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Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion, and water quality issues. These events can be costly for society. In response, many land managers are using forest thinning and prescribed burning practices to reduce disturbance impacts, especially those that are caused by high-severity wildfire. In contrast to the wealth of research on the advantages of forest thinning...
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Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that forecast droughts up to 18 months in advance with information about their expected timing and intensity. Developed for all climate divisions in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, these drought models rely on input from predictor variables associated with global weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña. However, it is unclear...
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has several Communities of Practice (CoPs) focused on resource manager needs across the region (e.g. understanding at-risk species and ecosystems, building resilient coastal ecosystems, extreme weather and climate change, etc.). Each CoP has expertise in the subject matter and has been working on projects that are relevant to the resource community, including conducting literature reviews and small-scale pilot projects. The current research project will leverage the expertise of the existing CoPs to enhance the content available through the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) as identified through the partnership between the South Central...
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Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are expected to continue or even accelerate, it is important to evaluate megafire risks and locate high-risk areas. This project will develop a new Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) and make future projections of megafire probability in Oklahoma and Texas from 2024 to 2100. Outcomes and products from this project will...
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Coastal wetland loss is a serious concern along the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially in Texas and Louisiana where rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise are among the highest in the world, extreme storms are becoming more frequent, and flooding events are intensifying. Because coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of Mexico provide numerous ecosystem services, including providing critical habitat for species of concern such as the whooping crane and the mottled duck, federal, state, and local agencies have made significant efforts to restore habitats to increase their resilience to sea-level rise and extreme storm events. One way to help wetlands adapt to sea-level rise and extreme flooding events...
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The Gulf of Mexico coast of Louisiana and Texas faces threats from increasingly destructive extreme weather, heat, subsidence, and coastal erosion. Inland areas also face stronger storms, floods, and shifts in land development patterns. Increasing drought and extreme heat in Texas and New Mexico also exacerbate fires and floods. All of these regions are culturally rich, rapidly changing areas where people are working across political boundaries and organizations to protect and adapt people’s lifeways, sites and artifacts, and culturally important species, places and landscapes. This project will produce an action plan that describes ongoing efforts and identifies gaps in research and funding for cultural preservation...
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Stretching almost 1,900 miles from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico, the Rio Grande/Río Bravo Basin (RGB) supplies drinking water for more than 6 million people and irrigation for about 2 million acres of land. The river also supports habitat for many at-risk and endangered species. Because of its size and diverse ecosystem services, the RGB faces complex shared-management challenges that will require coordination among many players. This project will provide opportunities for water managers and users across the basin to collaborate to prevent future conflicts and foster innovative water management in the face of a changing climate. The project leaders will design and convene one tribal RGB forum and will design...
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Climate projections for the South-Central U.S. indicate increases of 2-5°F in average high temperatures by mid-century, declines of up to 4% in average precipitation, and increases in heatwaves and large rainfall events. This changing, more unpredictable climate makes it difficult to decide which species to plant when, or to know when certain species will bloom and go to seed. A refuge manager might ask: what species should be included in restoration plantings to ensure pollinators will have nectar ten years from now? Or a tribal member might wonder: when is the most effective time to visit prairie remnants to collect culturally significant plant seeds to grow for a restoration project? The Time to Restore project...
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Small creeks and streams often dry out during the summer but still support many insects, fish, crayfish, and plants. Though intermittent streams are the most common type of flowing water across the globe, not much is known about which, how, why, or when streams dry or about how patterns of drying affect species in these habitats. More information about patterns of stream drying can help inform the management of intermittent streams. This project will use sensors to track the presence and absence of water in streams across Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. This will allow for an estimate of different drying patterns, and what (for example, stream size, land use, rainfall, or soil type) influences each pattern....
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To support cultural resources and better understand the regional implications of climate change, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has found it critical to be directly engaged in research activities with the Federally recognized Tribes across the South Central United States. The South Central CASC Tribal Sustainability Science Manager will engage in scientific research that addresses Tribal needs for adaptive management and sustainability in the South-Central U.S. through an a extended network of connections to Tribal governments. This work is key to enhancing the Trust relationship of the Tribes with the Department of the Interior. This project will provide supplemental support for the...
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Many inland bodies of water in western Louisiana are receiving too much sediment and nutrient pollution from upstream which has caused declines in the health of many fisheries. These bodies of water include many traditional lake-based fisheries of the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana (CTL), and fisheries used by visitors, providing critical tourism and economic development dollars to the region. The goal of the Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) is to study the long-term health and ecology of fisheries and water bodies in west-central Louisiana. This project will be a collaboration between leaders and scientists from the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, Louisiana State University and Florida State University...
