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Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees. Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2017, Alaska, Alaska CASC, CASC, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Fire, Projects by Region, Fewer tags Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Alaska has complex topography, with its extensive coastlines, dozens of islands, and mountain ranges that contain the tallest peaks in North America. Topography can have a strong influence on temperature and precipitation, therefore accurate representations of the terrain can improve the quality of simulations of past and future climate conditions. The spatial resolution of globally-available climate data is typically too coarse (~80 to 100 km) to adequately detect local landscape features, meaning these models aren’t useful for predicting future conditions in Alaska. In order for the state to adequately prepare for and adapt to changing conditions, high-resolution climate data is needed. One solution for acquiring... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2017, Alaska, Alaska CASC, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Data Visualization & Tools, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Fewer tags A Comparison of Fire Weather Indices with MODIS Fire Days for the Natural Regions of Alaska Abstract (from Forests): Research Highlights: Flammability of wildland fuels is a key factor influencing risk-based decisions related to preparedness, response, and safety in Alaska. However, without effective measures of current and expected flammability, the expected likelihood of active and problematic wildfires in the future is difficult to assess and prepare for. This study evaluates the effectiveness of diverse indices to capture high-risk fires. Indicators of drought and atmospheric drivers are assessed along with the operational Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Background and Objectives: In this study, 13 different indicators of atmospheric conditions, fuel moisture, and flammability are... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Ecosystem Dynamics and Fate of Warm Permafrost after Tundra Wildfire and Lake Drainage on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) encompasses the southernmost, warmest parts of the arctic tundra biome and is renowned for its high biological productivity and large subsistence-based human population. Ice-rich permafrost currently is widespread and strongly influences terrestrial and aquatic habitats, including local topography, vegetation, soil hydrology, and the water balance of lakes. Ground temperatures are near the freezing point, however, and recent projections indicate that the YKD is poised for widespread loss of permafrost by the end of this century. This has implications for the region’s extensive and heretofore stable terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Tundra wildfire is a common ecological “pulse” disturbance... Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, AK-00, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, Conservation NGOs, All tags... DRAINAGE, DRAINAGE, Data Acquisition and Development, ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS, ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS, Federal resource managers, Federal resource managers, Hunters & anglers, Interested public, Interested public, LAKES, LAKES, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Large mammals, MODELS, MODELS, Map, Monitoring, PERMAFROST, PERMAFROST, PERMAFROST MELT, PERMAFROST MELT, Policy makers & regulators, Population & Habitat Evaluation/Projection, Population & Habitat Evaluation/Projection, Presentation, Project, Regional & county planners, Report, Socio-economics/Ecosystem Services, State agencies, State agencies, Training/Outreach/Workshop, Tribes, Tribes, VEGETATION, VEGETATION, VEGETATION COVER, VEGETATION COVER, Vulnerability Assessment, WILDFIRES, WILDFIRES, Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, environment, environment, onGoing, Fewer tags Gridded 20km Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for the State of Alaska from 1979 to 2017 Reference evapotranspiration (ET0), like potential evapotranspiration, is a measure of atmospheric evaporative demand. It was used in the context of this study to evaluate drought conditions that can lead to wildfire activity in Alaska using the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The ET0 data are on a 20km grid with daily temporal resolution and were computed using the meteorological inputs from the dynamically downscaled ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate model projections (CCSM4 and GFDL-CM3). The model projections are from CMIP5 and use the RCP8.5 scenario. The dynamically downscaled data are available at https://registry.opendata.aws/wrf-alaska-snap/.... Categories: Data; Types: NetCDF OPeNDAP Service; Tags: Alaska, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, dataset, drought, reference evapotranspiration, All tags... service, wildfire, Fewer tags A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska In the last decade, the annual area burned by wildfires in Alaska has doubled relative to any of the previous four decades, and the current frequency of fire is unprecedented over the past 1,200 years. Wildland fires are one of the main contributors to long-term changes in the structure and function of boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Although fire is a necessary component of regulating these ecosystems, it also poses a hazard to humans when uncontrolled. Currently, fire managers use the Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to perform calculations that can assist in field management of fires, but the only version of this tool that is available depends on network access, which poses a significant limitation for... