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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Streamflow in the Colorado River is heavily influenced by high-elevation snowpack. Warming temperatures in spring can reduce snow-fed flows, with serious implications for the water supplies that support communities and wildlife. While it is already well-known that precipitation has a significant influence on river flow, recent observations suggest that temperature and the amount of water in soil may also influence streamflow. In the face of a changing climate, it is important that resource managers understand how factors such as changing temperatures and precipitation will affect this vital water source. To address this need, researchers are examining records of streamflow, temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation...
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California’s Central Valley is a nexus for water resources in the state, draining the Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds. Urban centers, agricultural operations, and the environment all compete for limited water, and demand is expected to only increase as the population grows and agriculture intensifies. At the same time, the water supply is projected to decrease as temperatures rise, precipitation patterns change, and the frequency of extreme droughts increases. The Central Valley also provides critical wetland habitats to migratory waterbirds, and wetland managers require information on how to best use water resources to support wildlife objectives, particularly during drought. This project seeks to...
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Forests across the southwestern U.S. are crucial components of recreation and play an important role in state and local economies. Healthy forests also provide needed habitat for many wildlife species and contribute many other important services to our planet. “Hotter droughts” (otherwise normal droughts whose effects on ecosystems are exacerbated by higher temperatures) are an emerging climate change threat to forests with some of their earliest and strongest appearances happening in the Southwest. The Leaf to Landscape project uses California’s unusually hot drought as a potential preview of the future, allowing us to collect information that will help guide forest management in the face of a warming climate....
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In many places around the world, spring events, like warming temperatures, are coming earlier and fall events are coming later than they have in the past. These changes have implications for the phenology, or the timing of natural life events (e.g. the timing of plant flowering in Spring or leaves falling in Autumn), of many plant species. However, not all species and regions are changing at the same rate, which can lead to mismatches (e.g. between the emergence of plants and pollinators in early spring). Many interactions in nature depend on timing and, as such, phenology affects nearly all aspects of the environment, including the abundance, distribution, and diversity of organisms, ecosystem services, food webs,...
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In the dry southwestern United States, snowmelt plays a crucial role as a water source for people, vegetation, and wildlife. However, snow droughts significantly lower snow accumulations, disrupting these critical water supplies for local communities and ecosystems. Despite its large influence on land- and water-resource management, snow drought has only recently been properly defined and its historical distribution and effects on key natural resources are essentially unknown. To remedy this serious knowledge gap, project researchers are examining the causes, effects, and forecastability of snow drought to provide needed scientific information and guidance to planners and decision makers. The central goals of...
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The goals of this project were to: (1) produce a state-of-the-art assessment and synthesis of climate change projections, impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptive capacity, and prospects for mitigation and adaptation actions in the Southwest in support of the regional contribution to the National Climate Assessment; (2) develop an inventory of federal partners and stakeholders involved with climate adaptation programs, and (3) forge stronger bonds between the DOI-SW CSC, the three NOAA-RISAs in the Southwest, and the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives.
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Resource managers must balance the impacts of competing management decisions on multiple, interacting natural systems. Hydrologic and ecological processes, such as groundwater fluctuations and riparian evapotranspiration, can be tightly coupled. Ideally, managers would have tools and models that include all processes to better understand how each management action would propagate through the environment. Because resources are limited, management tools that include only the most important processes may be more realistic. However, in some cases, omitting some interactions can lead to significant errors in predictions of hydrologic outcomes and ecological function, severely limiting a manager’s ability to identify...
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A major goal of the Climate Science Center network is to conduct science and develop timely science products and tools that are directly relevant and useful to decision-makers and natural resource managers. A crucial first step in producing this actionable science is understanding the highest priority science and information needs of natural resource managers and planners. Through this project, the Southwest Climate Science Center will conduct a structured rapid assessment to identify and understand manager needs and priorities in the Southwest region. The project team will also work directly with managers and stakeholders to assess their perceptions regarding the co-production of science and preferences on...
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The goal of this project was to: (a) archive the relevant AR5 model output data for the southwest region; (b) downscale daily temperature and precipitation to 12 X 12 km cell spatial resolution over the Southwest; (c) assess the precision (degree of agreement) of the simulated models; (d) assess the direction and magnitude of change in projections between AR4 and AR5, as well as assess projections of key extreme climatic events (i.e., extreme drought, extreme seasonal precipitation, extreme high and low temperature events); and (e) assess critical ecosystem impacts (i.e., climate water deficit and fire; hydrological condition of major river systems; impacts on highly valued species).
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The desert grasslands of the southwestern United States support many wildlife species of management concern and economic value. The American pronghorn, for example, is a game species that contributes to local and state economies. Climate extremes, including severe droughts, heat waves, and atmospheric river events, are expected to occur more frequently in the Southwest. These extremes can affect the availability of food and water needed by wildlife. Wildlife management agencies and conservation organizations need information on resource availability for wildlife under future climate scenarios to design effective management strategies to sustain wildlife populations. Project scientists are working with the Arizona...
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To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.
