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Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were...
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Understanding age and growth are important for fisheries science and management; however, age data are not routinely collected for many populations. We propose and test a method of borrowing age–length data across increasingly broader spatiotemporal levels to create a hierarchical age–length key (HALK). We assessed this method by comparing growth and mortality metrics to those estimated from lake–year age–length keys ages using seven common freshwater fish species across the upper Midwestern United States. Levels used for data borrowing began most specifically by borrowing within lake across time and increased in breadth to include data within the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watershed, HUC8 watershed, Level III...
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Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases....
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Emydoidea blandingii (Holbrook, 1838; Blanding’s turtles) are a species of medium-sized, long-lived, semiaquatic, freshwater turtles with a wide distribution across the northern and eastern United States and southern Canada. They have an annual activity cycle consisting of late autumn and winter overwintering and spring emergence, spring movement and foraging, spring and summer nesting, and summer and autumn foraging and nonnesting movement. In response to changes in average and extreme temperatures, Blanding’s turtles are likely to experience increased physiological stress and reduced reproductive success. Variability in precipitation may affect the availability of freshwater habitats for overwintering, shelter,...
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In response to concerns from Tribal leadership in the Midwest region, a Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (MWCASC) and Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) team explored how climate change may affect name (also known as lake sturgeon). This project investigated potential impacts and what can be done to help name adapt to a changing climate.
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We updated an existing online climate change vulnerability dashboard called the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). The dashboard combined 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions to create a vulnerability score for 360 watersheds across the Midwest. The vulnerability assessment can be customized for any species, habitat, or other resource of interest by users by adjusting the weighting given to each of the metrics. The updates include greater representation of the range of potential...
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Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in...
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Color polymorphism is an adaptive strategy in which a species exhibits multiple color phenotypes in a population. Often, phenotypes are variably suited to different environmental conditions which may buffer the population against variable conditions. Modern climate change is creating novel selective pressures for many species, especially in winter habitats. Few studies have quantified the benefits of polymorphism for allowing species to cope with climate-induced environmental change, particularly for species with more cryptic differences between morphs. We investigated how color polymorphism mediates selective pressures in ruffed grouse Bonasa umbellus, a winter-adapted bird species of North American forests. Ruffed...
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Abstract (from Ecological Applications): Black ash wetlands cover approximately 1.2 million ha of wetland forest in the western Great Lakes region, providing critical habitat for wildlife. The future of these wetlands is critically threatened by a variety of factors, including emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis; emerald ash borer [EAB]), which has been eliminating native populations of otherwise healthy ash throughout the Great Lakes region since it was discovered in 2002. To quantify the potential impacts of tree mortality from EAB on wildlife communities, we measured seasonal bird, mammal, and amphibian diversity in black ash wetlands using a dual approach: (1) documenting bird and amphibian species across...
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Walleye (Sander vitreus) and Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) are culturally, economically, and ecologically significant fish species in North America that are affected by drivers of global change. Here, we review and synthesize the published literature documenting the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch. We focus on four drivers: climate (including temperature and precipitation), aquatic invasive species, land use and nutrient loading, and water clarity. We identified 1232 tests from 370 papers, split evenly between Walleye (N=613) and Yellow Perch (N=620). Climate was the most frequently studied driver (N=572) and growth/condition was the most frequently studied response (N=297). The most commonly...
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Our aim was to describe shifts in autumn and winter harvest distributions of three species of dabbling ducks (blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) in the Central and Mississippi flyways of North America during 1960–2019. We measured shifts in band recovery distributions corrected for changes in hunting season dates and zones by using kernel density estimators to calculate 10 distributional metrics. We then assessed interannual and intraspecific variation by comparing species-specific changes in distributional metrics for 4 months (October–January) and three geographically based subpopulations. During 1960–2019, band recovery distributions shifted west-...
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Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying...
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Black ash (Fraxinus nigra) forests, which cover over 1.2 million hectares in the Great Lakes Region, are threatened by emerald ash borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis), which is eliminating native populations of ash throughout the region. Understanding the contribution of black ash wetlands to local and regional species richness is critical in forming effective conservation policies and informing management plans for these imperiled habitats. We measured breeding bird and anuran communities in black ash wetlands and compared them to nearby non-black ash habitats for each taxa: aspen-dominated upland forest for birds and emergent wetlands for anurans. Our results showed black ash wetlands support unique communities of...
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Uncertainty and emerging threats associated with climate change necessitate the development of new approaches for managing forest ecosystems. To address this need the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) Network was established to examine the efficacy of three climate adaptation strategies in important forest types across North America: 1) resistance to change by increasing overstory tree health through reduced inter-tree competition, 2) resilience by creating conditions that allow change within the natural range of variability while encouraging greater abundance of native species considered suitable for projected future climate, and 3) transition which involves actively facilitating systems to have a...
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Many real-world scientific processes are governed by complex non-linear dynamic systems that can be represented by differential equations. Recently, there has been an increased interest in learning, or discovering, the forms of the equations driving these complex non-linear dynamic systems using data-driven approaches. In this paper, we review the current literature on data-driven discovery for dynamic systems. We provide a categorisation to the different approaches for data-driven discovery and a unified mathematical framework to show the relationship between the approaches. Importantly, we discuss the role of statistics in the data-driven discovery field, describe a possible approach by which the problem can be...
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Ambystoma barbouri (streamside salamanders) are stream-breeding mole salamanders that rely on seasonally intermittent, fishless streams for egg and larval development but are primarily fossorial as adults. Climate-driven changes are likely to alter streamflow duration, peak, and seasonality within the range of A. barbouri, reducing reproductive habitat and larval survival. Although future changes in precipitation volume within the geographic range of A. barbouri are uncertain, in the next 90 years, increasing temperatures will likely increase potential evapotranspiration. Decreasing ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration will likely shorten flow duration for intermittent streams, potentially causing...
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The spread of invasive mussels (Dreissena spp.) has increased water clarity in many Midwest lakes, as the mussels filter algae out of the water. Fish are at greater risk of damage from UV radiation in clearer water, and will move deeper, hide under structure, and take refuge under ice to avoid harm. However, warming temperatures from climate change are reducing ice cover on many lakes, threatening early life stages of species like Cisco with increased exposure to UV radiation.
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Acipenser fulvescens (Rafinesque, 1817; lake sturgeon) are the only sturgeon species native to the Great Lakes region and are threatened across most of their range. They are historically vulnerable because of overfishing and habitat fragmentation with the potential for climate change acting as an increasing stressor in the future. Lake sturgeon span multiple habitats during their long lifespans, including high gradient streams, nearshore areas, and deep rivers and lakes. Climate change is projected to strongly affect the suitability of these habitats through increasing precipitation and temperatures and decreasing ice cover and snowmelt. Changes in flow timing and amount can affect movement to spawning and nursery...
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Active management for promoting oaks (Quercus spp.) and restraining maples (Acer spp.) is mostly conducted in public forests (e.g., national forests [NF] and state forests [SF]) because of oaks' ecological and economic importance. Studies have shown that current management efforts have limited success, meanwhile, oak-dominant forests continue to shift in composition and structure to shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive mesophytic species (e.g., red maple A. rubrum). It remains to be evaluated whether current management can achieve its objectives in public forests and at regional scales. In this study, we investigated the long-term outcomes of business-as-usual (BAU) and alternative management (AltMgt) scenarios in a large,...
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