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The south-central U.S. has a unique and complex topography that results in a strong precipitation gradient from the arid west to the humid east. Stakeholders and partners of the South Central CASC require climate projections about how these conditions may change to provide critical information for impact assessments and climate adaptation planning efforts related to their unique needs. For example, stakeholders and partners of the South Central CASC have identified a critical need for guidance about future water scarcity and wildfire frequency. While the South Central CASC has already produced climate projections for this region, a new generation of climate models that represent an updated scientific understanding...
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The Bonnet Carré spillway (BCS) is a flood-control structure along the Lower Mississippi River designed to prevent flooding in the city of New Orleans by diverting excess water into the nearby Lake Pontchartrain estuary. Alarmingly, the BCS was opened as many times over the past decade (2011–2020) as it had been over the six prior decades combined (1951–2010), with devastating effects on the estuary’s valuable fisheries. Because the BCS was rarely used in the past, there is little science-based guidance for state agencies to consult when trying to manage these events. In light of the unprecedented increase in BCS operation, this project will conduct research to understand (1) how opening the BCS affects Lake Pontchartrain...
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Climate change threatens to damage historical sites and disrupt cultural practices in communities around the world, including the South-Central United States. Researchers are now paying greater attention to the impact of climate change on these cultural resources, but currently little guidance exists for decision makers who are interested in protecting them. Because communities value and interact with cultural resources in different ways, effectively planning for their protection requires broad public participation. In the planning phase, this project will focus on (1) building relationships with researchers and professionals working to protect cultural resources, (2) identifying and engaging with tribal and marginalized...
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Large, hot, fast-moving wildfires are an increasing threat to communities and to the watersheds they rely upon. Forest managers work to reduce the risk from these fires using forest thinning and prescribed burning to reduce the amount of fuel in the forest. However, these activities are expensive, and it can be challenging to identify which acres of forest should be targeted with thinning and burning treatments. The goal of this research is to improve an existing modeling tool that helps forest managers find the ‘right acres’ to target with treatments to help to reduce wildfire risk. Focusing on the Santa Fe Fireshed, researchers will first use different numbers of forest inventory plots to estimate how the forest...
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The United States National Park Service (NPS) declared climate change as “the greatest threat to the integrity of our national parks that we have ever experienced.” Climate change is causing not only higher average temperatures in most places but also increasing the severity of storms, the number of heatwaves and wildfires, and causing heavier rainfall. These extreme weather conditions pose major threats to National Parks, which face the loss of wildlife, plants, and important historical and cultural sites. To prevent further loss of our country’s natural and cultural heritage in the next 20 years, plans, strategies, and actions are needed now, rather than for 50-100 years into the future. This research team will...
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Federal and state agencies gather information; work with partners, stakeholders, and others; and then write planning documents that guide their natural and cultural resource management. To be useful, these planning documents must reflect current and anticipated conditions, and therefore must include information about climate change. However, there has been little research about what climate information is actually included in federal and state natural and cultural resource plans, or the challenges planners face in incorporating different types of climate information in these plans. Sources of climate information can be grouped into two major categories: scientific information and Indigenous traditional ecological...


    map background search result map search result map The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Incorporation of Scientific Information and Indigenous Traditional Ecological Knowledges into Natural and Cultural Resource Plans: Status and Challenges Intermittent Stream Risk Assessment: Mapping Patterns of Stream Drying and Identifying Vulnerabilities of Stream Fish and Crayfish Communities to Drying Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) Using Archaeological and Ecological Perspectives Informing Forest Treatment Placement to Mitigate High-Severity Wildfire Risk Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Time to Restore: Developing Tools for Climate-Smart Restoration An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding A Fresh Set of Tools: New Information for Managing Fisheries During Changes in River Discharge Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Integrating Cultural Resources into Adaptation Planning in Tribal and Marginalized Communities Planning Grant: Understanding the Impacts of Extreme Events on Our National Parks: Past, Present, and Future Creating the Next Generation of Climate Projections for the South-Central United States Developing a Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin International Research Conference Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Informing Forest Treatment Placement to Mitigate High-Severity Wildfire Risk Coastal Indigenous Fisheries Assessment (CIFA) Using Archaeological and Ecological Perspectives Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material A Fresh Set of Tools: New Information for Managing Fisheries During Changes in River Discharge Incorporation of Scientific Information and Indigenous Traditional Ecological Knowledges into Natural and Cultural Resource Plans: Status and Challenges Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Integrating Cultural Resources into Adaptation Planning in Tribal and Marginalized Communities Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Intermittent Stream Risk Assessment: Mapping Patterns of Stream Drying and Identifying Vulnerabilities of Stream Fish and Crayfish Communities to Drying An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States Supporting Cultural Resources Affected by Climate Change in the South-Central United States Time to Restore: Developing Tools for Climate-Smart Restoration Planning Grant: Understanding the Impacts of Extreme Events on Our National Parks: Past, Present, and Future Creating the Next Generation of Climate Projections for the South-Central United States Developing a Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin International Research Conference