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The Incredible HALK: Borrowing Data for Age Assignment Understanding age and growth are important for fisheries science and management; however, age data are not routinely collected for many populations. We propose and test a method of borrowing age–length data across increasingly broader spatiotemporal levels to create a hierarchical age–length key (HALK). We assessed this method by comparing growth and mortality metrics to those estimated from lake–year age–length keys ages using seven common freshwater fish species across the upper Midwestern United States. Levels used for data borrowing began most specifically by borrowing within lake across time and increased in breadth to include data within the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watershed, HUC8 watershed, Level III... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Potential Effects of Climate Change on Emydoidea blandingii (Blanding’s Turtle) Emydoidea blandingii (Holbrook, 1838; Blanding’s turtles) are a species of medium-sized, long-lived, semiaquatic, freshwater turtles with a wide distribution across the northern and eastern United States and southern Canada. They have an annual activity cycle consisting of late autumn and winter overwintering and spring emergence, spring movement and foraging, spring and summer nesting, and summer and autumn foraging and nonnesting movement. In response to changes in average and extreme temperatures, Blanding’s turtles are likely to experience increased physiological stress and reduced reproductive success. Variability in precipitation may affect the availability of freshwater habitats for overwintering, shelter,... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases.... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service Name in a changing climate: Research partnership supports Tribal stewardship of name In response to concerns from Tribal leadership in the Midwest region, a Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (MWCASC) and Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) team explored how climate change may affect name (also known as lake sturgeon). This project investigated potential impacts and what can be done to help name adapt to a changing climate. Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to Support Regional Climate Adaptation We updated an existing online climate change vulnerability dashboard called the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). The dashboard combined 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions to create a vulnerability score for 360 watersheds across the Midwest. The vulnerability assessment can be customized for any species, habitat, or other resource of interest by users by adjusting the weighting given to each of the metrics. The updates include greater representation of the range of potential... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Survival of a polymorphic species in seasonally snow-covered forests Color polymorphism is an adaptive strategy in which a species exhibits multiple color phenotypes in a population. Often, phenotypes are variably suited to different environmental conditions which may buffer the population against variable conditions. Modern climate change is creating novel selective pressures for many species, especially in winter habitats. Few studies have quantified the benefits of polymorphism for allowing species to cope with climate-induced environmental change, particularly for species with more cryptic differences between morphs. We investigated how color polymorphism mediates selective pressures in ruffed grouse Bonasa umbellus, a winter-adapted bird species of North American forests. Ruffed... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Potential impacts of emerald ash borer and adaptation strategies on wildlife communities in black ash wetlands Abstract (from Ecological Applications): Black ash wetlands cover approximately 1.2 million ha of wetland forest in the western Great Lakes region, providing critical habitat for wildlife. The future of these wetlands is critically threatened by a variety of factors, including emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis; emerald ash borer [EAB]), which has been eliminating native populations of otherwise healthy ash throughout the Great Lakes region since it was discovered in 2002. To quantify the potential impacts of tree mortality from EAB on wildlife communities, we measured seasonal bird, mammal, and amphibian diversity in black ash wetlands using a dual approach: (1) documenting bird and amphibian species across... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Accounting for spatiotemporal sampling variation in joint species distribution models Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation It’s complicated and it depends: A review of the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch Populations in North America Walleye (Sander vitreus) and Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) are culturally, economically, and ecologically significant fish species in North America that are affected by drivers of global change. Here, we review and synthesize the published literature documenting the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch. We focus on four drivers: climate (including temperature and precipitation), aquatic invasive species, land use and nutrient loading, and water clarity. We identified 1232 tests from 370 papers, split evenly between Walleye (N=613) and Yellow Perch (N=620). Climate was the most frequently studied driver (N=572) and growth/condition was the most frequently studied response (N=297). The most commonly... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Long-term changes in autumn–winter harvest distributions vary among duck species, months, and subpopulations Our aim was to describe shifts in autumn and winter harvest distributions of three species of dabbling ducks (blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) in the Central and Mississippi flyways of North America during 1960–2019. We measured shifts in band recovery distributions corrected for changes in hunting season dates and zones by using kernel density estimators to calculate 10 distributional metrics. We then assessed interannual and intraspecific variation by comparing species-specific changes in distributional metrics for 4 months (October–January) and three geographically based subpopulations. During 1960–2019, band recovery distributions shifted west-... