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Mountain ecosystems are at risk from climate change and may be experiencing accelerated warming relative to lower environments. Understanding climatic and ecosystem processes at meso-, topo-, and micro-scales is limited, and constrains our ability to accurately evaluate vulnerability, and assess responses under future climates. Of special interest for climate studies are upper subalpine forests, the alpine treeline ecotone, and the alpine zones. We will use case-study ecosystems to address climatic processes and ecological responses at topo- and micro-scales, including: 1) treeline ecotone and role of phenotypic plasticity in Pinus albicaulis, 2) rocky ecosystems and Ochotona princeps, 3) demography of subalpine...
The Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program (NNCAP) was founded in 2015 with the mission to build capacity to work collaboratively with Native American tribes and indigenous populations in the western United States and Mexico. NNCAP received funds from the DOI Southwest Climate Science Center to carry out a “Tribal Adaptation Initiative.” One of the objectives of this initiativ ewas to conduct a preliminary assessment of tribal interest and capacity for adaptation across the Southwest. Twenty-six Native Nations participated in the NNCAP tribal climate change assessment and reported a wide array of involvement in climate change initiatives. This report highlights various strengths and capacity needs for climate...
The objective of our work is to develop a general and transferrable approach to defining how any given hydrologic system will filter climatic forcings. We will develop a framework that can allow for rapid assessment of the vulnerability of hydrologic systems to predicted climate changes of varying complexity, often without the need for site-specific hydrologic models. Our approach will guide site-specific modeling, where appropriate, to focus on those components of predicted climate change that are most likely to persist through the groundwater system. We are focusing on the role of the unsaturated zone in the filtering of climatic forcings. More specifically, we are examining how variations in infiltration are...
Abstract: The recognition of climate change issues facing tribal communities and indigenous peoples in the United States is growing, and understanding its impacts is rooted in indigenous ethical perspectives and systems of ecological knowledge. This foundation presents a context and guide for contemporary indigenous approaches to address climate change impacts that are comprehensive and holistic. Tribal communities and indigenous peoples across the United States are reenvisioning the role of science in the Anthropocene; working to strengthen government-to-government relationships in climate change initiatives; and leading climate change research, mitigation and adaptation plans through indigenous ingenuity. Unique...
Abstract (from Springer): Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability...
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Estuaries are located at the interface where rivers meet the sea, creating unique ecosystems with complex physical and biological processes. Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services to people, including flood protection from high tides and storm surges, commercial fisheries, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and wildlife food and habitat. Coastal wetlands are also home to hundreds of migratory and resident wildlife species including threatened and endangered species of management concern. Wetlands also have the unique ability to increase their elevation relative to sea-level rise, therefore protecting nearby communities from flooding. In California, prolonged drought and extreme storm events...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714002882): With ongoing global change, there is an urgent need to expand existing networks of important conservation areas around the world. In the western United States, vast areas of public land, including those administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), present substantial conservation opportunities. For 11 contiguous western states, we used a novel multiple-criteria analysis to model and map contiguous areas of roadless BLM land that possessed important ecological indicators of high biodiversity, resilience to climate change, and landscape connectivity. Specifically, we leveraged available spatial datasets to implement a systematic...
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Native Americans are one of the most vulnerable populations to climate change in the United States because of their reliance upon the natural environment for food, livelihood, and cultural traditions. In the Southwest, where the temperature and precipitation changes from climate change are expected to be particularly severe, tribal communities may be especially vulnerable. Through this project, researchers sought to better understand the climate change threats facing the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe of northwestern Nevada. Researchers found that the Tribe’s vulnerability to climate change stems from its dependence on Pyramid Lake, which may experience reduced water supply in the future. This will potentially have negative...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, Federal, Fish, All tags...
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Biodiversity is declining worldwide, and this trend could potentially become more severe as climate conditions change. An integral component of proactive adaptive management planning requires forecasts of how changes in climate will affect individual species. This need has been identified my multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Forest Service. The goal of this project was to assist land and wildlife managers in anticipating which species are most vulnerable to changes in climate in the Southwest, and how resources can best be invested to facilitate adaptation. Researchers evaluated the current and future breeding ranges...
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12237-017-0224-3): Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise depends on marsh plain elevation, tidal range, subsurface processes, as well as surface accretion, of which suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) is a critical component. However, spatial and temporal patterns of inorganic sedimentation are poorly quantified within and across Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed)-dominated marshes. We compared vertical accretion rates and re-examined previously published suspended-sediment patterns during dry-weather periods at Seal Beach Wetlands, which is characterized by a mix of Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) and pickleweed, and for Mugu Lagoon, where cordgrass is rare....
