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Multi-Decadal Simulation of Marsh Topography Under Sea Level Rise and Episodic Sediment Loads Abstract Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service Elevation Survey Across Southwest Florida Coastal Wetlands, 2021 Accurate elevation data in coastal wetlands is crucial for planning for sea-level rise. Elevation surveys were conducted across southwest Florida wetlands to provide ground validation of LiDAR as well as target long-term monitoring stations (surface elevation tables). Surveys were conducted in June 2021 across Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge, Clam Bay, Rookery Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, and Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge. A combination of post-processed kinematic GPS and differential levelling survey techniques were employed, depending on the canopy cover. Categories: Data; Tags: Clam Bay, Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, GPS measurement, RTK GPS, All tags... Rookery Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, Structural Geology, Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), differential leveling, elevation, elevation surveys, field methods, land surveying, Fewer tags Final Report: Science to Inform the Management of Mangrove Ecosystems Undergoing Sea Level Rise at Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge, Sanibel Island, Florida J.N. “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge (DDNWR) is located on Sanibel Island along the southwestern coast of Florida, USA. Sanibel Island is heavily developed, but DDNWR provides protection for a large mangrove area that supports biodiversity and recreational opportunity. However, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) eutrophication attributed to agriculture discharge along the Caloosahatchee River has affected the area’s aquatic habitat with algal blooms and may be causing untimely degradation of Sanibel’s mangrove forests. We launched a series of studies to understand how additional nutrient loading to the levels expected in the future might affect DDNWR’s mangrove resource. We experimentally fertilized selected... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Chapter 12: Bird communities: effects of fragmentation, disturbance, and sea level rise on population viability [Excerpt from Introduction] "The San Francisco Bay Estuary supports a large and diverse bird community. More than 50% of most Pacific flyway diving duck populations are found in the Estuary during the winter months (Trost 2002; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2002). San Francisco Bay has been designated as a site of international importance for shorebirds (Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network), supporting millions of individuals (Morrison et al. 2001; Takekawa et al. 2001; Warnock et al. 2002), including species that use tidal marsh habitats. In total, the Bay’s tidal marshes support at least 113 bird species that represent 31 families (Takekawa et al., in press)..." Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Habitat Fragmentation, Human Disturbance, National CASC, Population Viability, Restoration Implications, All tags... Science Tools For Managers, Sea Level Rise, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, State of the Science, Synthesis and Future Directions, Tidal Marsh Bird Community, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Fewer tags The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves provide an effective first line of defense against coastal hazards and represent a promising nature-based solution to adapt to sea-level rise. In many areas, coral reefs cause waves to break and lose energy, allowing for sediment to accumulate on the inshore portion of reef flats (i.e. the shallowest, flattest part of a reef) and mangroves to establish. Mangroves cause further attenuation (i.e. energy loss) waves and storm surge as water moves through roots and trunks of the trees. Together, these ecosystems provide valuable protection from coastal flooding, but is unclear how this protection may be affected by sea-level rise. An assessment of future sea-level rise vulnerability... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2020, CASC, Coral Reefs, Coral Reefs, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Data Visualization & Tools, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Pacific Islands, Pacific Islands, Pacific Islands CASC, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Wetlands, Fewer tags LEAN-corrected San Francisco Bay Digital Elevation Model, 2018 Lidar-derived digital elevation models often contain a vertical bias due to vegetation. In areas with tidal influence the amount of bias can be ecologically significant, for example, by decreasing the expected inundation frequency. We generated a corrected digital elevation mode (DEM) for tidal marsh areas around San Francisco Bay using the Lidar Elevation Adjustment with NDVI (LEAN) technique (Buffington et al. 2016). Survey-grade GPS survey data (6614 points), NAIP-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and original 1 m lidar DEM from 2010 were used to generate a model of predicted bias across tidal marsh areas. The predicted bias was then subtracted from the original lidar DEM and merged with the NOAA... Categories: Data; Types: ArcGIS REST Map Service, ArcGIS Service Definition, Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: Remote Sensing, San Francisco Bay, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), biota, digital elevation models, All tags... estuary, lidar, wetlands, Fewer tags Elevation and Mangrove Cover Projections under Sea-Level Rise Scenarios at J.N. Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge, Sanibel Island, Florida, 2020-2100 Elevation projections from the WARMER-Mangroves model for J N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge across a range of sea-level rise scenarios (53, 115, and 183 cm by 2100). The model was calibrated using dated soil cores sampled from the basin hydrologic zone. These data support the following publication: Buffington, K.J., Thorne, K.M., Krauss, K.W., Conrad, J.K., Drexler, J.Z., and Zhu, Z., in-review. Vulnerability of Sanibel Island’s mangrove resources to sea-level rise (Florida, USA). Categories: Data; Tags: Aquatic Biology, Ecology, Florida, Remote Sensing, Southern Florida, All tags... USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), effects of climate change, elevation, modeling, sea-level change, Fewer tags LEAN-Corrected DEM for Suisun Marsh Lidar-derived digital elevation models often contain a vertical bias due to vegetation. In areas with tidal influence the amount of bias can be ecologically significant, for example, by decreasing the expected inundation frequency. We generated a corrected digital elevation mode (DEM) for Suisun marsh using a modification of the Lidar Elevation Adjustment with NDVI (LEAN) technique (Buffington et al. 2016). GPS survey data (6912 points, collected across public and private land in 2018), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from an airborne multispectral image (June 2018), a 1 m lidar DEM from September 2018, and a 1 m canopy surface model were used to generate models of predicted bias across the... Categories: Data, Data Release - Revised; Types: ArcGIS REST Map Service, ArcGIS Service Definition, Downloadable, Map Service; Tags: Remote Sensing, San Francisco Bay Estuary, Suisun marsh, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), digital elevation models, All tags... elevation, estuary, lidar, wetlands, Fewer tags WARMER-2 Model Inputs and Projections for Three Tidal Wetland Sites Across San Francisco Bay Estuary Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework... Tags: Botany, Brackish Marsh, Browns Island, Emergent Tidal Marsh, Emergent Wetland, All tags... Environmental Health, Petaluma marsh, Remote Sensing, Rush Ranch, San Francisco Bay Estuary, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), biota, climate change, digital elevation model, lidar, numerical modeling, sea-level change, wetland, Fewer tags Digital elevation model outputs from wetland accreting rate model of ecosystem resilience (WARMER) at ten year intervals from 2010-2110 Digital elevation model outputs from wetland accreting rate model of ecosystem resilience (WARMER) at ten year intervals from 2010-2110. Baseline elevations were collected with RTK GPS units and LiDAR elevations in non-surveyed areas were also corrected using LEAN method. Historical accretion rates were collected at each salt marsh and used to parameterize WARMER, predicting future elevations. These data support the following publication: Rosencranz JA, Thorne KM, Buffington KJ, et al. Sea‐level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes. Ecol Evol. 2018;00:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4196 Types: Citation; Tags: California, Carpinteria, Mugu Lagoon, Remote Sensing, Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge, All tags... Sweetwater, Tijuana Estuary, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Upper Newport Bay, biota, dynamic salt marsh accretion model, environment, marsh, salt marsh, wetland ecosystems, Fewer tags Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Northwest CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, All tags... Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Mangrove Species’ Response to Sea-Level Rise Across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia Mangrove forests are likely vulnerable to accelerating sea-level rise; however, we lack the tools necessary to understand their future resilience. On the Pacific island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, mangroves are habitat to endangered species and provide critical ecosystem services that support local communities. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for mangroves that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation. The modeling framework was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from thirty 1-meter-deep soil cores dated with lead-210, more than 300 forest inventory plots, water-level monitoring, and differential... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Testing the interactive effects of flooding and salinity on tidal marsh plant productivity Tidal wetlands support plant communities that facilitate carbon storage, accrete soil, and provide habitat for terrestrial and aquatic species. Climate change is likely to alter estuaries through sea-level rise and changing precipitation patterns, although the ecological responses are uncertain. We were interested in plant responses to physiological stress induced by elevated water salinity and flooding conditions, which may be more prevalent under climate change. . We used a greenhouse experiment and factorial flooding (1, 12, 24, and 48 % time) and salinity (0, 5, 15, 30 PSU) treatments to evaluate the productivity responses of three emergent herbaceous species (Carex lyngbyei, Triglochin maritima, and Argentina... