Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Northwest CASC > FY 2014 Projects > Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest ( Show direct descendants )
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ROOT _ScienceBase Catalog __National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers ___Northwest CASC ____FY 2014 Projects _____Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Filters
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Ecological systems are already responding to modern changes in climate. Many species are moving in directions and at rates that correspond with recent climatic change. Understanding how species distributions and abundances are likely to be altered can inform management and planning activities resulting in more robust management decisions. We projected climate-driven changes in the abundances and distributions of 31 focal bird species in Oregon and Washington using the latest downscaled CMIP5 climate projections and corresponding vegetation model outputs. Vegetation models were informed by the results of MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). We mapped these future projections and integrated them here to...
Current (1980-2009) and future (2035-2064) bird abundance estimates from a boosted regression tree (BRT) model for 31 avian species in Oregon and Washington state based on avian point count data and eBird data (www.ebird.org) together with climate covariates, and vegetation covariates driven by MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). Current climate data was based on PRISM (www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). Future climate data was based on downscaled projections (4km) of the GCMUSED global climate model developed by the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) project. This downscaled data is part of the MACAv1-METDATA dataset (maca.northwestknowledge.net/) for the Representative Concentration Pathway...
Categories: Data;
Types: GeoTIFF,
Raster;
Tags: Birds,
Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri),
Brown Creeper (Certhia americana),
Chipping Sparrow (Spizella passerina),
Data Visualization & Tools,
Ecological systems are already responding to modern changes in climate. Many species are moving in directions and at rates that correspond with recent climatic change. Understanding how species distributions and abundances are likely to be altered can inform management and planning activities resulting in more robust management. We projected climate-driven changes in the abundances and distributions of 31 focal bird species in Oregon and Washington using the latest downscaled CMIP5 climate projections and corresponding vegetation model outputs. We mapped these future projections and integrated them into an existing web-based tool (http://data.pointblue.org/apps/nwcsc/) to allow managers and planners to access and...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Cascade Mountains,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Northwest CASC,
Science Tools For Managers,
These maps indicate the magnitude of multivariate climate change using the standardized Euclidean distance (SED). This metric allows the magnitude of climate change to be analyzed with respect to historical interannual variability for each climate variable. Standardizing climate change in this way allows multiple climate variables with different units to be combined into a single index, but more importantly, it places the magnitude of projected change in the perspective of what species have had to tolerate over recent history. These maps are based on multiple climate models ( CanESM2, MIROC5, MIROC_ESM_CHEM, and MRI_CGCM3 climate models ) for the periods 2035-2064 and 2070-2099 and are based on bioclimatic variables...
Categories: Data;
Types: Raster;
Tags: Birds,
CanESM2,
Data Visualization & Tools,
MIROC5,
MIROC_ESM_CHEM,
Terrestrial ecosystems are vulnerable to future changes in the global climate, including increased temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and changes in vegetation. Information on the potential effects of climate change on bird communities can help guide effective conservation and inform land management decisions. We used output from MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and climate models to inform the potential distribution of vegetation types based on hybrid vegetation maps dervied from the GAP vegetation classification system. These hybrid vegetation models were then used to inform bird distribution models0. The data covers three time periods (1970-1999), (2035-2064), and (2070-2099) for 59...
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