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Abstract (from Wiley Online Library) A method is developed for choosing 21st Century streamflow projections among widely varying results from a large ensemble of climate model-driven simulations. We quantify observed trends in climate–streamflow relationships in the Rio Grande headwaters, which has experienced warming temperature and declining snowpack since the mid-20th Century. Prominent trends in the snowmelt runoff season are used to assess corresponding statistics in downscaled global climate model projections. We define “Observationally Consistent (OC)” simulations as those that reproduce historical changes to linear statistics of diminished snowpack–streamflow coupling in the headwaters and an associated...
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Declining snowpack is one of most easily visible features of a warming climate in mountainous areas of western North America, and the further decline of snowpack is a robust projection from climate models simulating a warmer future climate. Major rivers in western North America are largely fed by snowpack, but the physical relationship between temperature change and snowmelt runoff is complicated, and model projections of future streamflow in western rivers vary widely. The goal of this project was to assess the changing relationship between snowpack and streamflow in the headwaters basin of the Rio Grande, using both observed data and climate model simulations. First, we assessed how well measured snowpack served...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
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