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Rates of climate and land use change vary across the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains as do the responses of ecosystems to these changes. Knowledge of locations of rapid land use and climate change and changes in ecosystem services such as water runoff and ecological productivity are important for vulnerability assessment and crafting locally relevant adaptation strategies to cope with these changes. This project assessed the loss of public, private, and tribal lands due to ongoing land use intensifications and fragmentation extents across the NC CSC domain. In addition, the project evaluated how the climate, ecosystem processes, and vegetation have shifted over the past half century and how they are projected to...
Understanding how different crops use water over time is essential for planning and managing water allocation, water rights, and agricultural production. The main objective of this paper is to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of crop water use in the Central Valley of California using Landsat-based annual actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 2008 to 2018 derived from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model. Crop water use for 10 crops is characterized at multiple scales. The Mann–Kendall trend analysis revealed a significant increase in area cultivated with almonds and their water use, with an annual rate of change of 16,327 ha in area and 13,488 ha-m in water use. Conversely, alfalfa...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The north-central region of the U.S. has experienced a series of extreme droughts in recent years, with impacts felt across a range of sectors. For example, the impacts of a 2002 drought are estimated to have resulted in a $3 billion loss to the agricultural sector in Nebraska and South Dakota. Meanwhile, the ecological impacts of drought in the region have included increased tree mortality, surges in the outbreak of pests, and intensifying forest fires. Located within this region is the Missouri River Basin, an important agricultural production area home to approximately 12 million people, including 28 Native American tribes. Tribal governments and multiple federal agencies manage land and natural resources in...
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Water resources are critical for ecosystems, agriculture, and communities, and potential climate impacts to hydrologic budgets and cycles are arguably the most consequential to society. Apart from precipitation, evapotranspiration makes up the most significant component of the hydrologic budget. Evapotranspiration is a primary metric for identifying Ecological Drought, a deficit in water availability that negatively impacts ecosystems and ecosystem services. Through an agreement between the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center Land Cover Monitoring, Assessment and Projection (LCMAP) program and the North Central CASC, Dr. Senay works to integrate and apply remotely sensed data for eco- and...
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The TopoWx ('Topography Weather') dataset contains historical 30-arcsec resolution (~800-m) interpolations of daily minimum and maximum topoclimatic air temperature for the conterminous U.S. Using both DEM-based variables and MODIS land skin temperature as predictors of air temperature, interpolation procedures include moving window regression kriging and geographically weighted regression. To avoid artificial climate trends, all input station data are homogenized using the GHCN/USHCN Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/#phas). The interpolation model is open source and information on obtaining model code can be found at http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/project/TopoWx. The...
The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region plays a very important role in providing water and land resources and other critical ecosystem services to support rural livelihoods. Semi-arid conditions and the tight coupling of livelihood enterprises with ecosystem services increases sensitivity to climate change. The changing climate and social-economic situations across the NGP have further challenged current management practices. Recent climate stresses has indicated that changing seasonality and extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods, ice storms) are impacting ecosystem services and increasing vulnerability to rural livelihoods. In particular, the emergence of rapid on-set of drought has been problematic to resource...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This is a combined shapefile of all Greater Widland Ecosystems. We first created shapefiles for each GWE using hydrological units, contiguous habitat, human influence (25 km buffer) taking into account of federal, private, and tribal lands. We then combined them.
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the National Centre of Meteorological Research (France) model, CNRM-CM5, simulations (r1i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the...
As part of a broader effort to increase the ability of federal agencies to understand and adapt to changes in climate variability and hazard profiles, the Colorado Bureau of Land Management has commissioned an on-going research effort to gather and analyze information on the potential climate-related vulnerabilities of the numerous communities and businesses that rely upon the state’s 8.4 million acres of BLM-managed public lands. This report contains the initial findings of this project, and details work conducted between 2015 and 2017 centered around three main questions: 1. What efforts are currently underway within the Colorado BLM to address changes in climate and the climate vulnerabilities of public land...
