Projected Habitat Suitability Change for Feast/Famine Scenario (2035)
Dates
Publication Date
2018
Citation
Colorado Natural Heritage Program, 20160125, Projected Habitat Suitability Change for Feast/Famine Scenario (2035): Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University.
Summary
Projected suitable habitat models were constructed using a set of presence points for the species derived from element occurrence and herbarium records, together with temperature, precipitation, and soil variables. The current distribution used modeled historic period (1970-2000) climate variables from the appropriate matching GCM model run. These model parameters were then used with projected climate data to get future (2020-2050) modeled suitable habitat for each scenario. Modeled past suitable habitat and modeled future suitable habitat are combined to show areas of change, using various thresholds to distinguish change categories, as well as comparison to current mapped habitats from SWReGAP landcover (USGS 2004) or LANDFIRE existing [...]
Summary
Projected suitable habitat models were constructed using a set of presence points for the species derived from element occurrence and herbarium records, together with temperature, precipitation, and soil variables. The current distribution used modeled historic period (1970-2000) climate variables from the appropriate matching GCM model run. These model parameters were then used with projected climate data to get future (2020-2050) modeled suitable habitat for each scenario. Modeled past suitable habitat and modeled future suitable habitat are combined to show areas of change, using various thresholds to distinguish change categories, as well as comparison to current mapped habitats from SWReGAP landcover (USGS 2004) or LANDFIRE existing vegetation (version 1.3.0).
The change categories are (raster values in parentheses):
(1) Lost = will not remain in place
(2) Threatened = unlikely to remain in place, especially after a disturbance
(3) Persistent = conditions remain within historical range
(4) Emergent = new areas where climate will become suitable
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Purpose
Projected future habitat suitability in Colorado for Pinus edulis, Juniperus osteosperma (JUOS), Artemisia tridentata spp. wyomingensis, and Artemisia tridentata spp. vaseyana, using cesm1-bgc.1.rcp85. This model represents a comparatively moderately hot, with little change in precipitation, but high year-to-year variability future scenario. These models are intended to guide conservation planning efforts for plant life under uncertain future climate conditions. NOTE: Artemisia subspecies can be difficult to separate both in the field and in predicted habitat models and in overlap areas hybridization may occur. As with all models, this data should be used in conjunction with field observations.
