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Summer precipitation in Hawai'i accounts for 40% of the annual total and provides important water sources. However, our knowledge about its variability remains limited. Here we show that statewide Hawai'i summer rainfall (HSR) variability exhibits two distinct regimes: quasi‐biennial (QB, ~2 years) and interdecadal (~30–40 years). The QB variation is linked to alternating occurrences of the Western North Pacific (WNP) cyclone and anticyclone in successive years, which is modulated by the intrinsic El Niño–Southern Oscillation biennial variability and involves a positive feedback between atmospheric Rossby waves and underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The interdecadal variation of HSR is largely modulated...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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With an average elevation of just seven feet above sea level, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is acutely vulnerable to inundation from both episodic events such as storm surge and chronic conditions such as sea-level rise. Some projections estimate that future sea-level rise could exceed the average elevation of these islands by 2100. Already, residents are facing extreme high tides and 16 foot swells that flood the islands with saltwater, damaging homes and infrastructure and contaminating the freshwater supply. Land elevation is the primary factor that determines the vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation. This project builds on previous work in which a 1-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM)...
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This dataset provides seasonal means of 7 WRF variables for the Hawaiian Islands region including: rainfall (PR), 2m temperatures (TAS), 90th percentile daily rainfall extremes (PR90), 99th percentile daily rainfall extremes (PR99), 90th percentile daily temperature extremes (TAS90), 99th percentile daily temperature extremes (TAS99), and the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC) The files are organized and labeled by simulation period (present-day:1996-2005 and future: 2026-2035), season (wet or dry), and PDO phase (positive or negative). For a full description of the WRF model and simulations, please refer to related publication. ​Data are also available from a federal repository upon request....
Natural climate variability poses a limit to the confidence in regional climate projections, particularly for the near-term. Therefore, the next decades are of importance for regional impact studies and the development of regional adaptation plans. This article presents results from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations (years 1996–2005 and 2026–2035) that are used to examine the effects of both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on near-term climate projections for the Hawaiian Islands. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) is used in conjunction with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for downscaling....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Majuro Atoll in the central Pacific has high coastal vulnerability due to low-lying islands, rising sea level, high wave events, eroding shorelines, a dense population center, and limited freshwater resources. Land elevation is the primary geophysical variable that determines exposure to inundation in coastal settings. Accordingly, coastal elevation data (with accuracy information) are critical for assessments of inundation exposure. Previous research has demonstrated the importance of using high-accuracy elevation data and rigorously accounting for uncertainty in inundation assessments. A quantitative analysis of inundation exposure was conducted for Majuro Atoll, including accounting for the cumulative vertical...
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Land, water, and natural resource managers and planners across Hawai’i are tasked with making important decisions about the state’s future. Reliable projections of Hawaiʻi's climate are needed to inform these decisions. This project aims to provide this needed scientific information to resource managers by improving estimates of Hawaiʻi’s near-term climate for the coming years and decades. The goal of this project is to develop very high-resolution climate projections for the Hawaiian Islands over the period from 2010 to 2039. This timeframe is novel. Most climate projections for Hawai’i are for the end of the century. In contrast, the timeframe of this study is “now”, which has intuitive relevance to resource...
Near-term climate change scenarios are increasingly important for strategic management, planning and decision-making processes. Regional climate change research projects have, until recently, focused almost exclusively on the long-term aspects of climate change by targeting the mid- and late-21st-century scenarios. However, stakeholders dealing with climate change related decision processes often require additional information on the developments in the coming two or three decades. The goal of this research project was to improve the scientific understanding of the range of near-term climate change trajectories and to develop near-term climate scenarios for the main Hawaiian Islands. Estimating human-induced (anthropogenic)...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This dataset provides daily WRF output for the Hawaiian Islands region for the following variables: daily rainfall (RAINNC), daily 2m temperature (TMEAN), max 2m temperature (TMAX), and min 2m temperature (TMIN) These quantities are provided for 20 WRF simulations over the time periods (1996-2005) and (2026-2035). Files are labeled based on the WRF simulation and year. (WRF 1-5 and 11-15: negative PDO phase, WRF 6-10 and 16-20: positive PDO phase). ​Data are also available from a federal repository upon request. Contact: casc@usgs.gov.
    map background search result map search result map Near-term Climate Projections to Inform Adaptation in the Hawaiian Islands Approved DataSets Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Seasonal WRF Output (PI-CASC) Daily WRF output (PI-CASC) Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Near-term Climate Projections to Inform Adaptation in the Hawaiian Islands Seasonal WRF Output (PI-CASC) Daily WRF output (PI-CASC)