Species Distribution Modeling of Invasive, Fire Promoting Grasses, Across the Hawaiian Islands in Both 2023 and Under a Future Scenario of Unmitigated Climate Change in 2100

Publication Date

2023-11-30

Time Period

2023

Time Period

2100

Brock, K., 2023, Species Distribution Modeling of Invasive, Fire Promoting Grasses, Across the Hawaiian Islands in Both 2023 and Under a Future Scenario of Unmitigated Climate Change in 2100: National Climate Adaptation Science Centers, https://doi.org/10.21429/m3zw-ew45.

Type: Web Link

Non-native grass invasions play a major role in promoting life-threatening wildfires and driving the transformation of woody ecosystems into highly flammable grasslands. Climate change will likely alter the distribution of many invasive species, possibly increasing the geographic extent of harmful impacts. Furthermore, multiple invasive grass species with variable climate preferences are often present, each of which was introduced at a different time and has different anthropogenic factors affecting its rate of spread. Thus, each species lies somewhere between being an incipient invader, whose populations may be eradicable or containable to a certain geographic area, or a well-established invader, where indefinite control is required to mitigate impacts. In Hawaii, however, even well-established invaders have likely not spread to all suitable habitats. This complexity poses a challenge to managers, who must decide whether to invest resources in incipient taxa, where prevention is possible but impacts are uncertain, or established species, where control needs are infinite, but the risk of doing nothing is better understood. In this product, we identify 6 well-established and 6 incipient flammable invasive grasses and model their potential ranges using species distribution modeling at current and future climates. These data may be used to help prioritize which flammable grasses should be controlled based on their predicted ability to grow at various localities around the Hawaiian islands.

ScienceBase WMS

ScienceBase WCS

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• Pacific Islands CASC

Data source

Input directly