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ambystoma barbouri (Streamside Salamander) Ambystoma barbouri (streamside salamanders) are stream-breeding mole salamanders that rely on seasonally intermittent, fishless streams for egg and larval development but are primarily fossorial as adults. Climate-driven changes are likely to alter streamflow duration, peak, and seasonality within the range of A. barbouri, reducing reproductive habitat and larval survival. Although future changes in precipitation volume within the geographic range of A. barbouri are uncertain, in the next 90 years, increasing temperatures will likely increase potential evapotranspiration. Decreasing ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration will likely shorten flow duration for intermittent streams, potentially causing... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Ultraviolet (UV) Radiation in Midwest Lakes: Its Impact on Fish and Fisheries The spread of invasive mussels (Dreissena spp.) has increased water clarity in many Midwest lakes, as the mussels filter algae out of the water. Fish are at greater risk of damage from UV radiation in clearer water, and will move deeper, hide under structure, and take refuge under ice to avoid harm. However, warming temperatures from climate change are reducing ice cover on many lakes, threatening early life stages of species like Cisco with increased exposure to UV radiation. Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Potential Effects of Climate Change on Acipenser fulvescens (Lake Sturgeon) Acipenser fulvescens (Rafinesque, 1817; lake sturgeon) are the only sturgeon species native to the Great Lakes region and are threatened across most of their range. They are historically vulnerable because of overfishing and habitat fragmentation with the potential for climate change acting as an increasing stressor in the future. Lake sturgeon span multiple habitats during their long lifespans, including high gradient streams, nearshore areas, and deep rivers and lakes. Climate change is projected to strongly affect the suitability of these habitats through increasing precipitation and temperatures and decreasing ice cover and snowmelt. Changes in flow timing and amount can affect movement to spawning and nursery... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation A Review of Data-Driven Discovery for Dynamic Systems Many real-world scientific processes are governed by complex non-linear dynamic systems that can be represented by differential equations. Recently, there has been an increased interest in learning, or discovering, the forms of the equations driving these complex non-linear dynamic systems using data-driven approaches. In this paper, we review the current literature on data-driven discovery for dynamic systems. We provide a categorisation to the different approaches for data-driven discovery and a unified mathematical framework to show the relationship between the approaches. Importantly, we discuss the role of statistics in the data-driven discovery field, describe a possible approach by which the problem can be... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Evaluating At-Risk Black Ash Wetlands as Biodiversity Hotspots in Northern Forests Black ash (Fraxinus nigra) forests, which cover over 1.2 million hectares in the Great Lakes Region, are threatened by emerald ash borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis), which is eliminating native populations of ash throughout the region. Understanding the contribution of black ash wetlands to local and regional species richness is critical in forming effective conservation policies and informing management plans for these imperiled habitats. We measured breeding bird and anuran communities in black ash wetlands and compared them to nearby non-black ash habitats for each taxa: aspen-dominated upland forest for birds and emergent wetlands for anurans. Our results showed black ash wetlands support unique communities of... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Response of natural tree regeneration to climate adaptation treatments in Pinus resinosa-dominated forests Uncertainty and emerging threats associated with climate change necessitate the development of new approaches for managing forest ecosystems. To address this need the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) Network was established to examine the efficacy of three climate adaptation strategies in important forest types across North America: 1) resistance to change by increasing overstory tree health through reduced inter-tree competition, 2) resilience by creating conditions that allow change within the natural range of variability while encouraging greater abundance of native species considered suitable for projected future climate, and 3) transition which involves actively facilitating systems to have a... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation BioLake: A first assessment of lake temperature-derived bioclimatic predictors for aquatic invasive species Aquatic invasive species (AIS) present major ecological and economic challenges globally, endangering ecosystems and human livelihoods. Managers and policy makers thus need tools to predict invasion risk and prioritize species and areas of concern, and they often use native range climate matching to determine whether a species could persist in a new location. However, climate matching for AIS often relies on air temperature rather than water temperature due to a lack of global water temperature data layers, and predictive power of models is seldom evaluated. We developed 12 global lake (water) temperature-derived “BioLake” bioclimatic layers for distribution modeling of aquatic species and compared “climatch” climate... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation 1 2 »