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Abstract (from Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution): Climate and land-use change are predicted to lead to widespread changes in population dynamics, but quantitative predictions on the relative effects of these stressors have not yet been examined empirically. We analyzed historical abundance data of 110 terrestrial bird species sampled from 1983 to 2010 along 406 Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) across the western USA. Using boosted-regression trees, we modeled bird abundance at the beginning of this interval as a function of (1) climate variables, (2) Landsat-derived landcover data, (3) the additive and interactive effects of climate and land-cover variables. We evaluated the capacity of each model set to predict observed...
Aim Assessing the influence of land cover in species distribution modelling is limited by the availability of fine-resolution land-cover data appropriate for most species responses. Remote-sensing technology offers great potential for predicting species distributions at large scales, but the cost and required expertise are prohibitive for many applications. We test the usefulness of freely available raw remote-sensing reflectance data in predicting species distributions of 40 commonly occurring bird species in western Oregon. Location Central Coast Range, Cascade and Klamath Mountains Oregon, USA. Methods Information on bird observations was collected from 4598 fixed-radius point counts. Reflectance data...
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Climate change has been implicated in the range shifts and population declines of many species, but the confounding of climate change with other variables, particularly landscape change, hampers inference about causation. Climate envelope models have been used to predict population trends and future distributions, but the reliability of such predictions remains relatively unknown; without tests of model accuracy, policy development will be based on highly uncertain ground. Our team assembled recent developments in change detection mapping and species modeling. Specifically, our objectives were to: (1) use 32-year data on bird distributions to test the reliability of climate envelope models, (2) test whether changes...
Nov 26, 2013 presentation by Seth Wenger, Trout Unlimited; w/ Dan Isaak, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station & Jason Dunham, USGS, Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Cntr. The presentation explains an analytic approach that calculates a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species; and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat. This is based on the journal publication, "Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change," and a bull trout suitable habitat analysis is used to illustrate methods. See: Global Change Biology, DOI:10.1111/gcb.12294 Sponsored by the Northwest Climate Science Center and the Pacific...
Since January 2011, the EROS team studying cheatgrass in the Great Basin has made significant strides developing datasets that identify cheatgrass extents and abundances and cheatgrass dieoff in and around the Winnemucca, Nevada area. Additionally, the team, in partnership with the BLM, received money from the USGS’ Northwest Climate Science Center to expand our cheatgrass dieoff study area to most of the northern Great Basin. In the Winnemucca area, we developed a regression-tree model, trained on Peterson’s cheatgrass maps, that generated a time series (2000 – 2010) of cheatgrass extents and abundances and then analyzed the relationships between this cheatgrass time series and spatially explicit site-specific...
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Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act because of population and habitat fragmentation combined with inadequate regulatory mechanisms to control development in critical areas. In addition to the current threats to habitat, each 1 degree celsius increase in temperature due to climate change is expected to result in an additional 87,000 km2 of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) that will be converted to unsuitable habitat for sage-grouse. Thus, the future distribution and composition of sagebrush landscapes is likely to differ greatly from today’s configuration. We conducted a large, multi-objective project to identify: (1) characteristics of habitats required...
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This project supported a climate assessment workshop for the Northwest region. The workshop brought together regional stakeholders interested in understanding regional climate impacts and identifying strategies for adapting resources to changing conditions. The workshop also initiated a process of participatory activities and communication about the climate assessment, which helped contribute to the broader National Climate Assessment (NCA). By discussing adaptive management solutions with regional stakeholders, the workshop provided regional case study results to the NCA, such as information on local lessons and best practices. Specific workshop objectives included (1) convening and launching a process for coordinating...
Abstract (from http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0098#.VN_BFGjF_gl): Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population...
Bull Trout is the most cold-adapted fish in freshwaters of the Pacific Northwest. The species is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but climate warming may place the species at further risk. Climate warming may lead to warming of streams in summer and increasing probability of floods in winter, leading to widespread loss of habitat projected for Bull Trout. This project sought to further elaborate how these climate-related threats influence Bull Trout across five western states (OR, WA, ID, MT, NV). These states form the southern margin of the species’ range. We used predictions of temperatures in streams across approximately two-thirds of this extent to map coldwater streams or “patches”...
Parent Project: Range-Wide Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Threatened Bull Trout Publication Abstract: Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species’ range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable...
The objective of this study was to determine why certain stream insects tend to be found in certain temperature ranges. Many federal, state and local agencies use stream insects to monitor the health of freshwater ecosystems. While the temperature ranges for some insects are often inferred from the temperature of the waters where they were collected, this inference is coarse at best and problematic at worst. Stream temperatures fluctuate a lot during the year and temperature may or may not control where an insect lives. Field insects were collected and sent to a laboratory for testing several temperature endpoints, particularly at higher temperatures. Respiration, breathing rate, and some physical activities were...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12642/abstract): Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression...
Strontium levels for all sites sampled in the Methow and Columbia rivers. This data was use to match whitefish stream locations to strontium levels in their otoliths. More details can be found in: Benjamin, et al (2014) Spatio-temporal variability in movemnt, age, and growth, of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) in a river network based upon PIT tagging and otolith chemistry. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2014, 71(1): 131-140, 10.1139/cjfas-2013-0279
map background search result map search result map Contribution of Landscape Characteristics and Vegetation Shifts from Global Climate Change to Long-Term Viability of Greater Sage-grouse Disentangling the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change on Bird Population Trends in the Western U.S. and Canada Stakeholder Engagement to Coordinate a Regional Assessment of Climate Stakeholder Engagement to Coordinate a Regional Assessment of Climate Disentangling the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change on Bird Population Trends in the Western U.S. and Canada Contribution of Landscape Characteristics and Vegetation Shifts from Global Climate Change to Long-Term Viability of Greater Sage-grouse