may have influenced the outbreak of tundra fires in this region. This study concentrates on two years, 2007 and 1996, with different arctic sea ice conditions and tundra fire activity. The year of 2007 is characterized by a low summer sea ice extent (second lowest) and high tundra fire activity, while 1996 had high sea ice extent, and few tundra fires. Atmospheric lateral boundary forcing from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis drove the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, along with varying...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Atmospheric circulation,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
Sea ice,
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Snow conditions are extremely important to a wide range of hydrologic and ecosystem components and processes, including those related to surface energy and moisture stores and fluxes, vegetation, mammals, birds, and fish. The required snow datasets currently do not exist at the required spatial and temporal resolutions needed by end users such as scientists, land managers, and policy makers.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Arctic,
Arctic,
Landscapes,
Other Water,
Abstract: To test the effects of altered hydrology on organic soil decomposition, we investigated CO2 and CH4 production potential of rich-fen peat (mean surface pH = 6.3) collected from a field water table manipulation experiment including control, raised and lowered water table treatments. Mean anaerobic CO2 production potential at 10 cm depth (14.1 ± 0.9 μmol C g-1 d-1) was as high as aerobic CO2 production potential (10.6 ± 1.5 μmol C g-1 d-1), while CH4 production was low (mean of 7.8 ± 1.5 nmol C g-1 d-1). Denitrification enzyme activity indicated a very high denitrification potential (197 ± 23 μg N g-1 d-1), but net reduction suggested this was a relatively minor pathway for anaerobic CO2 production. Abundances...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Alaska CASC,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
anaerobic carbon cycling,
Abstract (from: http://www.igsoc.org/journal/60/221/j13J176.html): The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a globally complete collection of digital outlines of glaciers, excluding the ice sheets, developed to meet the needs of the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for estimates of past and future mass balance. The RGI was created with limited resources in a short period. Priority was given to completeness of coverage, but a limited, uniform set of attributes is attached to each of the ~198 000 glaciers in its latest version, 3.2. Satellite imagery from 1999–2010 provided most of the outlines. Their total extent is estimated as 726 800 +/- 34 000 km2. The uncertainty, about +/-...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Antarctic glaciology,
Arctic glaciology,
Forests,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
This 4-page publication was produced from the March 2013 Juneau Glacier Workshop. The publication describes the current understanding of the interconnected icefield, stream, and ocean systems that are such a dominant feature of coastal Alaska. The publication describes the state of research on glaciers and icefields, glacier ecology, and the role that glaciers play in ocean processes.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Alaska coastal ecosystems,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Science Tools For Managers,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Abstract (from http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/65/5/499): Rates of glacier mass loss in the northern Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) are among the highest on Earth, and changes in glacier volume and extent will affect the flow regime and chemistry of coastal rivers, as well as the nearshore marine ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska. Here we synthesize physical, chemical and biological linkages that characterize the northern PCTR ecosystem, with particular emphasis on the potential impacts of glacier change in the coastal mountain ranges on the surface–water hydrology, biogeochemistry, coastal oceanography and aquatic ecology. We also evaluate the relative importance and interplay between interannual...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Glaciers,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Rainforest,
Science Tools For Managers,
Abstract (from Geophysical Research Letters): Lateral transport of organic carbon (OC) to the coastal ocean is an important component of the global carbon cycle because rivers transport, mineralize, and bury significant amounts of OC. Glaciers drive water and sediment export from many high‐elevation and high‐latitude ecosystems, yet their role in watershed OC balances is poorly understood, particularly with regard to particulate OC. Here, we evaluate seasonal water, sediment, and comprehensive OC budgets, including both dissolved and particulate forms, for three watersheds in southeast Alaska that vary in glacier coverage. We show that glacier loss will shift the dominant size fraction of riverine OC from particulate...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Streamwater dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are driven by interacting physical and biotic parameters. Future DO depletion events in small, coastal salmon streams are therefore likely to be driven by changes in hydrology in addition to atmospheric warming. We measured DO, temperature, discharge and spawning salmon abundance in upstream (reference reach) and downstream salmon bearing reaches of four streams in southeast Alaska to determine how multiple physical and biotic factors interact to control streamwater DO. Stream temperature ranged from 5.1 to 15.8 °C and fell within the optimum range that is considered favorable for salmon physiology. Concentrations of DO ranged from 2.8 to 12.3 mg/L, with concentrations...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Forests,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Landscapes,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Abstract: Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9934/abstract): Adaptation planning in Alaska, as in other snowy parts of the world, will require snow projections, yet snow is a challenging variable to measure, simulate and downscale. Here we describe the construction and evaluation of 771-m-resolution gridded historical and statistically downscaled projections of snow/rain partitioning for the state of Alaska at decadal temporal resolution. The method developed here uses observational data to describe the relationship between average monthly temperature and the fraction of wet days in that month receiving snow, the snow-day fraction. Regionally and seasonally specific equations were developed to...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska,
Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
climate change,
Abstract (from Forests): Research Highlights: Flammability of wildland fuels is a key factor influencing risk-based decisions related to preparedness, response, and safety in Alaska. However, without effective measures of current and expected flammability, the expected likelihood of active and problematic wildfires in the future is difficult to assess and prepare for. This study evaluates the effectiveness of diverse indices to capture high-risk fires. Indicators of drought and atmospheric drivers are assessed along with the operational Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Background and Objectives: In this study, 13 different indicators of atmospheric conditions, fuel moisture, and flammability are...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
The rapid loss of arctic sea ice is forcing a larger proportion of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population to spend more time on land, increasing chances of negative interactions between people and bears. In the United States, the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) protects polar bears from incidental disturbance from human activities. For the remote and roadless areas of northern Alaska, USA, effective management of small aircraft activity is necessary to limit disturbance, but effects of overflights on polar bear behavior are largely unknown. During 2021 and 2022, we intentionally exposed polar bears (n = 115) to systematic aircraft activity (helicopter, fixed-wing) until we observed...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from The Cryosphere): There is significant uncertainty regarding the spatiotemporal distribution of seasonal snow on glaciers, despite being a fundamental component of glacier mass balance. To address this knowledge gap, we collected repeat, spatially extensive high-frequency ground-penetrating radar (GPR) observations on two glaciers in Alaska during the spring of 5 consecutive years. GPR measurements showed steep snow water equivalent (SWE) elevation gradients at both sites; continental Gulkana Glacier's SWE gradient averaged 115 mm 100 m−1 and maritime Wolverine Glacier's gradient averaged 440 mm 100 m−1 (over > 1000 m). We extrapolated GPR point observations across the glacier surface using terrain...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Forests,
Glaciers and Permafrost,
Landscapes,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303446): Across a global network of eddy covariance flux towers, two relatively new open-path infrared gas analyzers (IRGAs), the IRGASON and the EC150, are increasingly used to measure net carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes (Fc_OP). Differences in net CO2 fluxes derived from open- and closed-path IRGAs in general remain poorly constrained. In particular, the performance of the IRGASON and the EC150 for measuring Fc_OP has not been characterized yet. These IRGAs measure CO2 absorption, which is scaled with air temperature and pressure before converting it to instantaneous CO2 density. This sensor-internal conversion is based on a slow-response thermistor...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Absorption,
Alaska CASC,
Carbon dioxide fluxes,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
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