Other (Approved for Public)

Approved DataSets

False springs and spring phenology: Propagating effects of downscaling technique and training data

Projected changes to spring phenological indicators (such as first leaf and first bloom) are of importance to assessing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species. The risk of false springs (when a killing freeze occurs after plants of interest bloom), which can cause ecological and economic damage, is also projected to change across much of the United States. Given the coarse nature of global climate models, downscaled climate projections have commonly been used to assess local changes in spring phenological indices. Few studies that examine the influence of the sources of uncertainty sources in the downscaling approach on projections of phenological changes. This study examines the influence of sources...

Categories: Publication; Types: Citation

Approved Products

Final Report: Assessing Future Changes to Spring Phenology and False Springs in the South Central United States

The timing of first leaf and first bloom is a critical indicator of spring phenology and false springs have known harmful impacts to ecosystems and agriculture in the United States. The timing of first leaf and first bloom is critically important for migratory species along their migratory paths. As the climate changes, the mismatch between the first leaf and first bloom and the arrival or emergence of species (called phenological mismatch) is a potential danger for the survival of multiple species under climate change. This project produced projections of first leaf, first bloom, and the risk of false springs for the South Central CASC region. Findings from this study suggest that first leaf and first bloom will...

Categories: Publication; Types: Citation