This project evaluates the effects of global climate change and sea level rise on estuarine intertidal habitat in the San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Flyway migratory waterbirds that rely on this habitat. Phase 2 of this project is a continuation of work to evaluate the effects of global climate change and sea level rise (SLR) on intertidal shoals in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and the migratory waterbirds that rely on this critically important resource in the Pacific Flyway. The primary objectives are to: 1) use downscaled global climate change models to translate SLR and climate scenarios into habitat quantity predictions through Delft3D and Dflow-FM (unstructured grid) geomorphic modeling; 2) model the response of avian prey (i.e. benthic invertebrates) to intertidal flat geomorphology and area changes; 3) model shorebird and waterfowl response to geomorphic and invertebrate change; and 4) integrate predictive changes in habitat quantity and prey abundance to generate spatially-explicit assessments of avian response to changes expected from climate change and SLR. The study answers the management question, “How will climate change and SLR affect the intertidal shoal habitats critical for the health of migratory birds in coastal estuaries?” This project provides the first data addressing this pivotal question and would inform conservation and restoration of migratory bird habitat, including the on-going South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project.