Reliable information on water use and availability at basin and field scales are important to ensure the optimized constructive uses of available water resources. This study was conducted with the specific objective to estimate Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model across the state of South Dakota (SD), USA for the 1986–2018 (33-year) period. Validated ETa estimations (r2 = 0.91, PBIAS = −4%, and % RMSE = 11.8%) were further used to understand the crop water-use characteristics and existing historic mono-directional (increasing/decreasing) trends over the eastern (ESD) and western (WSD) regions of SD. The crop water-use characteristics...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Fragmentation extent of six ecosystem types after European Settlement was analyzed using LANDFIRE data. The ecosystem types includes: Grassland, Shrubland, Conifer, Riparian, Hardwood and Sparse ecosystems. The land use change and fragmentation extents have been analyzed by delineating nine Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWEs) across NCCSC.
Abstract from SpringLink: Many western communities are surrounded by public lands that support land-based and local economies. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) decision-making affects the vulnerability of those land-based livelihoods, especially in the context of climate change. We analyzed Colorado BLM planning documents to evaluate how they are considering climate change, sensitive resources, impacts, and land-based livelihoods in their planning processes using both quantitative word counts and qualitative coding. Documents published in recent years (2011–2015) include more mentions of climate change than older documents (1985–1997). However, the review showed that while climate change is discussed within the National...
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (France) model, IPSL-CM5A-MR, simulations (r1i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the historic,...
The evaluation of historical water use in the Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB), United States and Mexico, using Landsat-derived actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 1986 to 2015 is presented here as the first study of its kind to apply satellite observations to quantify long-term, basin-wide crop consumptive use in a large basin. The rich archive of Landsat imagery combined with the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model was used to estimate and map ETa across the basin and over irrigated fields for historical characterization of water-use dynamics. Monthly ETa estimates were evaluated using six eddy-covariance (EC) flux towers showing strong correspondence (r2 > 0.80) with reasonable error rates...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The Capacity Building Project increased the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) constituents’ abilities to gather and use climate data through formation of the Indigenous Phenology Network (IPN), collaboration with AmericaView to join the PhenoCam network, partnership with the National Conservation Training Center (NCTC) to offer free regional climate smarts courses, and mentoring of students.
Terrestrial evapotranspiration is the second-largest component of the land water cycle, linking the water, energy, and carbon cycles and influencing the productivity and health of ecosystems. The dynamics of ET across a spectrum of spatiotemporal scales and their controls remain an active focus of research across different science disciplines. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of ET science across in situ measurements, partitioning of ET, and remote sensing, and discuss how different approaches complement one another based on their advantages and shortcomings. We aim to facilitate collaboration among a cross-disciplinary group of ET scientists to overcome the challenges identified in this paper and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project aimed to improve our understanding of drought in the North Central region and determine what future droughts might look like over the 21st century, as climate conditions change. Researchers evaluated, with the intent to improve, available and emerging data on climate conditions that influence drought (such as changes in temperature, precipitation, evaporative demand, snow and soil moisture), as well as datasets related to the surface...
map background search result map search result map Foundational Science Area: Developing Climate Change Understanding and Resources for Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Helping People and Nature Adapt to Climate Change in the North Central U.S. TopoWx: Topoclimatic Daily Air Temperature Dataset for the Conterminous United States CNRM-CM5: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method IPSL-CM5A-MR: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method Land use change and fragmentation of Bighorn Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Boundary of all Greater Wildland Ecosystems Combined Ecological Drought Across the Country Foundational Science Area: Helping People and Nature Adapt to Climate Change in the North Central U.S. Land use change and fragmentation of Bighorn Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Foundational Science Area: Developing Climate Change Understanding and Resources for Adaptation in the North Central U.S. Boundary of all Greater Wildland Ecosystems Combined CNRM-CM5: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method IPSL-CM5A-MR: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method TopoWx: Topoclimatic Daily Air Temperature Dataset for the Conterminous United States Ecological Drought Across the Country