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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Alaska CASC > FY 2017 Projects ( Show direct descendants )

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These files include historical downscaled estimates of decadal average monthly snow-day fraction ("fs", units = percent probability from 1 – 100) for each month of the decades from 1900-1909 to 2000-2009 at 771 x 771 m spatial resolution. Each file represents a decadal average monthly mean. Version 1.0 was completed in 2015 Version 2.0 was completed in 2018 These snow-day fraction estimates were produced by applying equations relating decadal average monthly temperature to snow-day fraction to downscaled decadal average monthly temperature. Separate equations were used to model the relationship between decadal monthly average temperature and the fraction of wet days with snow for seven geographic regions in the...
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These files include climatological summaries of downscaled historical and projected decadal average monthly snowfall equivalent ("SWE", in millimeters), the ratio of snowfall equivalent to precipitation, and future change in snowfall for October-March at 771-meter spatial resolution across the state of Alaska. **Derived snow variables and summaries. Data are for summary October to March Alaska climatologies for:** 1) historical and future snowfall equivalent ("SWE"), produced by multiplying snow-day fraction by decadal average monthly precipitation and summing over 6 months from October to March to estimate the total SWE on April 1. 2) historical and future ratio of SWE to precipitation ("SFEtoP"), SFEtoP is the...
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In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere...
A mechanism for better communication between scientists and stakeholders is needed to facilitate the successful exchange of scientific information. This project aims to address this need by developing the ScienceTapes project, an initiative to record and archive conversations between research scientists and non-scientists in order to share science stories to build connections between people, science, and the environment to create a greater understanding of change in Alaska’s (and beyond) landscapes.
Tags: Alaska CASC
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These files include downscaled historical decadal average monthly snowfall equivalent ("SWE", in millimeters) for each month at 771 x 771 m spatial resolution. Each file represents a decadal average monthly mean. Historical data for 1910-1919 to 1990-1999 are available for CRU TS3.0-based data and for 1910-1919 to 2000-2009 for CRU TS3.1-based data Snow-fall equivalent estimates were produced by multiplying snow-day fraction ("fs") by decadal average monthly precipitation ("Pr"). (fs*Pr)/100 Snow-day fraction data used can be found here: http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/historical-decadal-averages-of-monthly-snow-day-fraction-771m-cru-ts3-0-3-1 Precipitation data used can be found here: http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/historical-monthly-and-derived-precipitation-products-771m-cr...
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Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees. Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project...
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Alaska has complex topography, with its extensive coastlines, dozens of islands, and mountain ranges that contain the tallest peaks in North America. Topography can have a strong influence on temperature and precipitation, therefore accurate representations of the terrain can improve the quality of simulations of past and future climate conditions. The spatial resolution of globally-available climate data is typically too coarse (~80 to 100 km) to adequately detect local landscape features, meaning these models aren’t useful for predicting future conditions in Alaska. In order for the state to adequately prepare for and adapt to changing conditions, high-resolution climate data is needed. One solution for acquiring...
Abstract (from Forests): Research Highlights: Flammability of wildland fuels is a key factor influencing risk-based decisions related to preparedness, response, and safety in Alaska. However, without effective measures of current and expected flammability, the expected likelihood of active and problematic wildfires in the future is difficult to assess and prepare for. This study evaluates the effectiveness of diverse indices to capture high-risk fires. Indicators of drought and atmospheric drivers are assessed along with the operational Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Background and Objectives: In this study, 13 different indicators of atmospheric conditions, fuel moisture, and flammability are...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from RMetS): Synoptic‐scale patterns associated with daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Alaska are identified and evaluated for daily variability in order to understand consistency in forcing mechanisms associated with extreme events as well as the tendency for each pattern to produce an extreme event. Daily station data at five locations for the 29‐year period from 1982 to 2010 are used. The widely recognized ClimDex indices are used to identify extreme high temperature, low temperature, and single‐day precipitation events. Pressure patterns during extreme events are evaluated seasonally for summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) at mean sea level pressure, 700 and 500‐hPa geopotential heights. Temperature...
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Communities, state and federal agencies, resource managers, and decision makers throughout Alaska need sound scientific information to better understand our changing world to make informed, science-based decisions that will shape the future. Scientists also need information from these stakeholders to understand what science questions need to be answered, develop research priorities, and gain important insight about the landscape based on personal experiences and generational knowledge. However, effective two-way conversations between scientists and stakeholders are often limited, due to resource constraints, a lack of necessary communication skills and tools, and other factors. A mechanism for better communication...
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The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC) has a strong track record of working collaboratively with government entities to co-produce actionable science in areas including: high resolution dynamical and statistical downscaling, process and mechanistic-based ecosystem modeling, and glacier dynamics. The AK CASC is therefore uniquely positioned to facilitate and conduct science that informs specific management decisions within the state. The AK CASC is hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) with consortium partners University of Alaska Anchorage and University of Alaska Southeast. To learn more about Host Agreement Projects and University of Alaska - Fairbanks projects, visit: https://akcasc.org/about-us/projects-overview/...
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In Alaska, extreme climate events such as very warm days, very cold days, and intense storms can have a range of impacts, from damaging infrastructure to disrupting the tourism economy. For example, in 2013, a colder than normal spring led to late ice break-up and rapid thaw, causing massive flooding along the Yukon River that displaced roughly 500 residents in a single town. Meanwhile, in Denali, cold May temperatures delayed openings for some tourist-related businesses. Previous work has identified which atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with extreme events, information which can help refine forecasts and downscale future climate projections. The goal of this project is to test whether these patterns...
map background search result map search result map Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Bringing Scientists and Stakeholders Together through ScienceTapes (Alaska Voices) Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (2017-2021) Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Bringing Scientists and Stakeholders Together through ScienceTapes (Alaska Voices) Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (2017-2021)