Arctic wetlands, where millions of local and migratory birds nest, are composed of a mosaic of ice wedge polygons, non-patterned tundra, and large vegetated drained thaw lake basins. Regional climate projections suggest that evapotranspiration, rainfall, and snowfall will increase, making it difficult to predict how surface water distribution might change and how habitats for the invertebrate resources used by waterbirds will be impacted. This study will focus on evaluating how climate change will affect the invertebrate community, and whether the change in climate (through changes in hydrology and surface energy balance) could induce a trophic mismatch that might alter the growth and survival of shorebird young. Our interdisciplinary team will focus on understanding these relationships on wetland areas around Barrow, Alaska, where collaborators have on-going studies investigating snow cover, hydrology, invertebrate ecology, and nesting and brood-rearing shorebirds. Our Cryosphere and Hydrology team will use observations and physically-based modeling to assess and model the controls of climate on the thermal and hydrologic regime of terrestrial landforms and ponds of the Arctic Coastal Plain. Using the tuned model, they will then project how future changes in climate might affect physical conditions in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Our Invertebrate team will use experimental trials to evaluate how predicted changes in pond melt-off dates and thermal dynamics affect the timing, growth and development (and thus emergence and abundance) of the predominant invertebrate taxa that serve as primary food resources for migrant waterbirds. Our Shorebird team will evaluate whether a mismatch between invertebrate emergence and shorebird egg-laying and hatch currently exists, and experimentally enhance or create a mismatch so as to be able to evaluate how the growth and survival of young hatching in and out of sync with the invertebrates are impacted. Results from the Invertebrate team will indicate how much of a mismatch may occur in the future based on changes in invertebrate growth and development, as predicted by the cryosphere-hydrology model. Our Modeling team will evaluate the overall potential effects of trophic mismatch on the relevant shorebird populations by linking results from the shorebird growth and survival study to a set of shorebird population models. These analyses will inform management authorities about impacts climate change may have on a variety of shorebird species, and if impacts are found, which factors may predispose shorebird species to be more or less tolerant of climate change. Such knowledge will ultimately allow managers to make strategic decisions that incorporate climate change effects in planning efforts.
