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Hawaiʹi’s most widespread native tree, ʹōhiʹa lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawaiʹi Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ʹŌhiʹa Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawaiʹi Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ʹōhiʹa. This data set is a georeferenced raster file, containing the projected potential presence of C.lukuohia across the main Hawaiian Islands using climatic...
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We created a comprehensive estimate of potential distribution for a subset of 17 ecosystem modifying invasive plants (EMIPs) in Hawaiʻi. This work uses methods that integrate a wide set of data sources including agency and citizen science data, but perhaps more importantly, the integration of regional and global distribution information for these species. We built three sets of ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) for each species. We first built global and regional ensemble distribution models for each species. Then, to create a comprehensive estimate of potential invasive species distribution for our study species in Hawaiʻi, we built nested regional models that integrate our global and regional ensemble...
Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. This simple analysis allowed us to map the potential risk of excess rainfall across the...
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Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we show steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our approach is based on three steps: 1) Using a standardized baseline period, comparing available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets (if available); 2) bias correcting projections using observation-based data; and 3) creating ensembles to make use of the...
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Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we show steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our approach is based on three steps: 1) Using a standardized baseline period, comparing available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets (if available); 2) bias correcting projections using observation-based data; and 3) creating ensembles to make use of the...
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We created a comprehensive estimate of potential distribution for a subset of 17 ecosystem modifying invasive plants (EMIPs) in Hawaiʻi. This work uses methods that integrate a wide set of data sources including agency and citizen science data, but perhaps more importantly, the integration of regional and global distribution information for these species. We developed transferable and comparable general species distribution models (SDMs) at global and regional scales based on a minimum set of biologically plausible predictors. We built three sets of ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) for each species. We first built global and regional ensemble distribution models for each species. Then, to create a comprehensive...
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Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we apply steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for climate change impact studies in Hawaii. Our approach is based on three steps: 1) Using a standardized baseline period, comparing available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets (if available); 2) bias correcting projections using observation-based data; and 3) creating ensembles to make use of the...
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Hawaiʹi’s most widespread native tree, ʹōhiʹa lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawaiʹi Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ʹŌhiʹa Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawaiʹi Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ʹōhiʹa. This data set is a georeferenced raster file, containing the projected suitability for C.lukuohia across the main Hawaiian Islands using climatic variables...
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We integrated recent climate model projections developed for the State of Hawai’i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used observation-based data for the baseline bioclimatic variables from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawai’i. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled future projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research...
The associated uncertainties of future climate projections are one of the biggest obstacles to overcome in studies exploring the potential regional impacts of future climate shifts. In remote and climatically complex regions, the limited number of available downscaled projections may not provide an accurate representation of the underlying uncertainty in future climate or the possible range of potential scenarios. Consequently, global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world. However, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we explore the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2)...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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We created a comprehensive estimate of potential distribution for a subset of 17 ecosystem modifying invasive plants (EMIPs) in Hawaiʻi. This work uses methods that integrate a wide set of data sources including agency and citizen science data, but perhaps more importantly, the integration of regional and global distribution information for these species. We developed transferable and comparable general species distribution models (SDMs) at global and regional scales based on a minimum set of biologically plausible predictors. The global models were developed for each species using all global location data and pseudo-absences (PAs), excluding those found in Hawaiʻi, and using WorldClim2 bioclimatic variables (1...
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We integrated recent climate model projections developed for the State of Hawai’i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used observation-based data for the baseline bioclimatic variables from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawai’i. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled future projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research...
In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land-cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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We integrated recent climate model projections developed for the State of Hawai’i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used observation-based data for the baseline bioclimatic variables from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawai’i. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled future projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research...
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Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we show steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our approach is based on three steps: 1) Using a standardized baseline period, comparing available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets (if available); 2) bias correcting projections using observation-based data; and 3) creating ensembles to make use of the...
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Hawaiʹi’s most widespread native tree, ʹōhiʹa lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawaiʹi Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ʹŌhiʹa Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawaiʹi Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ʹōhiʹa. This data release consists of two rasters, one containing the projected suitability for C.lukuohia and another consisting of modeled presence/absence...
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Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we show steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our approach is based on three steps: 1) Using a standardized baseline period, comparing available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets (if available); 2) bias correcting projections using observation-based data; and 3) creating ensembles to make use of the...
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We created a comprehensive estimate of potential distribution for a subset of 17 ecosystem modifying invasive plants (EMIPs) in Hawaiʻi. This work uses methods that integrate a wide set of data sources including agency and citizen science data, but perhaps more importantly, the integration of regional and global distribution information for these species. We developed transferable and comparable general species distribution models (SDMs) at global and regional scales based on a minimum set of biologically plausible predictors. The regional models were developed for each species using only regional location data and pseudo-absences (PAs) wihtin the extent of the main Hawaiian Islands and regionally derived bioclimatic...
    map background search result map search result map Hawaiian Islands Ceratocystis rapid ohia death spatial analysis 2019 Modeled potential presence of Ceratocystis luhuohia across Hawaiian Islands Hawaiian Islands Ceratocystis luhuohia modeled habitat suitability Hawaiian Islands bioclimatic variables for baseline and future climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands 19 bioclimatic variables for baseline and future (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands annual and mean seasonal variables for baseline and future (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands downscaled climate projections for baseline (1983-2012), mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios Hawaiian Islands baseline climate projections for mean annual temperature and precipitation from 1983-2012 Downscaled CHELSA projections for the Hawaiian Islands under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios Downscaled WorldClim2 projections for the Hawaiian Islands under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios Hawaiian Islands downscaled ensemble projections for future (2040-2059 and 2060-2079) climate scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants based on global and regional data for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands global habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands regional habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands nested habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands bioclimatic variables for baseline and future climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands 19 bioclimatic variables for baseline and future (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands annual and mean seasonal variables for baseline and future (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants based on global and regional data for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands global habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands regional habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands nested habitat suitability models for highly invasive plants for baseline climate scenario (1990-2009) Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios Hawaiian Islands Ceratocystis rapid ohia death spatial analysis 2019 Modeled potential presence of Ceratocystis luhuohia across Hawaiian Islands Hawaiian Islands Ceratocystis luhuohia modeled habitat suitability Hawaiian Islands downscaled climate projections for baseline (1983-2012), mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios Hawaiian Islands baseline climate projections for mean annual temperature and precipitation from 1983-2012 Downscaled CHELSA projections for the Hawaiian Islands under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios Downscaled WorldClim2 projections for the Hawaiian Islands under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios Hawaiian Islands downscaled ensemble projections for future (2040-2059 and 2060-2079) climate scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5)