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2020, Alaska, Alaska CASC, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Data Visualization & Tools, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Fire, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Fewer tags Projecting Future Streamflow in Southeast Alaska Understanding freshwater flow is frequently highlighted as a priority in land management planning and assessments. Changes in climate can impact streamflow through reduced snowpack and snowfall, earlier spring runoff, increased winter flow and flooding, and decreased summer flow. In Southeast Alaska, streamflow is expected to shift dramatically in response to changes in factors such as precipitation and air temperature. Understanding how streamflow might change is instrumental not only for predicting changes in plant distribution and soil moisture, but also for infrastructure planning. Culvert replacement, bridge design, hydropower development, water reservoir placement, and floodplain restoration planning all require... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2018, Alaska, Alaska CASC, CASC, Projects by Region, All tags... Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Alaska is an ecologically, commercially, and recreationally diverse state, providing value to people and terrestrial and aquatic species alike. Presently, Alaska is experiencing climatic change faster than any other area of the United States, but across the state, comprehensive environmental monitoring is logistically difficult and expensive. For instance, only about 1% of U.S Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages are in Alaska, and only about 50% of those gages measure water temperature, an important climate change indicator. In this study, predictive models are being used to map stream temperatures under current and future climate scenarios across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins (YKRB) at the stream reach... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2020, Alaska, Alaska CASC, CASC, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Fire, Fish, Fish, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Gridded 20km Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for the State of Alaska from 1979 to 2017 Reference evapotranspiration (ET0), like potential evapotranspiration, is a measure of atmospheric evaporative demand. It was used in the context of this study to evaluate drought conditions that can lead to wildfire activity in Alaska using the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The ET0 data are on a 20km grid with daily temporal resolution and were computed using the meteorological inputs from the dynamically downscaled ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate model projections (CCSM4 and GFDL-CM3). The model projections are from CMIP5 and use the RCP8.5 scenario. The dynamically downscaled data are available at https://registry.opendata.aws/wrf-alaska-snap/.... Categories: Data; Types: NetCDF OPeNDAP Service; Tags: Alaska, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, dataset, drought, reference evapotranspiration, All tags... service, wildfire, Fewer tags Assessing Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting Methods in Alaska In Alaska, increased wildfire activity has been linked to warming temperatures. Summers with extreme wildfire activity threaten life and property, clog the air with smoke, and challenge the state’s wildland firefighters. While the largest fires are often started by lightning and burn in remote areas, these fires require significant resources to fight when they threaten life and property. Increased wildfire activity is projected to continue in Alaska, as climate conditions change. Therefore, understanding how to best calculate fire risk based on short and long-term weather conditions is needed to improve fire season forecasts. Currently, Alaska’s fire managers rely on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to monitor... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2017, Alaska, Alaska CASC, Alaska wildfire, CASC, All tags... Completed, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Fire, Projects by Region, fire weather index, future projections, Fewer tags Ecosystem Dynamics and Fate of Warm Permafrost after Tundra Wildfire on Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) encompasses the southernmost, warmest parts of the arctic tundra biome and is renowned for its high biological productivity and large subsistence-based human population. Ice-rich permafrost currently is widespread and strongly influences terrestrial and aquatic habitats, including local topography, vegetation, soil hydrology, and the water balance of lakes. Ground temperatures are near the freezing point, however, and recent projections indicate that the YKD is poised for widespread loss of permafrost by the end of this century. This has implications for the region’s extensive and heretofore stable terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Tundra wildfire is a common ecological “pulse” disturbance... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, LCC, Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative Projections of Hydroclimatic Extremes in Southeast Alaska under the RCP8.5 Scenario Abstract (from Earth Interactions): Parts of southeast Alaska experienced record drought in 2019, followed by record daily precipitation in late 2020 with substantial impacts to human health and safety, energy resources, and fisheries. To help ascertain whether these types of events can be expected more frequently, this study investigated observed trends and projected changes of hydroclimatic extremes indices across southeast Alaska, including measures of precipitation variability, seasonality, magnitude, and type. Observations indicated mixed tendencies of interannual precipitation variability, but there were consistent trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. Projected changes were assessed using dynamically... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation