Distinguishing Variability Regimes of Hawaiian Summer Rainfall: Quasi‐Biennial and Interdecadal Oscillations

Summer precipitation in Hawai'i accounts for 40% of the annual total and provides important water sources. However, our knowledge about its variability remains limited. Here we show that statewide Hawai'i summer rainfall (HSR) variability exhibits two distinct regimes: quasi‐biennial (QB, ~2 years) and interdecadal (~30–40 years). The QB variation is linked to alternating occurrences of the Western North Pacific (WNP) cyclone and anticyclone in successive years, which is modulated by the intrinsic El Niño–Southern Oscillation biennial variability and involves a positive feedback between atmospheric Rossby waves and underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The interdecadal variation of HSR is largely modulated...

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Dynamical Downscaling of Near-Term (2026–2035) Climate Variability and Change for the Main Hawaiian Islands

Natural climate variability poses a limit to the confidence in regional climate projections, particularly for the near-term. Therefore, the next decades are of importance for regional impact studies and the development of regional adaptation plans. This article presents results from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations (years 1996–2005 and 2026–2035) that are used to examine the effects of both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on near-term climate projections for the Hawaiian Islands. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) is used in conjunction with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for downscaling....

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Final Report: Near-term Climate Projections to Inform Adaptation in the Hawaiian Islands

Near-term climate change scenarios are increasingly important for strategic management, planning and decision-making processes. Regional climate change research projects have, until recently, focused almost exclusively on the long-term aspects of climate change by targeting the mid- and late-21st-century scenarios. However, stakeholders dealing with climate change related decision processes often require additional information on the developments in the coming two or three decades. The goal of this research project was to improve the scientific understanding of the range of near-term climate change trajectories and to develop near-term climate scenarios for the main Hawaiian Islands. Estimating human-induced (anthropogenic)...

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