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In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere...
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Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees. Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project...
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Alaska has complex topography, with its extensive coastlines, dozens of islands, and mountain ranges that contain the tallest peaks in North America. Topography can have a strong influence on temperature and precipitation, therefore accurate representations of the terrain can improve the quality of simulations of past and future climate conditions. The spatial resolution of globally-available climate data is typically too coarse (~80 to 100 km) to adequately detect local landscape features, meaning these models aren’t useful for predicting future conditions in Alaska. In order for the state to adequately prepare for and adapt to changing conditions, high-resolution climate data is needed. One solution for acquiring...
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Communities, state and federal agencies, resource managers, and decision makers throughout Alaska need sound scientific information to better understand our changing world to make informed, science-based decisions that will shape the future. Scientists also need information from these stakeholders to understand what science questions need to be answered, develop research priorities, and gain important insight about the landscape based on personal experiences and generational knowledge. However, effective two-way conversations between scientists and stakeholders are often limited, due to resource constraints, a lack of necessary communication skills and tools, and other factors. A mechanism for better communication...
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The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC) has a strong track record of working collaboratively with government entities to co-produce actionable science in areas including: high resolution dynamical and statistical downscaling, process and mechanistic-based ecosystem modeling, and glacier dynamics. The AK CASC is therefore uniquely positioned to facilitate and conduct science that informs specific management decisions within the state. The AK CASC is hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) with consortium partners University of Alaska Anchorage and University of Alaska Southeast. To learn more about Host Agreement Projects and University of Alaska - Fairbanks projects, visit: https://akcasc.org/about-us/projects-overview/...
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In Alaska, extreme climate events such as very warm days, very cold days, and intense storms can have a range of impacts, from damaging infrastructure to disrupting the tourism economy. For example, in 2013, a colder than normal spring led to late ice break-up and rapid thaw, causing massive flooding along the Yukon River that displaced roughly 500 residents in a single town. Meanwhile, in Denali, cold May temperatures delayed openings for some tourist-related businesses. Previous work has identified which atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with extreme events, information which can help refine forecasts and downscale future climate projections. The goal of this project is to test whether these patterns...
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In coastal Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and extreme weather events threaten human communities, critical infrastructure, valuable natural resources, and traditional, subsistence hunting and fishing lifestyles. Understanding how changing climate conditions impact Alaska’s coastal ecosystems, and how these changes may be tied to the ability of coastal communities to adapt to changing conditions, has been identified as a priority question in the state. In order to identify knowledge gaps and resource needs related to adaptation and resilience in coastal Alaska, the Alaska Climate Science Center partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and a dozen other entities...
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In Alaska, increased wildfire activity has been linked to warming temperatures. Summers with extreme wildfire activity threaten life and property, clog the air with smoke, and challenge the state’s wildland firefighters. While the largest fires are often started by lightning and burn in remote areas, these fires require significant resources to fight when they threaten life and property. Increased wildfire activity is projected to continue in Alaska, as climate conditions change. Therefore, understanding how to best calculate fire risk based on short and long-term weather conditions is needed to improve fire season forecasts. Currently, Alaska’s fire managers rely on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to monitor...
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Understanding how snow will change over the coming century is vital in understanding environmental changes across Alaska. Changes in snow are also economically important to many sectors, from recreation to commercial fishing. An earlier set of rain-snow partitioning and snowfall equivalent projections based on downscaled CMIP3 temperature and precipitation projections have been used extensively. In this project, we developed updated projections for the fraction of precipitation days that are snowy (vs. rainy) and the amount of precipitation that likely falls as snow to be consistent with the newest downscaled temperature and precipitation released by SNAP. The outputs are decadal monthly averages. The updated snow...
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This dataset contains historical and projected dynamically downscaled climate data for the State of Alaska and surrounding regions at 20km spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. Select variables are also summarized into daily resolutions. This data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Version 3.5). We downscaled both ERA-Interim historical reanalysis data (1979 - Oct 2015) and both historical and projected runs from 2 GCM’s from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5): GFDL-CM3 and NCAR-CCSM4 (historical run: 1970-2005 and RCP 8.5: 2006-2100). This dataset was updated in August, 2023 to retain useful fields of latitude and longitude geolocation grids from...
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In coastal Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and extreme weather events threaten human communities, critical infrastructure, valuable natural resources, and hunting and fishing livelihoods. Identifying how changing climate conditions impact Alaska’s coastal ecosystems, and how these changes may be tied to the ability of coastal communities to adapt to changing conditions, has been identified as a priority question in the state. In order to identify knowledge gaps and resource needs related to adaptation and resilience in coastal Alaska, the Alaska Climate Science Center partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and others in 2016 to hold a series of workshops in...
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Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) provide essential habitat for wildlife of management interest, including diverse communities of shorebirds and waterfowl. The low-lying ACP region is located on the North Slope of Alaska, and is rich with shallow lakes and ponds that form as a result of permafrost freeze-thaw cycles. This region is a primary nesting site for many migratory birds. The YKD, meanwhile, is a vast wetland/tundra landscape on Alaska’s remote western coast. One of the largest deltas in the world, the YKD supports millions of nesting and migrating waterfowl and shorebirds, and is the largest goose nesting habitat in North America. As climate conditions change and permafrost...
    map background search result map search result map Assessing Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting Methods in Alaska Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Community Outreach and Engagement Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Region Bringing Scientists and Stakeholders Together through ScienceTapes (Alaska Voices) Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Understanding Landscape Change in the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain and Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (2017-2021) Alaska Divisional Drought Indices Downscaled Climate Data for Alaska Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Understanding Landscape Change in the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain and Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Assessing Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting Methods in Alaska Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Bringing Scientists and Stakeholders Together through ScienceTapes (Alaska Voices) Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Alaska Divisional Drought Indices Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (2017-2021) Downscaled Climate Data for Alaska Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Region Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Community Outreach and Engagement