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Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063208/abstract): Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest. We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using...
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The absolute difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 28 for the reference period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 13 for the T2P10 climate change scenario, which are the dates of peak basin-integrated SWE for each period, respectively. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2009 for the McKenzie River Basin domain, and 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T2P10 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +2°C to each daily temperature record, and +10% precipitation to each daily precipitation record in the reference period meteorology, and this data...
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The absolute difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 28 for the reference period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on February 20 for the T4 climate change scenario, which are the dates of peak basin-integrated SWE for each period, respectively. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T4 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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Mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on February 20, the date of peak basin-integrated mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) for the T4P10 climate change scenario. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T4P10 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record, and +10% precipitation to each daily precipitation record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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Estimates of weather suitability for the occurrence of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Weather suitability index was calculated by summing the weather terms in the model. Calculated for 1991 through 2009 based on 800 meter PRISM weather data. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates...
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The following files are designed to be run using the Path Landscape Model software, version 3.0.4. Later versions of the software cannot run these files. To get a copy of this software, please contact Apex RMS at path@apexrms.com. 1) Path models MUST be run with the provided .MCM and .trd mulitplier files to apply the required transition probability adjustments for procesess such as insect outbreaks, wildfire, and climate change trends. Each Path database is set up with three folders: - The 'Common' folder contains a single Path scenario (also named 'Common'). The Transitions tab within the Common scenario contains the climate-smart STM. - The 'Multipliers' folder contains multipliers specific to each ownership-allocation...
This study addressed the challenges faced by natural resource management planning in the context of climate change. We explored how future climate may interact with management alternatives to shape wildlife habitat across large landscapes. We studied habitat for the northern spotted owl in coastal Washington and southwestern Oregon, and habitat for the greater sage-grouse in southeastern Oregon. In coastal Washington, the primary threat to owl habitat is likely to be habitat loss as a result of increasing fire and shifts in vegetation with changing climate. These threats may not be fully mitigated with management. In southwest Oregon, increasing fire frequencies under climate change are also likely to pose the greatest...
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The absolute difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 28 for the reference period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 13 for the T2P10 climate change scenario, which are the dates of peak basin-integrated SWE for each period, respectively. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T2P10 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +2°C to each daily temperature record, and +10% precipitation to each daily precipitation record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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Mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on March 28, the date of peak basin-integrated mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) for the reference climate period. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input.
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The Northwest Climate Conference (formerly called the Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference) is the premier climate science event for the region, providing a forum for researchers and practitioners to share scientific results and discuss challenges and solutions related to the impacts of climate change on people, natural resources, and infrastructure in the Northwest. Conference participants include policy- and decision-makers, resource managers, and scientists from academia, public agencies, sovereign tribal nations, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector. More information can be found at the conference website: http://pnwclimateconference.org. The Third Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science...
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These 1830 maps contain projected current and future change in habitat suitability for 366 species under the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM 3.1) and Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HADCM3). In support of the Pacific Northwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (www.climatevulnerability.org), we developed a method to model habitat suitability in which we built correlative climate suitability models for 366 terrestrial animal species at a relatively coarse spatial resolution for the entire North American continent using species range maps and 23 bioclimatic variables. We then applied the models to both current and projected future climate data downscaled to a moderately fine resolution...


map background search result map search result map Support for the Third Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference Weather Suitability for the Occurrence of Mortality in Whitebark Pine from Mountain Pine Beetles, 1901-2009, Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Study Area Projected past and future habitat suitability for 366 species, 1961-2099, using CGCM31 and HADCM3 climate models Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference between seasonal peak historical and projected values under T2p10 climate change scenario, McKenzie River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference in historical and projected seasonal peak values under T2P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference in historical and projected seasonal peak values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, historical seasonal peak values, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected seasonal peak values under T4P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Future Spotted Owl Habitat Scenarios, Northwest Washington Study Area, 2007-2096 Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference in historical and projected seasonal peak values under T2P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference in historical and projected seasonal peak values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, historical seasonal peak values, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected seasonal peak values under T4P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference between seasonal peak historical and projected values under T2p10 climate change scenario, McKenzie River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Future Spotted Owl Habitat Scenarios, Northwest Washington Study Area, 2007-2096 Weather Suitability for the Occurrence of Mortality in Whitebark Pine from Mountain Pine Beetles, 1901-2009, Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Study Area Support for the Third Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference Projected past and future habitat suitability for 366 species, 1961-2099, using CGCM31 and HADCM3 climate models