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This project links climate, hydrological, and ecological changes over the next 30 years in a Great Basin watershed. In recent years, climate variability on annual and decadal time scales has been recognized as greater than commonly perceived with increasing impacts on ecosystems and available water resources. Changes in vegetation distribution, composition and productivity resulting from climate change affect plant water use, which in turn can alter stream flow, groundwater and eventually available water resources. To better understand these links, project researchers implemented two computer-based numeric models in the Cleve Creek watershed in the Schell Creek Range, east of Ely, Nevada. The application of the...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, CASC, Cleve Creek, Climate, Completed, All tags...
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The Colorado River is the dominant water source for the southwestern United States, crossing through seven states before reaching Mexico. The river supplies water to approximately 36 million people, irrigates nearly six million acres of farmland within and beyond the basin, and contributes an estimated 26 billion dollars each year to the region’s recreational economy. Yet the Colorado River’s water supply is already fully allocated, meaning that the economic and environmental health of the region is closely tied to the river’s streamflow. Climate projections for the Southwest show a future marked by chronic drought and substantial reductions in streamflow. The region has already been impacted by climate change,...
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The Salt and Verde river basins in northeastern Arizona are a vital source of fresh water for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area and for two Native American tribes who rely on the basins’ natural resources for their livelihoods. The region depends on winter rain and snow to replenish the river basins’ water supply. Atmospheric rivers – long, narrow channels in the atmosphere that carry water vapor from the Pacific Ocean – supply a substantial portion of this winter precipitation. While atmospheric rivers are critical for maintaining water resources and preventing drought, they occasionally cause extreme storms that lead to flooding. Scientists project that climate change will affect the intensity and frequency...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
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Changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change (and associated droughts, wildfires, extreme storms etc.) threaten important water sources, forests, wildlife habitat, and ecosystems across the Southwest and throughout the entire U.S. These threats cross political and man-made boundaries and therefore need to be addressed at larger landscape-level and regional scales. “Landscape conservation design” is one method that can be used by land and resource managers to support large scale conservation and ensure that small scale and local actions contribute to a landscape level vision. The Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) is working to develop a shared vision for conservation action in the...
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Fire in the western U.S. poses one of the greatest threats to human and ecological communities alike. In fact, fire management is the largest single expenditure of land management funds on federal lands. Now, climate change is altering wildfire patterns. Climate change in the West is creating warmer and drier conditions, resulting in an increase in the amount of dead vegetation available to fuel fires. This project sought to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers (a) examined how climate change impacts wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identified...
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The Colorado River is a crucial water source for millions of people in the Southwest. Warming temperatures, clearly documented in climate records for the Colorado River basin, are having an impact on the amount of annual streamflow yielded from rain and snow. Recent work has revealed that warming temperatures have played an increasingly important role over the past decades, both exacerbating droughts and dampening the effects of wet winters on high stream flows. Understanding and anticipating how warming temperatures will influence future water supply in the Colorado River basin is increasingly important for resource management, particularly in light of recent drought conditions. The overarching goals of this...
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In 2017, California was experiencing its most severe drought in over a millennia. Low rainfall and record high temperatures resulted in increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks across the West. Though land managers scrambled to respond, they lacked information needed to make informed decisions. Focusing on California’s central and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, this project seeks to determine whether a key forest management practice – forest thinning via prescribed fire – can help forests better survive drought. Prescribed fire is commonly used in the western U.S. to remove potential wildfire fuel, such as small trees and shrubs. It is also thought that this act of selectively removing trees helps...
map background search result map search result map Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region Synthesis of Current Science and Assessment of Science Needs for Adaptation in the Southwest Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Understanding and Projecting Changes in Climate, Hydrology, and Ecology in the Great Basin for the Next 30 Years Examining the Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on Colorado River Water Resources: Reconstructing the Past to Understand the Future Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events Assessing the Impacts of Restoration Efforts on Water and Natural Systems in a Changing World Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin The Impact of Drought on Waterbirds and Their Wetland Habitats in California’s Central Valley Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains? Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts Assessing Southwest Resources, Future Climate Scenarios, and Possible Adaptation Actions to Support Conservation Planning Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests Anticipating Future Impacts of Temperature on Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Understanding Changes to the Timing of Natural Events (Phenology) for Plants in the Water-Limited Southwest Assessing Stakeholder Needs for Effective Actionable Science Understanding and Projecting Changes in Climate, Hydrology, and Ecology in the Great Basin for the Next 30 Years Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts Assessing the Impacts of Restoration Efforts on Water and Natural Systems in a Changing World Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events The Impact of Drought on Waterbirds and Their Wetland Habitats in California’s Central Valley Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains? Examining the Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on Colorado River Water Resources: Reconstructing the Past to Understand the Future Anticipating Future Impacts of Temperature on Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Projecting Future Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region Forecasting Resource Availability for Wildlife Populations in Desert Grasslands under Future Climate Extremes Understanding Changes to the Timing of Natural Events (Phenology) for Plants in the Water-Limited Southwest Assessing Stakeholder Needs for Effective Actionable Science Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests Synthesis of Current Science and Assessment of Science Needs for Adaptation in the Southwest Assessing Southwest Resources, Future Climate Scenarios, and Possible Adaptation Actions to Support Conservation Planning