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Abstract (from British Ecological Society): As public land managers seek to adopt and implement conservation measures aimed at reversing or slowing the negative effects of climate change, they are looking to understand public opinion regarding different management strategies. This study explores drivers of attitudes towards different management strategies (i.e. no management, protection and restoration) for a low‐profile but keystone tree species, the whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis , in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Since the whitebark pine species has a range that traverses different federal land designations, we examine whether attitudes towards management strategies differ by jurisdiction (i.e. wilderness...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from http://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/environsci.2015.2.400): State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate...
The North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) funded research activities in order to provide pertinent climate information to natural resource managers in our region to evaluate impacts of climatic changes and to develop strategies to respond to changes affecting their natural and cultural resources. These funded activities provided improved climate data sets, such as the high resolution temperature dataset, derived data from the latest international climate projections. The NC CSC used this information and additional climate information to evaluate and assess impacts on ecosystem and natural resources. This information was generated in partnership with National Park Service managers, Native American leaders,...
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Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged drought, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future. These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water under unpredictable drought conditions, preserving forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions. In light of the wide-ranging potential impacts of climate change in the region, this project sought to help decision-makers...
Projected suitable habitat models were constructed using a set of presence points for the species derived from element occurrence and herbarium records, together with temperature, precipitation, and soil variables. The current distribution used modeled historic period (1970-2000) climate variables from the appropriate matching GCM model run. These model parameters were then used with projected climate data to get future (2020-2050) modeled suitable habitat for each scenario. Modeled past suitable habitat and modeled future suitable habitat are combined to show areas of change, using various thresholds to distinguish change categories, as well as comparison to current mapped habitats from SWReGAP landcover (USGS...
"Motivation": The motivation for this briefing is to examine the large inhomogeneity (step shift) in the observed temperature record at the SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the Intermountain West—Colorado, Utah and Wyoming—and its implications for climate, hydrology and ecological research in the region. This issue impacts the entire SNOTEL network across the 11 Western states, as demonstrated by Jared Oyler of the University of Montana and his colleagues in Oyler et al. (2015). Here we build on that work by performing finer-grained analyses, and identifying the implications for climate studies that have incorporated SNOTEL temperature data. In doing so, we intend to promote a broader awareness of this issue...
This 2-pager describes the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), which is a drought index that can serve as an indicator of both rapidly evolving “flash” droughts (developing over a few weeks) and sustained droughts (developing over months but lasting up to years).
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2692-0/fulltext.html): The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplified warming in high elevation regions during the cold season in boreal midlatitudes. We examine how the twenty-first century elevation-dependent response in the daily minimum surface air temperature [d(ΔTmin)/dz] varies among 27 different GCMs during winter for the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. The focus is on regions within the northern hemisphere mid-latitude band between 27.5°N...
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The purpose of this project was to estimate and map the probability that grassland converts to cropland in the northern plains and prairie region given potential climate change. This region provides critical breeding and migratory habitat for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species, and is also a highly productive agricultural region. Generally, the regional effects projected by climate models are increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation, which could provide incentives for private landowners to convert native and managed grassland to intensive cropland. Conversion of grassland to cropland can result in habitat loss for dependent species and the degradation of a range of ecosystem services. If...
Managing plant and wildlife species under climate change offers a substantial challenge. Federal agencies have adapted a framework for considering climate change when implementing management actions. This project was designed to demonstrate how elements of that framework, climate science, ecological forecasting, and natural resource management, can be linked to best maintain natural resources under climate change. The project focused on the whitebark pine (WBP) tree. This species occupies high mountain forests and uniquely provides foods and habitats for other species. WBP populations have undergone massive die-offs over the past decade due to pest outbreaks associated with climate warming. In the Greater Yellowstone...
map background search result map search result map Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 1 Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 1 Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change