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00050.1): Coproduction of knowledge is believed to be an effective way to produce usable climate science knowledge through a process of collaboration between scientists and decision makers. While the general principles of coproduction—establishing long-term relationships between scientists and stakeholders, ensuring two-way communication between both groups, and keeping the focus on the production of usable science—are well understood, the mechanisms for achieving those goals have been discussed less. It is proposed here that a more deliberate approach to building the relationships and communication channels between scientists and stakeholders...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2517-1): Daily precipitation variability as observed from weather stations is heavy tailed at most locations around the world. It is thought that diversity in precipitation-causing weather events is fundamental in producing heavy-tailed distributions, and it arises from theory that at least one of the precipitation types contributing to a heavy-tailed climatological record must also be heavy-tailed. Precipitation is a multi-scale phenomenon with a rich spatial structure and short decorrelation length and timescales; the spatiotemporal scale at which precipitation is observed is thus an important factor when considering its statistics and extremes....
The University of Arizona Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program (NNCAP) and Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions (CCASS) hosted the NNCAP Tribal Leaders Summit on Climate Change: A Focus on Climate Adaptation Planning and Implementation at the University of Arizona in Tucson, Arizona on November 12 and 13, 2015. The summit was sponsored by the Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative, the Agnese Nelms Haury Program in Environment and Social Justice, the Southwest Climate Science Center, and the UA Institute of the Environment (see Appendix D). The primary objective of the Tribal Summit was to convene tribal environmental managers and leaders who have approved climate adaptation plans to share...
Abstract (from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880717300924): Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature...
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The impacts of climate change are already being observed and felt in our ecosystems and communities. Land and resource managers, planners, and decision-makers are looking for the best scientific information to guide their decisions about adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change now and in the future. To address this need, a primary goal of the Southwest Climate Science Center is to develop actionable science – scientific information that can be easily used to inform these decisions. Evidence shows that more collaborative forms of knowledge development and exchange between scientists and decision makers tend to produce information that is considered more trusted and usable, and lead to higher-quality...
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The Mediterranean ecosystems of southern California are some of the most ecologically diverse systems in the world. The diversity of plants and animals, as well as high rates of endemism, make the area a biodiversity hotspot. High diversity in plant and animal species contributes greatly to the health and productivity of ecosystems, and plays an important role in the local and state economy (e.g. tourism, food crops, etc.). San Diego County's complex topography, highly variable precipitation and climate play a large role in determining the biology of the region. Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns due to climate change would alter the region's climate and add to other stressors such as habitat fragmentation...
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Few evaluations of actual collaborative science or co-production processes have been undertaken that can point to specific outcomes for either resource management or science decisions. Project researchers will assess a sample of collaborative Southwest Climate Science Center (SW CSC) funded research projects in order to evaluate the approaches used by SW CSC investigators to collaborate with agency managers and stakeholders; assess the management outcomes of these collaborative processes; develop a tentative set of metrics to measure the effect of these collaborations on management outcomes and the research process; and distill a set of best practices that improve both management and collaborative research process-related...
This project is working closely with web developers (California Climate Commons, http://climate.calcommons.org; and the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative) to provide user-friendly tools and guidance from site to regional scales with direct feedback from natural resource managers for utility, understandability, relevance, and accessibility. Ongoing projects and relationships across multiple disciplines, organizations, and applications provide this forum. An important aspect of the project was to build capacity of the Commons and engage a larger management community in issues associated with water availability/water supply analysis.
This paper is a product from the SW CSC FY 11 project, "Climate change impacts in the Southwest: An assessment of next generation climate models for making projections and derivations". Abstract: Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections...
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In the southwestern United States, droughts of 10 or more years are projected to become more frequent by 2100. It also is projected that there will be fewer wet days per year, with more precipitation falling on those wet days. Such climatic extremes can strongly affect wild animals and plants, ecosystems, and humans. In the Southwest, more frequent and intense storms may negatively affect protected species in coastal salt marshes; changes in the timing and amount of precipitation could lead to increases in fuel loads; and increasingly humid heat waves could lead to higher incidence of heat-related illness among visitors to national parks. This project will improve understanding of climate extremes and their potential...
map background search result map search result map Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest Climate Change Vulnerability of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe in the Southwest Evaluating the Impact of Climate Science Produced by the Southwest CSC on Resource Management Agency Decisions Improving Understanding of Climate Extremes in the Southwestern United States Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Evaluating Current Projects to Inform Future Development of Actionable Science in the Southwest Climate Change Vulnerability of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe in the Southwest Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Improving Understanding of Climate Extremes in the Southwestern United States Evaluating Current Projects to Inform Future Development of Actionable Science in the Southwest Evaluating the Impact of Climate Science Produced by the Southwest CSC on Resource Management Agency Decisions Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest