Abstract (from Agricultural and Forest Entomology): Climate change is facilitating a novel range expansion of southern pine beetle (SPB) into globally rare north-eastern pitch pine barrens. By assessing stand conditions present in SPB-infested and uninfested pitch pine stands on Long Island, NY, USA, we developed a regionally-calibrated hazard rating model that predicts stand-level SPB susceptibility. The model indicates that a stand's SPB susceptibility increases with (1) increasing pitch pine basal area, (2) increasing instances of previous year SPB spots nearby, and (3) sandy soil texture. The model informs adaptation strategies to a novel pest dynamic by supporting the identification and prioritization of high hazard stands for [...]