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Decomposition of plant litter in Pacific coast tidal marshes, 2014-2015 Decomposition of plant matter is one of the key processes affecting carbon cycling and storage in tidal wetlands. In this study, we evaluated the effects of factors related to climate change (temperature, inundation) and vegetation composition on rates of litter decay in seven tidal marsh sites along the Pacific coast. In 2014 we conducted manipulative experiments to test inundation effects on litter decay at Siletz Bay, OR and Petaluma marsh, CA. In 2015 we studied decay of litter in high and low elevation marshes at seven Pacific coast sites. These data support the following publication: Janousek, C.N., Buffington, K.J., Guntenspergen, G.R., Thorne, K.M., Dugger, B.D. and Takekawa, J.Y., 2017. Inundation, vegetation,... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Deschampsia cespitosa, Distichlis spicata, Pacific coast, Salicornia pacifica, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), All tags... carbon cycling, climate change, decomposition, inundation, organic matter, plant composition, sea-level change, tidal marsh, Fewer tags Rising Tides: Assessing Habitat Vulnerability for an Endangered Salt Marsh-Dependent Species with Sea-Level Rise Abstract (from SpringerLink): Salt marsh-dependent species are vulnerable to impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Site-specific differences in ecogeomorphic processes result in different SLR vulnerabilities. SLR impacts to Ridgway’s rail (Rallus obsoletus) of Southern California (SC) and San Francisco Bay (SF), U.S.A. could foreshadow SLR effects on other coastal endemic species. Salt marsh vulnerabilities to SLR were forecasted across 14 study sites using the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience, which accounts for changes in above and belowground marsh processes. Changes in suitable habitat for rail were projected with MaxEnt. Under a high (166 cm/100 yr) SLR scenario, current extent of suitable habitat... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation USGS Pacific Tidal Marsh Soil Core Surveys, Pacific Northwest US, 2013-14 To parameterize accretion for SLR models, we measured historic rates of mineral and organic matter accumulation at each site by collecting deep soil cores with a Russian peat borer. At each site, we obtained cores in each of three vegetation zones: low, medium, and high marsh. Two replicate cores were sampled from each station for a total of 6 cores per site (except Coos Bay where 7 cores were taken). Coring locations were determined by RTK GPS elevation and tidal inundation data. Transects for core sampling were determined in ArcGIS, using a digitial elevation model and site-specific tidal datums to choose station locations below MHW (low), between MHW and MHHW (mid), and above MHHW (high). Sediment cores were... Categories: Data; Tags: Bandon, Cesium-137, Coos Bay, Grays Harbor, Nisqually, All tags... Northwest CASC, Oregon, Pacific Northwest, Port Susan, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Siletz, Skokomish, Washington, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Willapa, isotope dating, sediment core, soil accretion rates, soil core, Fewer tags Incorporation of uncertainty to improve projections of tidal wetland elevation and carbon accumulation with sea-level rise Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Bias-Corrected Topobathymetric Elevation Model for South Florida, 2018 Accurate elevation data in coastal ecosystems are crucial for understanding vulnerability to sea-level rise. Lidar has become increasingly available; however, in tidal wetlands such as mangroves and salt marsh, vertical bias from dense vegetation reduces accuracy of the delivered 'base earth' products. To increase accuracy of elevation models across south Florida, we applied the LEAN technique to six different lidar collections from 2007-2018. On average, LEAN correction increased DEM accuracy by 46.1 percent, reducing the vertical bias. After correction and post-processing, the DEMs were merged together with a bathymetric dataset to create a seamless topobathy product. Tags: Bathymetry and Elevation, Florida, Remote Sensing, Southern Florida, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), All tags... digital elevation models, elevation, lidar, Fewer tags Mangrove Elevation and Species' Responses to Sea-level Rise Across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia (ver. 1.1, December 2021) Future sea-level rise poses a risk to mangrove forests. To better understand potential vulnerability, we developed a new numerical model of soil elevation for mangrove forests. We used the model to generate projections of elevation and mangrove forest composition change under four sea-level rise scenarios through 2100 (37, 52, 67, and 117 cm by 2100). We employed a data-driven modeling approach, utilizing new and existing data to inform model parameters. The model was calibrated using dated soil cores and used a spin-up period to establish the soil column prior to future projections. Additional field data, including water level monitoring and elevation surveys, were used to estimate the initial elevation of the... Categories: Data; Tags: Botany, Ecology, Pacific Ocean, Pohnpei, Senyavin Islands, All tags... Tidal Mangrove Forest, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), biota, sea-level change, Fewer tags