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This layer depicts projected abundance of native and non-native plant species in the main Hawaiian Islands with high levels of uncertainty removed in post-processing. To estimate native and invasive species abundance in baseline climate conditions, a map was generated that considered abundance as percent cover and used high coefficient of variation values as a mask. The primary sources for post-processing the uncertainty masks are the Hawaiian Islands plant species abundance modeled means and standard deviation values (Wong et al., in preparation). These maps cover the entire landscape (including urban and agricultural areas), and therefore they can be applied in a variety of ways. Maps can be utilized to evaluate...
Abstract (from Ecological Society of America): Predicting vegetation responses to increased future drought is challenging, owing to the complex interaction of multiple factors influencing both plant drought resistance and local climatic conditions, each of which may be subject to spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We conducted a detailed study of potential mechanisms underlying an elevational gradient in mortality that has characterized recent population declines of a threatened alpine plant, the Haleakalā silversword (Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum). We used a pair of greenhouse experiments staged at high and low elevations to test the influences of plasticity (to contrasting soil water availability...
While the iconic Haleakalā silversword plant made a strong recovery from early 20th-century threats, it has now entered a period of substantial climate-related decline. New research published this week warns that global warming may have severe consequences for the silversword in its native habitat.
Abstract (from AMS100): Spatially continuous data products are essential for a number of applications including climate and hydrologic modeling, weather prediction, and water resource management. In this work, a distance-weighted interpolation method used to map daily rainfall and temperature in Hawaii is described and assessed. New high-resolution (250 m) maps were developed for daily rainfall and daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) near-surface air temperature for the period 1990–2014. Maps were produced using climatologically aided interpolation, in which station anomalies were interpolated using an optimized inverse distance weighting approach and then combined with long-term means to produce daily gridded...
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The present-day run starts on January 1st 1990 and ends on December 31st 2009. The purpose of the present-day run is twofold, e.g., to retrieve the present-day climate and to provide the downscaled high-resolution climate data. The future runs include two scenarios, one for RCP4.5 and the other one for RCP8.5. The future runs represent the time period from January 1st 2080 to December 31st 2099 although the date stamps used for projections are the same as those for the present-day run. The dynamical downscaling provides hourly atmospheric and land surface variables, such as rainfall, surface sensible heat fluxes and evaporation, radiative fluxes, wind, and temperature. These data were previously hosted on the cida.usgs.gov...
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The Hawaiian Islands are home to some of the world’s most culturally valuable but imperiled forest birds, including brightly colored native honeycreepers, many of which are threatened or endangered. One of the major threats these birds face is avian malaria, which is spread by a species of introduced mosquito and can have death rates exceeding 90 percent. For decades, upper mountain forests have provided refuge for Hawaiian forest birds because mosquitoes (and thus the disease) could not survive the cooler temperatures. However, warming associated with climate change could change this. Scientists used climate data and an epidemiological model to evaluate the future impacts of avian malaria on Hawaiian forest birds...
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While home to many people and a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, the U.S. territories of Guam and American Samoa are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced the first-ever set of high-resolution climate projections for Guam and American Samoa, providing information...
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In the expectation that global climate will change steadily in the coming decades, this research project had the goal to obtain a more detailed view of the climatic changes that Hawai’i could experience by the mid and late 21st century. Given the importance of rainfall for Hawaiian ecosystems and freshwater reserves, this project investigated past seasonal rainfall pattern and developed a statistical model to estimate future rainfall changes for the major islands. As a result of this research, high-resolution maps and data are now available that researchers can use to study potential impacts on endangered species, or use the rainfall changes as input in decision-support tools.This data product provides data files...
Climate change is expected to cause many plant and animal species to migrate, and others to decline or go extinct if they can’t move sufficiently to keep up with changing conditions. Mountain-top species are thought to be especially vulnerable because they have limited potential to make such shifts. The Haleakala silversword, also known as ahinahina, occurs near the top of Haleakala volcano on the island of Maui, Hawaii, and is an ideal species with which to investigate plant responses to changing climate conditions. Long-term monitoring data allowed us to determine that the population has undergone a decline of approximately 60% in recent decades, and that this has corresponded to drier conditions that have developed...
Abstract: Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful...
Hawaii’s high and steep topography leads to pronounced small-scale variations in climate, and this makes comprehensive modeling of the weather and climate particularly challenging. This paper describes a regional model formulation designed for simulations of the microclimates in Hawaii and then documents and analyzes an extended retrospective simulation for near-present-day conditions. Part II will apply the model to projected climate conditions near the end of the present century. A nested version of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fine horizontal resolution and improved physics for the Hawaiian region has been configured. A 20-yr triply nested simulation of the...
ISLAND OF HAWAI‘I, Hawaii — Hawai‘i, the name alone elicits images of rhythmic traditional dancing, breathtaking azure sea coasts and scenes of vibrant birds flitting through lush jungle canopy. Unfortunately, the future of many native Hawaiian birds looks grim as diseases carried by mosquitoes are due to expand into higher elevation safe zones. A new study published in Global Change Biology, by researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk to native Hawaiian bird populations in the coming century. Read More in the USGS Press Release: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4270#.Vjo2436rSUl
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1): A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ~2°–4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to...
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a statistical downscaling method in which the relationships between present-day daily weather patterns and local rainfall data are derived and used to project future shifts in the frequency of heavy rainfall events under changing global climate conditions. National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data from wet season months (November to April) 1958–2010 are composited for heavy rain days at 12 rainfall stations in the Hawaiian Islands. The occurrence of heavy rain events (days with amounts above the 90th percentile estimated from all wet season rain days 1958–2010) was found to be strongly correlated...
This Project Snapshot provides a brief summary overview of the project "Vulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change - Using Models to Link Landscape, Climate, Disease, and Potential Adaptation".
map background search result map search result map 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Vulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change Approved DataSets Datasets for "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach" 2015 Hawaiian Islands Plant Species Abundance Models Dynamical Downscaled and Projected Climate for the US Pacific Islands Vulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change Datasets for "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach" Approved DataSets 2015 Hawaiian Islands Plant Species Abundance Models 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Dynamical Downscaled and Projected Climate for the US Pacific Islands